The growth of family farms in Hungary

The article investigates the validity of Gibrat's Law for Hungarian family farms using FADN data collected between 2001 and 2007. Gibrat's Law states that the growth rate of firms will be independent of their initial size. Regression results allow us to reject Gibrat's Law for all quantiles. Evidence suggests that smaller farms tend to grow faster than larger ones. Results do not support the hypothesis of “disappearing middle” in Hungarian agriculture. We study a number of socio‐economic factors that can help to explain farm growth. We find that total subsidies received by a farm and the farm operator's age are the most significant factors correlated with farm growth.     

The analysis of bullwhip effect in a HMMS-type supply chain

The aim of the paper is to investigate the well-known bullwhip effect of supply chains. Control theoretic analysis of bullwhip effect is extensively analyzed in the literature with the Laplace transform. This paper tries to examine the effect for an extended Holt-Modigliani-Muth-Simon model. A two-stage supply chain (supplier-manufacturer) is studied with quadratic costs functional. It is assumed that both firms minimize the relevant costs. The order of the manufacturer is delayed with a known constant. Two cases are examined: supplier and manufacturer minimize the relevant costs decentralized, and a centralized decision rule. The question is answered, how to decrease the bullwhip effect.     

Systematic stress tests with entropic plausibility constraints

Stress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because dangerous scenarios are not considered or because the scenarios considered are too implausible. To overcome these two pitfalls we propose a systematic search for the worst case within a relative entropy ball of sufficiently plausible scenarios. For this purpose we use mixed scenarios, which are risk factor distributions rather than realisations. A Maximum Loss theorem explicitly gives the worst case distribution. The method is illustrated in a number of example applications: linear and quadratic portfolios, stressed default probabilities, stressed correlations, macroeconomic stress tests.     

Does EU Enlargement Increase Agro‐Food Export Duration?

This paper examines the impact of EU enlargement on agro‐food export performance across 12 new EU member states and five newly independent states in the EU markets covering the period 1999 to 2007. The performance is examined by duration of export and hazard model. We find larger duration for the agro‐food exports from the new EU member states. The results confirm gains from the eastward EU enlargement and governance on export increases and longer duration for exporting higher value‐added specialized consumer‐ready food and more competitive niche agro‐food products.     

Labour Market Adjustment and Intra‐Industry Trade: The Effects of Association on the Hungarian Food Industry

The structure of Hungary’s food trade expansion over the period 1995–2003 and its implications for labour market adjustment are examined. The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, we test the sensitivity of results to the choice of measurement and their implications for the results. Second, we introduce more industry‐specific control variables. Third, we distinguish the short‐ and long‐run adjustment effects. Our results provide some support for the smooth‐adjustment hypothesis of intra‐industry trade. Estimations confirm that industry‐specific variables may have a significant effect on adjustment costs.     

VALUE JUDGEMENTS IMPLIED BY THE USE OF VARIOUS MEASURES OF INCOME INEQUALITY*

If a welfare economist wants to express income inequality in a sensible way by a single parameter, he has to make rather strong assumptions regarding the social preferences of his fellow citizens. Formulas are presented with whose aid one is able to test whether or not these assumptions hold. The standard measures used nowadays contradict prevailing preferences. If no common single measure can be found which fits the social preferences of almost all individuals concerned tolerably well, additional parameters measuring poverty and riches separately are necessary.