From plan to market: On the nature of the transformation crisis

From Plan to Market: On the Nature of the Transformation Crisis. — Traditional neoclassical theory is ill-suited to explain why the transition from a grossly distorted to a far more rational economic system is going along with a fall in value added in Europe’s emerging market economies. Whereas Keynesian-type arguments, including the credit-crunch hypothesis, may account for some features of the exact time profile of the slump, the transformation crisis itself cannot be explained by these considerations. The paper argues that an institutional near-vacuum is a major cause of the crisis. While the old institutions for coordinating a complex pattern of economic activities are defunct, the new and ultimately far superior arrangements are not yet firmly established. The resulting institutional deficiencies, together with some inconsistencies in the time profile of the transformation process, impair an effective and reliable coordination of an extended division of labour in space and time.     

R&;D and Exporting: A Comparison of British and Irish Firms

This paper investigates the two-way relationship between R&D and export activity. In particular, we concern ourselves with the question whether R&D stimulates exports and, perhaps more importantly, whether export activity leads to increasing innovative activity in terms of R&D (learning-by-exporting). We use two unique firm level databases for Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland and compare the results for these two countries. We find that previous exporting experience enhances the innovative capability of Irish firms. Conversely, no strong learning-by-exporting effects are found for British firms. Arguably part of the differences between Ireland and Britain are attributable to different, cross-country exporting patterns where Irish firms have a greater interface with OECD markets. JEL no.  F14, F23     

The Decision to Persist with Underperforming Alliances: The Role of Trust and Control

abstract We draw on theories of persistence to develop a model of alliance managers' decisions towards persisting in underperforming alliances based on their concomitant consideration of the control and trust in those alliances. We test the model using experimental data based on 2,816 decisions nested within 88 alliance managers. We find that output, behavioural and social control, competence and goodwill trust, and interactions between trust and control variables significantly explain alliance managers' decisions to persist in underperforming alliances. We discuss the implications of these findings for the control, trust and strategic alliance literatures.     

A lender-based theory of collateral

We consider an imperfectly competitive loan market in which a local relationship lender has an information advantage vis-à-vis distant transaction lenders. Competitive pressure from the transaction lenders prevents the local lender from extracting the full surplus from projects. As a result, the local lender inefficiently rejects marginally profitable projects. Collateral mitigates the inefficiency by increasing the local lender's payoff from precisely those marginally profitable projects that she inefficiently rejects. The model predicts that, controlling for observable borrower risk, collateralized loans are more likely to default ex post, which is consistent with the empirical evidence. The model also predicts that borrowers for whom local lenders have a relatively smaller information advantage face higher collateral requirements, and that technological innovations that narrow the information advantage of local lenders, such as small business credit scoring, lead to a greater use of collateral in lending relationships.     

Employment dynamics in foreign and domestic plants: Evidence from Irish manufacturing

In this paper we investigate the driving factors behind the diverse employment performances of indigenous and foreign‐owned (multinational) plants in Ireland. Examining aggregate job creation and job destruction rates we find that the net gain of the foreign sector in Irish manufacturing employment was due to a considerably lower rate of job destruction and a slightly higher job creation rate. An econometric investigation into the determinants of net employment growth at the plant level lends further credence to the argument that foreign plants performed better than domestic plants. Even after controlling for a number of plant and sector specific effects, multinationals experienced greater net employment growth rates than their indigenous counterparts.     

A Simple and Intuitive Method to Solve Small Rational Expectations Models

We present a nonlinear solution method of saddlepoint dynamics in discrete time optimization problems. It is based on the backward attractivity of the stable manifold and is very easy to implement. After an introduction to the general method we present two applications. First, we consider the deterministic neoclassical growth model and demonstrate accuracy and stability of the method. Second, we solve a basic real business cycle model.revised version received July 2, 2003     

Implied correlation indices and volatility forecasting

Implied volatility indices are an important measure for ‘market fear’ and well-known in academia and practice. Correlation is still paid less attention even though the CBOE started to calculate implied correlation indices for the S&P500 in 2009. However, the literature especially on cross-country dependencies and applications is still quite thin. We are closing this gap by constructing an implied correlation index for the DAX and taking a deeper look at the (intercontinental) relationship between equity, volatility and correlation indices. Additionally, we show that implied correlation could improve implied volatility forecasting.