Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

区港合一与厦门港城经济发展

区港合一指的是保税区、港口码头作业区实行一体化运作,在货物监管上采取一线放开、二线管住、区内宽松的自由贸易模式。按照构想,在厦门实行区、港合一,主要是充分利用象屿保税区坐落在东渡港区、区内无居民而便于实行隔离监管的优势,将象屿保税区与东渡港区进行组合,形成一体     

Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

诚信从这里走来

众所周知,注册会计师是市场经济秩序的重要维护者.独立、客观、公正地出具审计报告是其基本职责,也是注册会计师职业道德规范的基本要求.离开公正、诚信,会计信息就失去价值且危害社会.