DID TIME INCONSISTENCY CONTRIBUTE TO THE GREAT INFLATION? EVIDENCE FROM THE FOMC TRANSCRIPTS

We use evidence from detailed records of FOMC deliberations to argue that time inconsistency theory can help explain the excessive monetary expansion that characterized Arthur Burns's tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman (1970–1978). The records suggest that the Fed perceived a Phillips curve tradeoff and political pressures that made it difficult to adopt disinflationary policies; the tendency toward excessively expansionary policy was exacerbated by the short-run planning horizon the Committee faced in each of its meetings. We argue that comparative static predictions of the time inconsistency model are consistent with the rise of inflation during the Burns years and its subsequent fall.     

The Environmental Supply of Farm Households: A Flexible Willingness to Accept Model

The purpose of the paper is toanalyse farmers' participation inenvironmental schemes, which are gaining agrowing importance within the Europeanagricultural policy. These schemes areimplemented through voluntary contracts thatpay farmers for the provision of environmentalservices. The microeconomic model that isdeveloped is a farm household model thatincorporates the producer and consumerbehaviour of the farmer to optimise hisenvironmental supply considering that theenvironmental service that he is supplying alsohas the characteristics of a public good. Defined as the difference between the profitloss in providing the environmental service andthe willingness to pay to consume this service,the household's willingness to accept (WTA)is compared with two flexible WTA measures thataccount for the technological flexibility ofthe environmental supply. Data come from asurvey of an agri-environmental schemeimplemented in the Walloon region of Belgiumsince 1995 and intended to protect the nestingof some endangered bird species. Econometricresults show that contingent valuation is areliable method to reveal the behaviours offarmers facing the invitation to participate inthis scheme. They also confirm that farmerbehaviour is also influenced by environmental preference.     

Research on Office Markets

The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association is pleased to acknowledge the support of the Homer Hoyt Institute for this special issue on office markets. I am particularly grateful to Maury Seldin, President of the Homer Hoyt Institute, for recognizing the importance of this emerging and timely research area. His support for office market research and his ability to bring together academics, practitioners, and crucial data constitute a valuable contribution to this research area. I also acknowledge the advice and assistance of the former editors of the AREUEA Journal, Donald Haurin and Patric Hendershott; and the current editors, Dennis Capozza, James Shilling, and Kerry Vandell.     

Ethnicity and Job Tenure in a Segmented Labour Market: The Case for New Zealand

The labour market experience of 1984–1992 turned on end the prevailing notion of 'personal security' within New Zealand, founded as it was upon guaranteed employment (and full-employment in the aggregate). This study examines, in a systematic fashion and within a dynamic setting, why job tenure varied consistently over this period between two ethnic groups, the first comprised of European/Pakeha workers, and the second New Zealand Maori and Pacific Islanders.
Econometric analyses of total, voluntary and involuntary separations indicate that the low relative job security of Maori/Pacific Islanders cannot be attributed solely to differential attributes that, on the one hand represent such individuals' gender/age distribution, qualifications, and conditions of employment, and on the other provide controls for the relative competitive positions of their employers. Rather, other factors, such as worker segmentation, are likely operative within the New Zealand labour market, conditions that, on net, work to the disadvantage of non-Europeans.     

Causality in futures markets

This study tests causal hypotheses emanating from theories of futures markets by utilizing methods appropriate for disproving causal relationships with observational data. The hedging pressure theory of futures markets risk premiums, the generalized version of the normal backwardation theory of Keynes, is rejected. Theories predicting that the activity levels of speculators or uninformed traders affect levels of price volatility, either positively or negatively, are also rejected. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1039–1057, 2006     

An investigation into the quantitative properties of the specific factors model of international trade

This paper presents a specification of a fundamental and popular model in the theory of international trade, the specific factors model. Data from 24 sectors of the Japanese economy are used. Simulated comparative static elasticities extend basic trade theory by uncovering and postulating the following quantitative properties:

1. (i) near factor price equalization with free trade;

2. (ii) high levels of specialization and trade across trading partners; and

3. (iii) concentrated benefits and diffused costs of protection.

Free trade can thus be expected to nearly equalize prices of similar inputs across countries and lead to high levels of specialization and trade.