Investing in the S&P 500 index: Can anything beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy?

Determining whether investment strategies exist that provide higher (risk‐adjusted) returns than buying and holding the S&P 500 stock market index is not only highly relevant for finance theory, but also for the asset management industry. This study conducts a comprehensive test using realistic investment strategies based on monthly seasonalities, technical indicators, and fundamental factors (over 4,100 strategies in total). To assess statistical significance, we use Hansen's data‐snooping‐resistant SPA test. The results show that only investment strategies trying to exploit underreaction and overreaction effects with technical indicators dominate the buy‐and‐hold strategy in some simulation setups. These investment strategies are clearly superior to the strategies based on seasonalities and fundamental factors. Given that underreaction and overreaction effects are mainly justified with cognitive biases, our results support the economic relevance of behavioral finance insights.     

Creativity methods in technological forecasting

“Technological Forecasting and Applications” was the title given to the Second European Technological Forecasting Association conference held in Paris in May. It was sponsored by ADETEM, The Association for the Development of Marketing Techniques, and was therefore somewhat inclined to that aspect of management studies. However, a number of papers reflected the increasing acceptance of the notion of technological forecasting both in France and in the UK, and illustrated various methods and applications. An example is the following contribution which introduces creativity techniques to the practice of technological forecasting.     

Publikationen deutschsprachiger Forscher in Top-Journals (4. Quartal 2010)

Aktuelle Publikationen

Publikationen deutschsprachiger Forscher in Top-Journals (4. Quartal 2010)     

Bridging knowledge in ambidextrous HRM systems: empirical evidence from hidden champions

Managing the tension between efficiency and flexibility is one of the core challenges that organizations must tackle in order to survive in the global competitive environment. Ambidexterity has been identified in the literature as a key way of managing this tension. Despite the enormous popularity of the concept of ambidexterity, the questions of how HR practices influence exploration and exploitation and support organizational ambidexterity remain underexplored. Drawing on our empirical case studies of three mid-sized ‘hidden champions’ in different high-tech manufacturing industries, we show how an ambidextrous human resource management (HRM) system works. We demonstrate that ambidextrous HRM systems can be regarded as a special type of high-performance work system (HPWS) that facilitates the continuous integration of exploration and exploitation in the pursuit of flexibility and efficiency. In particular, we elucidate how firms apply integrative employment practices and integrative work practices to facilitate collaboration and to create and strengthen a common frame of reference that fosters knowledge integration. Finally, setting up an ambidextrous HRM system supports the complementary interplay between a common frame of reference and a firm's ability to integrate knowledge in order to manage the conflicting demands of exploration and exploitation.     

Who drives climate-relevant policies in the rising powers?

The future of human life on our planet is influenced increasingly by what goes on in the rising powers. This paper provides a political economy analysis of the climate-relevant policies of China, India, Brazil and South Africa. It shows that alliances play a key role in driving such policies. However, most actors who support such policies have priorities other than climate change mitigation. Their support for such policies comes from concerns with securing energy, building competitive green industries, creating jobs or providing a basis for future public revenue. This insight is not just of analytical but also of political importance. It means that climate-relevant policies can draw on support from a wide constituency – not just those with green convictions. Such analysis provides the stepping-stone for understanding the political feasibility of low-carbon transformations.