Volatility of stock price as predicted by patent data: An MGARCH perspective

This paper proposes to model stock price volatility and variations in innovation effort using a Multivariate GARCH structure designed to extract information for risk prediction. The salient feature is that the model order, alongside other parameters, is endogenously determined by the estimation procedures. Using stock prices of U.S. computer firms, it is found that the model can pick up the correlation between the two variables and aid in producing accurate Value-at-Risk estimates.     

An Empirical Examination of the Ex Ante International Interest Rate Transmission

Using U.S. Treasury bill and Eurodollar futures to proxy for domestic and external interest rates, respectively, this study examines ex ante interest rate transmission across markets for the period 1982-1991. The results indicate that these interest rates are cointegrated and that they Granger-cause each other, implying that both domestic and offshore interest rates move together and that both markets are integrated. Interest rate transmission is found to be more rapid in recent years, a result supporting the idea that the international financial markets are becoming more integrated.     

Surplus Seeking and Rent Seeking Through Back-Door Deals in Mainland China Price Control and Central Planning Fix Prices Below Market Clearance, Creating a Contrived Surplus

Abstract . When the selling price is set below the market-clearing level through government price control, the price gap represents a contrived surplus transferred from the producer to the buyer. But, due to incomplete assignment of property rights to this contrived surplus and/or high enforcement costs, contrived surplus is often a non exclusive income subject to competitive capture. Exchange of favors between buyers and sellers to gain preferential access to rationed goods has become a dominant method of surplus seeking (cf. rent seeking) in the People's Republic of China. But since only well-placed individuals in the distribution channels for such goods and officials who control access to positional goods have favors to exchange, these exchanges sabotage government efforts to achieve fairer access to scarce goods. And since favors involve illegally diverted resources, such back-door deals threaten the integrity of government. Furthermore, exchange of favors fosters particularistic values which hinder modern economic development.     

Client corruption culture and audit quality: the conditioning effect of the competitive position of the incumbent auditor

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Prior research suggests that corporate corruption culture captures an audit client’s general attitude towards opportunistic behavior. In this...     

Improving risk classification and ratemaking using mixture-of-experts models with random effects

In the underwriting and pricing of nonlife insurance products, it is essential for the insurer to utilize both policyholder information and claim history to ensure profitability and proper risk management. In this paper, we apply a flexible regression model with random effects, called the Mixed Logit-weighted Reduced Mixture-of-Experts, which leverages both policyholder information and their claim history, to categorize policyholders into groups with similar risk profiles, and to determine a premium that accurately captures the unobserved risks. Estimates of model parameters and the posterior distribution of random effects can be obtained by a stochastic variational algorithm, which is numerically efficient and scalable to large insurance portfolios. Our proposed framework is shown to outperform the classical benchmark models (Logistic and Lognormal GL(M)M) in terms of goodness-of-fit to data, while offering intuitive and interpretable characterization of policyholders' risk profiles to adequately reflect their claim history.     

Agricultural labour and the incidence of surplus labour: experience from China during reform

This paper contributes to the pool of studies of rural underemployment and revisits a number of estimates of surplus agricultural labour in China. The study is devoted to the conceptualization, identification and measurement of surplus at regional, provincial and national levels by a stochastic frontier functional specification. The analysis indicates that the existing size of agricultural surplus labour is still significantly large with the continued practice of the household registration system and China's WTO membership.     

Women's Magazines: Construction of Identities and Cultural Consumption in Hong Kong

Consumption is an integral part of contemporary capitalistic society. By means of a textual analysis of letters to the editor of a women's magazine in Hong Kong, as well as in-depth interviews with readers and editors, this paper examines how women's cultural consumption creates, constructs and circulates women's identities. Results reveal that the processes of identification can be constructed on three equivalent consumption levels. Firstly, women readers identify certain "imaginary communities" through reading the magazine, and by modeling the behaviors and styles of the communities they feel they are sustaining their relationship with them. Secondly, women identify with an idealized community-constructed beauty and seek to consume products which collectively suggests this idealized beauty for them. Thirdly, women regard the "communities" as providing shelter for rapport and comfort from the emotional and relational problems of real life. In sum, structured identification-consumption has shaped working class women into an identity, which conforms to society's dominant capitalist logic. Despite these findings, however, there are always a few women who attempt to seek alternative lifestyles.     

International Business Research: Coauthorship Patterns and Quality

The authors investigate published international business research in four international business journals over a 10‐year period, 1995–2004: (a) patterns of coauthorship across regions, and (b) the relation between coauthorship patterns and the quality of international business (IB) articles. A cross‐region coauthorship enhances the quality of an article, suggesting that international collaboration creates synergy in IB research. The authors do not see any positive correlation between alphabetical ordering of coauthor names in multiauthored articles and article quality—a result that is contrary to some evidence in other disciplines. Finally, international management articles appear to be more frequently cited than articles in other IB research areas.