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排序方式: 共有118条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Niloufar Abourashchi Iain Clacher David Hillier Malcolm Kemp Qi Zhang 《European Journal of Finance》2016,22(13):1292-1319
We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes. 相似文献
13.
It is argued that the ongoing CAP/GATT reforms provide a basis for the introduction of environmental cross-compliance (ECC). ECC enables policymakers to restrict output-related direct support payments to those farmers who comply with specified environmental guidelines aimed at reducing the external damage effects of agricultural production. This paper is an exploratory investigation of ECC and presents the results of a farm-level linear programming analysis of 15 North-West England arable farms. The environmental guidelines, which relate to permanent as opposed to rotational set-aside and to levels of fertiliser use, are widely applicable to the extent that ECC can be implemented as a voluntary policy system. They are clearly effective in achieving policy goals since all but one of the farmers investigated would comply with the full range of restrictions considered. Within this range, gross margins are reduced by up to 10 per cent while area and output of seed crops are reduced by around 22 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. Row crops area and output are more robust, each falling by just under 4 per cent. 相似文献
14.
Iain M. Fraser 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》1995,46(1):20-32
This paper provides a game theoretic analysis of Management Agreements under asymmetric information. A simple two-period game is employed to represent the Coasian bargaining process which takes place between the farmer and English Nature over the introduction of a Management Agreement. The analysis shows that if the farmer possesses an information advantage and wishes to exploit it to gain an economic rent from the bargaining process, inefficient outcomes are possible. The implications of the analysis for the continued reliance upon voluntarism and Management Agreements for the protection of Sites of Special Scientific Interest are considered. 相似文献
15.
Iain Ramsay 《Journal of Consumer Policy》2012,35(4):421-441
Many EU countries introduced debt adjustment systems as a response to the growth of over-indebtedness since the 1980s. These systems, originally introduced in many countries as crisis measures, have now become normalized, metamorphosing through a continuing learning process into a combination of debt adjustment and insolvency relief through a discharge of debt, sometimes after only 1?year, but often after a debt repayment plan over a period of 3–7?years. Since the early 2000s, new Member States of the EU have also introduced insolvency systems, often based on models from the old states. This paper examines experience in European consumer insolvency systems, based on the modest empirical studies of existing systems, primarily England, France and Germany. It discusses the reasons for the use of consumer insolvency, and the limited data on the characteristics of users, charts distinct national approaches and outlines common themes and objectives for consumer insolvency in the context of EU measures to create an integrated credit market in a “competitive social market. To economy”. It concludes by underlining the absence of systematic social science knowledge on existing systems and outlines areas for further research. 相似文献
16.
In the competitive aviation market as a result of the emergence of low cost carriers, charter airlines have had to reconsider their approach to service provision. Specifically, the reduction in service and comfort levels offered by the low cost airlines provides charter carriers with an opportunity to differentiate their product based on the quality of the offering. To consider this strategic option we employ an on-line choice experiment to examine consumer choices with respect to the bundle of services on offer when deciding to purchase a flight. With these data we use the Bayesian methods to estimate a mixed logit specification. Our results reveal that in principle passengers are willing to pay a relatively large amount for enhanced service quality. 相似文献
17.
Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used for testing for multiple break points in univariate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over specifications including: stationary; stationary around trend and unit root models, each containing different types and number of breaks and different lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in all of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our findings regarding the existence of unit roots, having allowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work. 相似文献
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Ben Lowe Diogo M. de Souza-Monteiro Iain Fraser 《Journal of Marketing Management》2013,29(11-12):1337-1366
AbstractThe increase in food-related diseases in society has led to a variety of public policy and private sector initiatives, such as the use of nutritional labels. Although nutritional labels have been shown to be broadly effective in terms of informing food choice, their influence is moderated by a variety of factors, such as how information is conveyed and processed by consumers. Recent advances in technology might overcome these limitations. Using a choice experiment, this paper examines consumer preferences for alternative technological devices that may aid consumer processing of nutritional information on food packaging. The results show which attributes of the technology consumers prefer, and identifies three distinct segments of consumers (‘information hungry innovators’, ‘active label readers’, and ‘onlookers’), and differences between them in relation to their preferences, demographics, and psychographic characteristics. The identification of segments is a novel aspect of this research, and highlights the importance of finding more customised solutions to the communication of nutritional information – an issue to which technology can contribute. 相似文献
20.
Abstract. China's 'equilibrium' real effective exchange rate is explored using an adaptation of the Devarajan-Lewis-Robinson three-good general equilibrium model under a variety of assumptions about the balance of trade. The absence of secondary indices of import and export prices necessitates their construction from trade data. Some undervaluation is suggested in the lead-up to and during the financial crisis, due in part to an extraordinary accumulation of foreign reserves following exchange rate integration in 1994. If, instead, China had run a more typical trade balance prior to the crisis its real effective exchange rate would have been higher by about a tenth. 相似文献