Neue Schuldenregeln: Sicherheitsabstand für eine stetige Finanzpolitik

Mit der jüngsten F?deralismusreform soll unter anderem die Verbindlichkeit der Verschuldungsgrenzen erh?ht werden. Hierdurch steigen die Anforderungen an die Haushalts- und Finanzplanung, da unerwartete Entwicklungen zukünftig verst?rkt im Rahmen der regul?ren Grenzen abgefedert werden müssen. Begrenzte Abweichungen im Vollzug k?nnen zwar über das Kontrollkonto aufgefangen werden. Wie kann aber vermieden werden, dass überraschende Entwicklungen erratische Politikanpassungen im Rahmen der Haushaltsplanungen erforderlich machen und so eine stetige Finanzpolitik erschwert und die Wirkung der automatischen Stabilisatoren eingeschr?nkt wird?     

Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area

This paper analyses an otherwise standard macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes - apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy - a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the stance of unconventional monetary policy. I find that the CISS contributes significantly to the dynamics of the macroeconomy and exerts a strong influence on monetary policy when looking at both policy rates and the ECB balance sheet. The significance of the CISS appears robust to the inclusion of a broad set of real and financial control variables. Based on tests of direct versus indirect (Granger-)causality patterns proposed in Hsiao (1982), I also find that unlike unconventional policy as measured by ECB balance sheet growth, the policy rate does not seem to react directly to variations in financial stress but rather indirectly through the impact of financial stress on macroeconomic conditions. These different patterns of reaction are broadly consistent with the ECB’s “separation principle”. The estimated effects of the ECB’s standard and non-standard policy measures on inflation and economic growth are moderate, although an easier stance in both policy tools helps calm down financial stress.     

Why did the chicken cross the road,and what’s funny about it? The role of transportation cartoons in social experiences

This article samples a number of transport related situations that cartoonists sketch in the media, thereby taking a stand and offering solutions regarding transportation issues. We discuss the relationship that is created by the cartoonists and ultimately involves both the general public and transportation professionals. Our analysis offers insight into popular perceptions of transportation experiences through social commentary, transmitted as graphic humor, regarding common situations, which are observed in transport systems. A theory and qualitative research based approach is used to address the complex connections between our daily responses and transportation contexts. An analysis of topical components of transportation systems and experiences as perceived by users and policymakers utilize the representations by cartoonists. By examining how the issues interrelate, we built a storyline that presents observations and critiques.     

Arbitrage and Growth Rate for Riskless Investments in a Stationary Economy

A sequential investment is a vector of payments over time, ( a ₀, a ₁, ... , a_n ), where a payment is made to or by the investor according as a_i is positive or negative. Given a collection of such investments it may be possible to assemble a portfolio from which an investor can get "something for nothing," meaning that without investing any money of his own he can receive a positive return after some finite number of time periods. Cantor and Lipmann (1995) have given a simple necessary and sufficient condition for a set of investments to have this property. We present a short proof of this result. If arbitrage is not possible, our result leads to a simple derivation of the expression for the long–run growth rate of the set of investments in terms of its "internal rate of return."     

Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises,capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets

Sudden stops are the simultaneous occurrence of a currency/balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows. We investigate whether sudden-stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse (a “Mexican wave”). Using a panel data set over 1975–1997 and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we distinguish between the output effects of currency crises, capital inflow reversals, and sudden-stop crises. Sudden-stop crises have a large negative, but short-lived, impact on output growth over and above that found with currency crises. A currency crisis typically reduces output by about 2–3%, while a sudden stop reduces output by an additional 6–8% in the year of the crisis. The cumulative output loss of a sudden stop is even larger, around 13–15% over a 3-year period. Our model estimates correspond closely to the output dynamics of the ‘Mexican wave’ (such as seen in Mexico in 1995, Turkey in 1994 and elsewhere), and out-of-sample predictions of the model explain well the sudden (and seemingly unexpected) collapse in output associated with the 1997–1998 Asian Crisis.     

Chinese RMB exchange rate and local currency price stability in ASEAN trade

The article uses trade data between China and ASEAN countries to test hypotheses related to pricing to market (PTM) and consequent local currency price stability (LCPS). The degree of price discrimination associated with real RMB exchange rate changes between China and ASEAN + 2 shows evidence of local currency price stability in some industries in which exporters may be less competitive. China's trade policy may have also played a role in the local currency price stability. The article finds no evidence that RMB appreciation creates a larger impact on price adjustment than RMB depreciation.     

Fire‐sale FDI? The Impact of Financial Crises on Foreign Direct Investment

We analyze the evolution of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing and emerging countries around financial crises. We empirically examine the Fire‐Sale FDI hypothesis and describe the pattern of FDI inflows surrounding financial crises. We also add a more granular detail about the types of financial crises and their potentially differential effects on FDI. We distinguish between mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and greenfield investment, as well as between horizontal (tariff jumping) and vertical (integrating production stages) FDI. We find that financial crises have a strong negative effect on inward FDI in our sample. Crises are also shown to reduce the value of horizontal and vertical FDI. We do not find empirical evidence of fire‐sale FDI; on the contrary, financial crises are shown to affect FDI flows and M&A activity negatively.     

Cooperation and competition standards-setting activities in the digitization era: The case of wireless information devices

Standards-setting activities were traditionally characterized by either pure competition or cooperation activities. Recent studies, however, have proposed that a shift in standards-setting activities is taking place in which a hybrid mode is observed, and that digital convergence is one driving force behind this shift. Little is known about the nature of this hybrid mode and the empirical evidence that has supported such propositions is still weak. To address this gap, this paper develops a framework in which five attributes are examined to determine the level of cooperative and competitive standards-setting activities, during the development and the sponsoring stages, in the Wireless Information Devices Operating System (WID-OS) battle. The empirical evidence drawn from this standardization battle suggests that digital convergence drives firms to pursue cooperative and competitive standards-setting activities throughout the battle. We conclude by exploring future research and practical implications.     

Cyclical fluctuations in the Israeli housing market

While public construction in Israel is of a magnitude sufficient to exert effective housing market countercyclical influence, it has often had the opposite effect. This phenomenon is viewed with particular concern, given that economywide recessions of past decades have been precipitated by significant downturns in the construction industry. This paper describes specification and estimation of a simultaneous-equation structural model of the Israeli housing market. Results of the analysis indicate the importance of disaggregation by public and private sectors as well as the significance of mortgage availability and price, substitution and income effects, disruptions caused by war and the like in an explanation of cyclical phenomenon.     

Why Isn't Convergence Instantaneous? Young Workers, Old Workers, and Gradual Adjustment

The human capital of young and old workers are imperfect substitutes both in production and in providing on-the-job training. This helps explain why capital does not flow from rich to poor countries, causing instantaneous convergence of per capita output. If each generation chooses its human capital optimally, given that of the preceding and succeeding generations, human capital follows a unique rational-expectations path. For moderate substitutability, human capital within each sector oscillates relative to that in other sectors, but aggregate human capital converges to the steady state monotonically.