Combining forecasts: An application to elections

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were more accurate than any individual component method, on average. The gains in accuracy from combining increased with the numbers of forecasts used, especially when these forecasts were based on different methods and different data, and in situations involving high levels of uncertainty. Such combining yielded error reductions of between 16% and 59%, compared to the average errors of the individual forecasts. This improvement is substantially greater than the 12% reduction in error that had been reported previously for combining forecasts.     

Let’s Not Go Down that Path Again: Lessons from the Past Applied to Immigrant-Targeted Discrimination

Immigrants, both legal and illegal, are a staple of the modern United States workplace. While much of the discussion of this fact centers on negative consequences for the U.S., far less attention has been paid to the detrimental impact on immigrants resulting from their workplace experiences, particularly relating to being targets of discrimination. In this article, we outline: a) a variety of types of workplace discrimination potentially relating to immigrant status; b) potential negative outcomes arising from said discrimination for both immigrant employees and their employers, and; c) how existing and predicted employment law standards place organizations in a legally vulnerable position when such discrimination goes unchecked. We further discuss implications of immigrant-targeted discrimination (ITD) for organizations and managers, and plausible extensions of workplace discrimination laws to specifically include ITD.     

Retroactive Liability or the Public Purse?

The article addresses the question of whether responsibility for pollution created in the past should be retroactively applied to firms, or if the costs of cleaning up existing pollution should be financed by the public. We show that making firms liable for retrospective environmental costs can weaken the incentive to take precautions against future environmental costs. This follows since public financing of these costs can lead to greater prospective risk deterrence by allowing firms to more fully internalize the costs of future environmental risks. However, an analysis of existing public financing approaches highlights a set of dangers associated with their practical use.     

Public sector health insurance trusts

Public sector associations have successfully developed and run employee health insurance pools for almost 30 years, providing members with savings and flexibility not available from commercial health insurance carriers. This article looks at the models, technical tools and governance philosophy that have contributed to their success in a very challenging business environment.     

The Role of the ACCC in Australian Competition Policy

This article examines the ACCC's enforcement of competition policy, the need to strengthen its anti-competitive provisions and the criticism of the ACCC's power.     

Vested interests: how American and Chinese venture capitalists view essential management skills

This paper used semi-structured interviews with 11 highly successful venture capitalists from both the United States and China to examine perceptions of the essential nature of management skills for successful technology-based small-to-medium sized venture exits. Findings suggest American VCs appear to maintain a more global management perspective, whereas Chinese VCs appear to maintain a perspective that is more China-centric, or market specific, in nature. This divergence in perceptions of essential managerial skills offers an opportunity for the convergence of understanding of universal best practices. Implications for theory and research are discussed. Such an understanding may provide critical implications for successful exits from cross border ventures.     

Diffusion of an Accounting Innovation: Fixed Asset Accounting in the NHS in Wales

As part of ‘New Public Management’ in the UK, changes have been made to the accounting regime. These changes typically involve the adoption of private sector accounting and budgeting approaches using accruals accounting. The process by which new ideas are spread is known as diffusion; this paper deals with the aspect of diffusion relating to the imposition of a new idea, accruals accounting, and how it is absorbed by the organisation, in this case the NHS in Wales. In particular, the paper questions whether the lack of secondary diffusion is limiting the influence of the new accounting approach. To analyse the level of diffusion we have focused on one aspect, namely, information on capital assets. The paper uses a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methods including in-depth interviews with senior managers at two NHS Trusts and a questionnaire survey with responses from senior finance staff in all NHS Trusts in Wales. We conclude that the diffusion of accruals accounting for fixed assets has been restricted to the primary level at the top layer of management and has not penetrated below that level. There is evidence of continuing managerial indifference to the accruals accounting consequences of owning fixed assets.