THE FUNDING OF TRADITIONAL ORGANISED CRIME IN RUSSIA

The changed economic and political situation in Russia since the 1990s brought about a qualitative transformation of Russian organised crime, particularly in organisational and behavioural patterns. In particular, a pronounced shift from violent crime towards economic crime is being observed. Criminals try to establish and exercise control over legitimate businesses via corrupt politicians, local authorities and/or law enforcement officials. A tendency towards the consolidation of criminal groups within given territories is also discernible, whilst there are signs of increased interregional integration among different criminal organisations.     

ON FINITE DIMENSIONAL REALIZATIONS OF TWO-COUNTRY INTEREST RATE MODELS

This paper explores how consistent two-dimensional families of forward rate curves can be constructed on an international market. Applying the approach in Björk and Christenssen (1999) and Björk and Svensson (2001) , we study when a system of inherently infinite dimensional domestic and foreign forward rate processes in a two-country economy with spot (forward) exchange rate possesses finite dimensional realizations. In the system with the forward exchange rate, the forward interest rate equations are supplemented by a third infinite dimensional stochastic differential equation representing the forward exchange rate dynamics. We construct and fit consistent families to observed Euro and USD yields as well as the forward (spot) EUR/USD exchange rate.     

The role of data limitations,seasonality and frequency in asset pricing models

We demonstrate that the estimates of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) parameters significantly differ across samples, which are based on different days of the week (representing different seasons). Our evidence suggests that the “noise” in the data is not an issue. We also show that parameter differences for mixed samples, which contain information on different seasons, are too small to distort statistical analysis. This is so because parameter estimates converge to some values (but not necessarily to the true values) for high frequencies or as the sample size becomes large. Our evidence suggests a possibility that the CAPM may hold empirically if seasonality in the parameters of the population model are taken into consideration.     

Effects of subsidies in Russian dairy farming

This study develops a microeconometric model of specialized dairy farms in the Moscow region using panel data over the period 1995–2001. The model is used to analyze the role of subsidies on profit as well as input and output allocation. Theoretical conditions for short‐term profit maximization are not rejected by the data. Differences between farms allow for a fixed‐effect specification. The dairy producers in the region demonstrate a low responsiveness to market signals, but technology change becomes important. Labor, land, and livestock had low shadow prices. Although subsidies have a distorting effect on the input–output mix, this study shows they relieve the credit constraints on dairy farms and have an important positive influence on farm profit.     

Challenges for a broadband service strategy in rural areas: A Romanian case study

Broadband network deployment plays an important part in the strategic policies in Europe to promote growth and innovation in all sectors of the economy in addition to social and territorial cohesion. In compliance with existing community policies, Romanian strategies in this field seek to provide the necessary support for broadband connectivity in rural areas. The goal of this study is to define a rural end-user profile to plan the most appropriate broadband service strategy from both a technical and a marketing perspective. Our empirical research involves an exploratory survey conducted in rural areas in northwestern Romania (n=1040 respondents). The findings reveal low levels of customer satisfaction and users more interested in data transfer than voice or video applications. Given this rural user profile, simulations of network traffic were conducted. The simulation results suggest that WLANs are the most suitable solution for the “last mile” broadband segment.     

Dismantling institutional complexity behind international competitiveness of emerging market firms

The paper examines the perceived role of emerging market institutions in the creation of firm‐specific advantages of local small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) supporting international expansion and competitiveness. Our objective is to deepen conceptual understanding of the complex link between emerging market institutional factors and an ability of emerging market SMEs to compete internationally. Our empirical evidence from Russian software SMEs operating in global niche markets reveals that managers perceive institutional influence on their firms' ability to compete internationally in a number of direct and indirect means. We find that, in addition to the well acknowledged negative impact of institutions, there are supportive and triggering forces that incentivize SMEs' international expansion and development of competitive advantages. We contribute to the literature by elaborating about the complexity of institutional influence on international competitiveness of emerging market SMEs. This research offers insights for managers about the prospects of international expansion of SMEs from emerging markets.     

Secular Outlook for Global Growth: 2015–34

Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team employs a multi-time-horizon asset allocation approach that analyzes trends among three temporal segments: tactical (short term), business cycle (medium term), and secular (long term). This report focuses exclusively on secular trends that may influence the long-term outlook for various asset classes. Key takeaways are the following:??Slower growth is expected to result in a historically lower interest-rate climate and less of a tailwind to equities. ??With the economy providing the backdrop for asset markets, our secular GDP growth forecasts are the foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions. ??Our forward-looking, global approach emphasizes the key components of GDP growth—population and productivity—and calculates the critical drivers that have been most predictive. ??Over the next 20 years, global growth is expected to be somewhat slower, due primarily to deteriorating demographics in most countries, particularly aging populations in advanced economies. ??Emerging Asia is expected to grow more slowly, due in part to less catch-up potential after a period of rapid growth, though developing economies in general should continue to experience faster relative growth. ??Slower world growth will lead to lower-than-historical-average interest rates and provide less of a boost to equity returns, but global opportunities for investment are still expected to expand.     

One‐Stop Shopping Behavior,Buyer Power and Upstream Merger Incentives

We analyze how consumer preferences for one‐stop shopping affect the (Nash) bargaining relationships between a retailer and its suppliers. One‐stop shopping preferences create ‘demand complementarities’ among otherwise independent products which lead to two opposing effects on upstream merger incentives: first a standard double mark‐up problem and second a bargaining effect. The former creates merger incentives while the later induces suppliers to bargain separately. When buyer power becomes large enough, then suppliers stay separated which raises final good prices. We also show that our result can be obtained when wholesale prices are determined in a non‐cooperative game and under two‐part tariffs.     

“As Much Calcium as a Glass of Milk!” Understanding American Consumers’ Preferences for Fortified Foods

This study examines predictors of American consumers’ preferences for fortified foods, focusing on sociodemographic as well as psychological correlates. Analysis of a probability-based survey (N = 6,728) revealed that females and the more educated tended to have greater preferences for fortified foods. Whites held the least favorable views on fortified foods when compared to Blacks and Hispanics. In terms of psychological predictors, people who were more health-conscious were more likely to prefer fortified foods. Perceived usefulness of nutrition labels and confusion about healthy food choices were both associated with stronger preferences for fortified foods. Both relationships appeared to be moderated by health consciousness. Communication and policy implications of these findings are discussed.