Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks

We develop an easy-to-implement method for forecasting a stationary autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) process subject to structural breaks with unknown break dates. We show that an ARFIMA process subject to a mean shift and a change in the long memory parameter can be well approximated by an autoregressive (AR) model and suggest using an information criterion (AIC or Mallows’ _Cp$C_p$) to choose the order of the approximate AR model. Our method avoids the issue of estimation inaccuracy of the long memory parameter and the issue of spurious breaks in finite sample. Insights from our theoretical analysis are confirmed by Monte Carlo experiments, through which we also find that our method provides a substantial improvement over existing prediction methods. An empirical application to the realized volatility of three exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of our forecasting procedure. The empirical success of the HAR-RV model can be explained, from an econometric perspective, by our theoretical and simulation results.     

Commodity prices and monetary policy in emerging East Asia during the global financial crisis

In the first phase of the global financial crisis, rising inflation was a major concern for emerging East Asian central banks. Coupled with a slowing US economy, regional central banks faced a monetary policy dilemma of either addressing higher inflation or supporting moderate growth. Higher food and fuel prices were the major drivers of headline inflation. Their causes, however, were a confluence of mutually reinforcing cyclical and structural factors. Understandably, different economies faced a different balance of risks between price stability and growth; but to attribute the inflation to supply shocks alone was misleading. This was unsettling given that inflation and inflation expectations were on the rise, and without much credibility, the reluctance of many central banks to raise interest rates risked repeating the mistake the advanced economies made in the 1970s. Without credibility, inflation expectations are unlikely to be well anchored. To gain credibility, a central bank must ‘walk‐the‐talk’, and understandably it must have the autonomy to do so.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra‐Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra‐Asia exchange rate volatility on intra‐Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.     

Trading Returns for the Weekend Effect Using Intraday Data

The existence of the weekend effect has been documented as early as 1885. This paper examines whether the serial dependence in returns around weekends and the magnitude of negative Friday returns can be used to produce superior trading returns. We find some success for this endeavor after accounting for transaction costs (including the bid/ask spread), especially when trading is confined to weekends for which there are large negative Friday returns and to positions opened on Friday afternoons. The effect of stocks trading ex-dividend on Mondays does not appear to bias our results.     

High Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: An Empirical Investigation of the Traditional and Revisionist Views

The paper seeks to determine whether high interest rates have had the effect of appreciating nominal exchange rates in three Asian countries. The authors use high-frequency data for Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand during the recent crisis and its aftermath to examine the relationship between the increase in interest rates and the behavior of exchange rates. It is found that raising interest rates has had a small impact on nominal exchange rates during the crisis period.     

Insurance coverage and health care consumers' use of emergency departments: has managed care made a difference?

How successful has managed care been in controlling costs and consumers' inappropriate use of health care services? This study compares national data from 1992 and 1996 to determine the effect of managed care on appropriateness of ED utilization. ED utilization was described in two ways as defined in Gooding, Smith, and Peyrot (1996): (1) urgency of visit (urgent vs. non-urgent), and (2) appropriateness of visit taking into account the care provided upon visits (including treatment and diagnostic procedures) and disposition of visit (admit, transfer, and discharge against medical advice). Potentially appropriate visits were the non-urgent cases at which treatment procedures and/or non-routine diagnostic procedures were performed. All urgent visits were defined as appropriate. Study results reveal that consumers' ED misuse changed in complex ways over the period examined. Contrary to our assumptions based on earlier research, the pattern of change was not the same for the two different measures of misuse. Non-urgent use decreased, as hypothesized, but there was an increase in non-urgent use which we have defined as inappropriate (i.e., no treatment and no non-routine diagnostic tests). ED misuse did not decrease more for insured than uninsured consumers, nor more for managed care than fee-for-service consumers. These findings bring into question the efficacy of efforts to address rising health care costs through controlling consumer utilization of services via managed care, efforts mirrored by many fee-for-service indemnity plans. Future research is needed to determine why this consumer misuse of the ED appears to continue and how the recent increase in the marketing of ED services may exacerbate this problem.     

Aggregate vs. disaggregate data analysis—a paradox in the estimation of a money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We use Japanese aggregate and disaggregate money demand data to show that conflicting inferences can arise. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of a liquidity trap. Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a cointegrating relation among aggregate variables when heterogeneous cointegration relations among micro units exist. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when such conditions are violated, it is possible to observe stable micro relations, but unit root phenomena among macro variables. Moreover, the prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data, is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations, and policy evaluation based on aggregate data ignoring heterogeneity in micro units can be grossly misleading. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitive cabbies: Ongoing sense-making within technology structuring

How may users make initial senses around new technology? This question requires an investigation beyond initial sense-making and into ongoing sense-making. An important research agenda is how users may make more senses from ongoing work structuring around technology. The previous studies largely examine how users make initial kinds of sense so as to form certain attitudes towards technology adoption. However, less known to current literature is that users also make ongoing senses as they extensively interact with technology in practice over time. This article presents a qualitative study of the ongoing adoption of CabLink, a Global Positioning System (GPS) which enables vehicle dispatching, implemented by one of the world’s largest taxi fleets, based in Singapore. It analyzes how additional new senses may emerge from a vagary of technology enactments. As a result, users become more sensitive towards adopting technology differentially as they continue to appropriate technology in their work context. This longitudinal research illustrates how local meanings ascribed by different user-groups to a technology may evolve and induce intended as well as unanticipated work transformation. Theoretical and practical implications on ongoing sense-making are discussed.     

MANAGERIAL AUTONOMY, CONTRACTUAL INCENTIVES AND PRODUCTIVITY IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: SOME EVIDENCE FROM CHINA'S TOWN AND VILLAGE ENTERPRISES

Abstract. In advanced industrial economies it is accepted that efficiency requires aligning managerial autonomy in decision‐making with managerial incentives. Should this hold for economies like that of rural China where (at least until very recently) managers might abuse autonomy and government owners may have objectives other than profit maximization? This paper tests for the effects of managerial autonomy on efficiency with and without alignment with incentives in a panel of Chinese town and village enterprises (TVEs). The results show that managerial autonomy has had a positive and significant effect on productivity only when aligned with incentives.