The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes

This paper examines the effect of sovereign credit rating change announcements on the CDS spreads of the event countries, and their spillover effects on other emerging economies’ CDS premiums. We find that positive events have a greater impact on CDS markets in the two-day period surrounding the event, and are more likely to spill over to other emerging countries. Alternatively, CDS markets anticipate negative events, and previous changes in CDS premiums can be used to estimate the probability of a negative credit event. The transmission mechanisms for positive events are the common creditor and competition in trade markets.     

Return generating processes of long-term bonds and measurement of risk: Theory and empirical tests

Using a continuous-time framework, Kazemi (1992) shows that changes in prices of long-term bonds could be perfectly correlated with changes in the representative investor's marginal utility of wealth. Therefore, the equilibrium expected excess return on any security would be proportional to its covariance with changes in prices of long-term bonds. The present paper first extends the above result to a discrete time framework and shows that there are significant differences between the continuous time and discrete time versions of the model. Second, we test an empirical implication of this result; the evidence supports the theoretical model.     

Industrialization in an age of globalization: some comparisons between East and South East Asia and Latin America

The contrast between industrial experience in East and South East Asia and Latin America is dramatic. Whilst a first generation of newly industrialized economies in East Asia grew rapidly on the basis of manufacturing expansion, the longer‐established industries of Latin America have performed relatively poorly by most indicators. This paper utilizes data from UN and World Bank databases to assess relative performance since the early 1980s. It shows that whilst there is some evidence of modest catch‐up in efficiency terms for Latin America in the 1990s, this is not enough to make serious inroads into the loss of international competitiveness experienced by the region in earlier decades.     

Demand estimation for the Iranian automobile industry

The main contribution of this paper is a simple theoretical framework and empirical estimations explaining the behavior of the manufacturers. The paper focuses on the frequently used methods of demand estimation for discrete choice models to analyze the Iranian automobile market. It shows how both major companies in Iran choose to produce lower quality products and why they still collusively charge high markups. Empirical estimations are based on Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) to predict marginal costs and markups. Estimation results also support the hypothesis that manufacturers are charging high markups. In addition, the counterfactual analysis carried out supports the view that both duopolist firms prefer to operate at lower quality rather than at higher quality production levels. They also collusively price their products. Furthermore, analyses are performed using the Multinomial Logit methodology to better understand the Iranian automobile market. Tastes of people with different genders and ages for some specific cars are explained, and the effects of population changes on auto demand are predicted.     

The Effect of Perceived Corporate Social Responsibility and Sustainable Human Resources on Employee Engagement with the Moderating Role of the Employer Brand

Employee Responsibilities and Rights Journal - Employee Engagement (EE) is an important aspect of human resources management, which is instrumental in the financial success of an organization....     

Rallying competencies in virtual communities: A study of core processes and user interest in open source software projects

Managing work practices has become one of the key challenges facing virtual communities. This paper seeks to broaden the research on virtual communities by applying the theory of competency rallying (TCR) in a longitudinal manner to examine the impact of task identification, task assignment, task execution and task management on user interest in open source software (OSS) projects defined by popularity and communication. The aim of this paper is: (1) re-conceptualizing the concept of user interest and broadening our understanding of user interest by incorporating users' post-usage behaviors, (2) examining the effect of various tasks involved in an OSS project's key processes of defect-fixing and feature-enhancement on user interest. The current study found that project popularity is positively influenced by task assignment, task execution and task management. Additionally, user communication was found to be positively impacted by task identification and task execution. The data collected from 1178 OSS projects in a longitudinal manner (at 3 time points over a period of 16 months) confirmed the expectations from TCR and also demonstrated that over time the effects that development of competencies and managing short term cooperative work have on project success might increase, while the impact of identifying market needs and marshalling competencies may not significantly change.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Evaluating a non-linear asset pricing model on international data

The paper analyses the ability of a non-linear asset pricing model suggested by Dittmar [Dittmar, R.F., 2002. Non-linear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and the cross-section of equity returns. Journal of Finance 57, 369-403] to explain the returns on international value and growth portfolios. For comparison we use competing pricing models such as the ICAPM, the exchange rate risk augmented ICAPM and the international two-factor model proposed by Fama and French [Fama, E.F., French, K. R., 1998. Value versus growth: The international evidence. Journal of Finance 53, 1975-1999]. All models are evaluated both unconditionally and conditionally. The models are evaluated by applying the Hansen and Jagannathan distance measure, and we also employ several alternative measures to ensure a robust comparison of the models. We find support for the model of Dittmar [Dittmar, R.F., 2002. Non-linear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and the cross-section of equity returns. Journal of Finance 57, 369-403]. Evaluated conditionally, this model successfully passes all the different diagnostic tests performed in the analysis.     

Food heritage and promoting herbal medicine-based niche tourism in Isfahan,Iran

The dynamic and competitive nature of tourism means that surviving commercially may require the emergence of niche tourism. This paper presents a niche tourism sector that emphasizes medicinal plants: herbal medicine-based tourism. This research has two major purposes: to investigate innovation and strategies for promoting herbal-medicine-based tourism and to demonstrate strategies for integrating tourism and medicinal plants for the purpose of education and knowledge transfer. This study was conducted in Isfahan, Iran. The results show that strategies (such as outdoor activities and tourist workshops in herbal medicine parks/farms or in the plants’ natural habitats; training tour guides who are familiar with botany and medicinal plants; and the integration of traditional medicine and tourism to emphasize the therapeutic properties of medical plants) can play a central role in tourism based upon learning about and consuming traditional medicinal herbs. The innovative strategies for promoting this specialized form of tourism are classified into five main categories.