The Default Risk of Swaps

We characterize the exchange of financial claims from risky swaps. These transfers are among three groups: shareholders, debtholders, and the swap counterparty. From this analysis we derive equilibrium swap rates and relate them to debt market spreads. We then show that equilibrium swaps in perfect markets transfer wealth from shareholders to debtholders. In a simplified case, we obtain closed-form solutions for the value of the default risk in the swap. For interest-rate swaps, we obtain numerical solutions for the equilibrium swap rate, including default risk. We compare these with equilibrium debt market default risk spreads.     

Asset Revaluations and Assessment of Borrowing Capacity

Prior research has found support for contracting, political cost and information asymmetry explanations for managements’ decision to revalue non-current assets. This study proposes that asset revaluations occur to signal available borrowing capacity via an increase in collateral values at the time of increases in secured debt and that the economic benefits associated with an asset revaluation will be greatest for firms when they are experiencing times of declining cash flows from operations. Results imply that firms that have undertaken an asset revaluation are more likely to be experiencing declining cash flows from operations than firms that have not revalued. This study also investigates whether the incidence of valuations coincides with increases in levels of secured borrowings due to lenders’ demands for current values of assets offered as collateral. The evidence indicates that firms are more likely to record an asset revaluation if they have increased their secured borrowings, and that most non-year-end revaluations emanate directly from contracting with lenders.     

Tax Law Improvement in Australia and the UK: The Need for a Strategy for Simplification

In both Australia and the UK, programmes are under way to simplify tax legislation by rewriting it. This paper demonstrates that tax simplification is a complicated concept and concludes that sustainable improvement is unlikely to be achieved if reform is limited only to linguistic changes. Tax law is complicated because there are powerful pressures that tend to increase the complexity of modern tax systems and these should also be considered in any simplification programme. In addition, tax simplification may be promoted by the greater use of purposive legislation — that is, legislation drafted in terms of general principles rather than much more comprehensive legislation designed to deal with every likely possibility. The paper examines the progress of the Australian Tax Law Improvement Project and argues that what is needed is a strategy for tax simplification that is incorporated into the process of generating tax policy itself. JEL classification: H20.     

Regulation, Risk and the Pricing of Australian Bank Shares, 1957–1976*

Recent contributions to the theory of regulation have suggested the possibility of discriminatory regulation affecting risk and profits of firms subject to public intervention. This paper examines risk and wealth effects associated with Australian banking regulation. Support is found for the Peltzman and Edwards and Heggestad hypothesis that regulation reduces risk and for Johnson's hypothesis that statutory reserve deposit requirement policy involves an implicit tax on bank shareholders.     

MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING? DEMOGRAPHIC BULGES,THE PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE,AND CPP REFORM

Analysts predict that future demographically driven financial imbalances will undermine the sustainability of pay-as-you-go social insurance arrangements like the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). Proposed reforms for the CPP focus on raising the contribution rate to pre fund future benefits. In an overlapping generations model, the authors examine how demographic factors alone could explain the observed changes in productivity/wage growth over the last 30 years. The authors also examine how these factors impact on a pay-as-you-go financed CPP. If Canada is a small open economy, then real wages and real interest rates are not affected by domestic demographic conditions. In this setting, increasing payroll taxes transfers the burden of finance away from the lower income baby bust generation to the higher income baby boom generation. In contrast, if Canada can be characterized as a closed economy, then real wages and real interest rates are sensitive to domestic demographic conditions. In this setting, increasing payroll taxes now to keep taxes lower in future is intergenerationally regressive because the CPP burden is reduced for the well off baby bust generation and passed onto the lower income baby boomers. ( JEL H55, J18, J10)