THE COEVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM MONARCHY TO DEMOCRACY*

This article establishes a unified political economy model to analyze the democratization process from monarchy to oligarchy and to democracy in the context of dynamic economic development. As the predominant source of wealth evolves from land to physical capital and finally to human capital, the relative economic and hence coercive power of land owners, capitalists, and workers shifts accordingly, inducing the transition of the political system where political power is expanded from landlords to capitalists and finally to workers. A smooth transition through political compromise facilitates efficient allocation of savings in physical capital followed by efficient investment in human capital.     

Increasing returns and unsynchronized wage adjustment in sunspot models of the business cycle

A challenge to models of equilibrium indeterminacy based on increasing returns is that required increasing returns for generating indeterminacy can be implausibly large and rise quickly with the relative risk aversion in labor. We show that unsynchronized wage adjustment via a relative wage effect can both lower the required degree of increasing returns for indeterminacy to a plausible level and make it invariant to the relative risk aversion in labor. Consequently, indeterminacy and sunspot-driven fluctuations can emerge for plausible increasing returns regardless of the relative risk aversion in labor. Our model generates reasonable dynamics in terms of matching the business cycle, and sunspot shocks become more important with labor market friction.     

基于资源配置的公司治理策略分析——以2006～2010年上市的公司为例

本文以2006～2010年间的IPO公司为样本,从优化资源配置的角度分析了国有企业和民营企业的公司治理策略。本文的研究发现,在优化资源配置方面,国有企业的公司治理应该与民营企业有所不同。国有企业的主要问题是所有权与控制权的完全分离带来的代理问题,因此公司治理的重点在于减轻代理问题。我们发现,薪酬激励、股权激励和股权制衡有助于提高国有企业经营效率,降低代理成本。民营企业的主要问题是大小股东之间的利益冲突,公司治理重点在于限制关联交易,遏制大股东利益侵占。本文最后提出政策性建议。     

我国个人所得税对城镇居民收入的调节效应研究

个人所得税对城镇居民收入的再分配效应可以分别从总量和结构的角度进行考察。对不同口径"税前收入"与"税后收入"的研究均发现,我国个人所得税有助于缩小城镇居民的基尼系数,但社会保障缴款显示了一定的逆向调节作用。通过结构分析发现,高收入居民的纳税比重、平均税率、税收累进程度均高于低收入组,但差别不大。同时,各收入组间收入结构、赡养人口的差别,影响了税收的再分配效应。     

Effectiveness of copula-extreme value theory in estimating value-at-risk: empirical evidence from Asian emerging markets

A traditional Monte Carlo simulation using linear correlations induces estimation bias in measuring portfolio value-at-risk (VaR), due to the well-documented existence of fat-tail, skewness, truncations, and non-linear relations in return distributions. In this paper, we consider the above issues in modeling VaR and evaluate the effectiveness of using copula-extreme-value-based semiparametric approaches. To assess portfolio risk in six Asian markets, we incorporate a combination of extreme value theory (EVT) and various copulas to build joint distributions of returns. A backtesting analysis using a Monte Carlo VaR simulation suggests that the Clayton copula-EVT evinces the best performance regardless of the shapes of the return distributions, and that in general the copulas with the EVT provide better estimations of VaRs than the copulas with conventionally employed empirical distributions. These findings still hold in conditional-coverage-based backtesting. These findings indicate the economic significance of incorporating the down-side shock in risk management.     

Advertising intensity,investor recognition,and implied cost of capital

The main purpose of this paper is to test Merton’s (J Finance 42(3):483–510, 1987) hypothesis that better investor recognition is correlated with lower expected returns. We measure investor recognition with the firms’ advertising intensity and offer consistent evidence that higher advertising intensity is associated with lower implied cost of capital, as derived from Value Line target prices and dividend forecasts. Investor recognition plays an important role in attracting investors, improving liquidity, and ultimately reducing the cost of capital. The findings shed light on the capital market implications of advertising expenditures and complement the extant research on investor recognition.     

金融危机跨国传染的实证检验——以美国金融危机为例

论文使用包括美国在内的28个经济体的股票指数的日收益率,进行相关系数及其费雪Z转换来检验美国金融危机的跨国传染效应;并运用单因素模型回归来验证纯传染效应的存在以及用经异方差调整后的相关系数对此纯传染效应进一步判断,分析结果表明:中国大陆和香港地区在本次危机中不仅存在金融危机传染效应,而且存在金融危机纯传染效应,而另外8个存在金融危机传染效应的经济体则不存在纯传染效应。     

中美主要金融市场相关结构及风险传导路径研究——基于Copula理论与方法

金融危机背景下的股市表现出更加复杂的动荡性,本文在传统GARCH模型的基础上引入了风险值对收益率的影响因素,运用GARCH-M模型来刻画股票收益率序列边缘分布,通过构建GARCH-M-t边缘分布过滤模型获取收益率残差序列,最后采用Copula函数对边缘分布拟合后的残差序列建模构建出Copula-GARCH-M-t相关结构模型。经过参数估计及多种Copula函数的拟合优度检验,最终成功刻画出中美金融市场五大证券交易中心股票收益率之间的相关结构模型。通过秩相关系数、尾部相关系数等相关性度量工具对中美两国金融市场的相关性进行分析,最后通过对不同股票市场之间的尾部相关性分析确定两国金融市场之间风险传导路径。     

人民币国际化的新思路

本文分析了当前人民币国际化的实践思路,认为其缺陷在于:该思路设想在经常项目下大规模地输出人民币,必然会打破经常项目下原有的平衡,反过来导致资本项目和外汇市场的不平衡,迫使政府在这两个市场上进行干预或管制,导致资本项目自由化和汇率自由浮动无法实现。由于这一缺陷,当前渐进式国际化的思路是难以达到预期目标的。有鉴于此,本文提出了一个人民币国际化的新思路:以中国巨额外汇储备为担保发行一种新型债券(文中称为"H债券"),从欧洲民间融资,资金可用于对欧洲各国进行援助和/或购入资源。将这种模式推广至境外其他国家和地区,再辅以其他措施,从而形成一个以境外的H债券为基础的人民币资本市场,最终实现人民币国际化。最后,本文比较了两种国际化路径的优劣,认为新路径是推进人民币国际化的最佳方案。     

杠杆率新规对商业银行行为的影响研究

在金融危机背景下巴塞尔委员会对资本监管出台了一系列新规,业界称之为巴塞尔协议Ⅲ,其中一个非常重要的建议是对商业银行实施无风险敏感性的杠杆率限制。本文将在一定假设的基础上,运用线性规划方法,分析在杠杆率和资本充足率双重约束下商业银行的行为。本文认为,巴塞尔委员会寄希望于杠杆率约束对资本充足率约束形成有效的补充,缓释顺周期性,但这种做法同时也降低了风险敏感度,造成监管资本套利。两种约束有可能相互补充,但同时也极有可能相互抵触。