Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan

This paper studies the dynamics of worker flows in Japan between 1980 and 2009. We construct gross worker flows data using the monthly Labor Force Survey. Our data enables us to examine the size and cyclical patterns of the flows and transition rates between employment, unemployment, and not being-in-the labor force. We find that the cyclical pattern of worker flows is similar to that found in other countries; however, worker flows in Japan are generally smaller than those in the US and European countries. We also decompose changes in unemployment into contributions from unemployment inflow and outflow rates. We find that both inflow and outflow rates significantly affect variations in unemployment.     

Oligopoly with a large number of competitors: asymmetric limit result

We address how profitable innovation is in a competitive market by investigating the asymmetric oligopoly model in which 1 firm (innovator) has a cost advantage that is not drastic enough for her to become a monopolist, and by inducing asymmetric limit outcomes when the number of the other firms (laggard firms) goes to infinity. If the innovator is the Stackelberg leader, two cases can arise: (i) the innovator behaves as in the competitive market or (ii) she occupies the entire market but cannot make the price. If we consider Cournot competition, the innovator becomes the partial monopolist. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Real purchasing power in the neoclassical monetary growth model

In the one sector neoclassical monetary growth model, the balanced growth path under perfect foresight is a saddle point. The paper demonstrates that this instability problem can be resolved by entering real purchasing power into the liquidity preference function as well as into the consumption function. This process allows an additional mechanism based on income effects in money demand by which a change in real balances can influence the growth path. Stability now depends critically on the size of such income effects given wealth effects from money demand. If stability is restored, the nature of the traditional non-neutrality of money must be qualified.     

Does fiscal policy really matter in the context of variable prices?

Blinder and Solow's crowding-out analysis is extended by allowing wealth effects of debt accumulation on both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Two questions are reexamined; (1) the compatibility relationship between the long-run stability and the sign of the instantaneous money and bond multipliers, and (2) the long-run relative expansionary effect of bond financing. Without capital accumulation, real crowding-out may become compatible with stability under both money and bond financing, while nominal crowding-out is not. Normally, this is also true with capital accumulation. Furthermore, bond financing is not necessarily more expansionary than money financing in either real or nominal terms.     

Environmental Policy in the Presence of Induced Technological Change

We examine the hypothesis that induced technological change (ITC) can dramatically lower the cost of a carbon tax in a static optimal tax model. The research and development sector is represented by an aggregate stock of energy-saving technology, which acts as a weak substitute with a polluting resource in the energy generation sector. Using this model, we analytically show how ITC occurs and affects the cost of a carbon tax. Applying quantitative estimates of the size of ITC to numerical simulations calibrated to the US economy, we find that existing empirical evidence can reduce the welfare cost of environmental tax reform by 12%. Our tests of alternative parameters show that this result is highly sensitive to the assumptions used, suggesting that ITC could result in much larger reductions in cost.     

Estimation for multivariate stable distributions with generalized empirical likelihood

This paper considers the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) method for estimating the parameters of the multivariate stable distribution. The GEL method is considered to be an extension of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The multivariate stable distributions are widely applicable as they can accommodate both skewness and heavy tails. We treat the spectral measure, which summarizes scale and asymmetry, by discretization. In order to estimate all the model parameters simultaneously, we apply the estimating function constructed by equating empirical and theoretical characteristic functions. The efficacy of the proposed GEL method is demonstrated in Monte Carlo studies. An illustrative example involving daily returns of market indexes is also included.     

THE MARKET SELECTS THE WRONG FIRMS IN THE LONG RUN*

We consider the effects of free entry on the market structure and social welfare of an asymmetric Cournot oligopoly. Even if we allow for the existence of different types of firms initially, only one type (in almost all cases) can survive in the long run. Free entry leads an economy to a symmetric equilibrium, in which the excess entry theorem holds. Further, we consider the socially optimal policy for this economy. In cases of either (i) a concave demand (which implies strategic substitutability) or (ii) strategic complementarity (which implies a convex demand), the type of firms that should remain in the market to achieve social optimality does not necessarily coincide with the type of firms that will survive in the long run. The market may select not only the wrong number of firms but also the wrong type of firms in the long run.     

Endogenous technological change,income distribution,and unemployment with inter-class conflict

This paper presents a Kaleckian growth model that incorporates endogenous technological change. The model endogenously determines the rate of capacity utilization, the rate of economic growth, income distribution, and the employment rate in addition to technological change. The paper shows that whether or not an increase in the relative bargaining power of workers raises the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate depends on which regime is realized in the long-run equilibrium. If, for example, the long-run equilibrium corresponds to the wage-led growth regime, a rise in the relative bargaining power of workers leads to a decline in the unemployment rate. This result is never obtained from the mainstream NAIRU model.