Forecasting contemporal aggregates of multiple time series

The paper considers forecasting a contemporal linear aggregate y_t of a vector time series Z^'_t =(Z_1t,...,Z_kt). We first disciss the case where Z_t follows a stationary multiple moving average process and propose a measure of the efficiency of aggregation. A necessary and sufficient condition is given for the case of no gain by employing the component series. Extension of the results to stationary multiple autoregressive process and some non-stationarity processes is discussed, and an illustrative example is given.     

Adverse event-related costs for systemic metastatic breast cancer treatment among female Medicaid beneficiaries

Objective: This retrospective study compared the real-world incidence and costs of systemic treatment-related adverse events (AEs) in patients with metastatic breast cancer in a Medicaid population.

Methods: Insurance claims data for adult women who received biologic or chemotherapy (± hormonal therapy) for metastatic breast cancer between 2006–2013 were extracted from the Truven Health MarketScan^® Multi-State Medicaid database. Incidence of AEs (per 100 person years) and average monthly AE-related healthcare costs (per-patient-per-month) during each line of therapy (first or later lines) were estimated. The association between AEs and total all-cause healthcare costs was estimated using multivariable regression.

Results: A total of 729 metastatic breast cancer patients were analyzed. Hematological (202.3 per 100 person years) and constitutional AEs (289.6 per 100 person years) were the most common class of AEs reported. Unadjusted per-patient-per-month AE-related expenditure by class were highest for hematological AEs ($1524), followed by gastrointestinal ($839) and constitutional AEs ($795), with anemia ($942), nausea/vomiting ($699), and leukopenia/neutropenia ($550) having incurred the highest total AE-related costs. Adjusted total all-cause monthly costs increased with the number of AEs ($19,701 for >7 AEs, $16,264 for 4???6 AEs, and $13,731 for 1???3 AEs) compared to no AEs ($5908) (all p?Conclusions: Among metastatic breast cancer patients treated with systemic therapy in a Medicaid population, AEs were associated with significant increases in costs, which increased with the number of AEs experienced. Therapies associated with a lower incidence of AEs may reduce cost burden and improve patient outcomes.     

Conversion of ordinal attitudinal scales: An inferential Bayesian approach

The need for scale conversion may arise whenever an attitude of individuals is measured by independent entrepreneurs each using an ordinal scale of its own with possibly different numbers of (arbitrary) ordinal categories. Such situations are quite common in the marketing realm. The conversion of a score of an individual measured on one scale into an estimated score of a similar scale with a different range is the concern of this paper. An inferential Bayesian approach is adopted to analyze the situation where we believe the scale with fewer categories can be obtained by collapsing the finer scale. This leads to inferences concerning rules for the conversion of scales. Further, we propose a method for testing the validity of such a model. The use of the proposed methodology is exemplified on real data from surveys concerning performance evaluation and satisfaction.     

POLITICAL ECONOMY AND PEEL'S REPEAL OF THE CORN LAWS

The repeal of the Corn Laws in Britain in 1846 has been much debated as to whether interest groups or ideology contributed most to this policy reform. This paper examines a conventional view that Sir Robert Peel, in proposing repeal, converted from protection to free trade under the influence of the ideas of political economy. It is shown that economic ideas had a crucial influence on Peel, but that he remained skeptical of political economy as a doctrine.     

Book reviews

Technological Risk H. W. Lewis ,Yew York and London, W. W. Norton ,and Company, 1991, xiii+353pp., £15.95.

Towards Global Localisation: the computing and telecommunications industries in Britain and France Philip Cooke, Frank Moulaert, Erik Swyngedouw, Olivier Weinstein & Peter Wells with Martine Lamattre & Patrice Grevet London, UCL Press, 1992, 227pp., £30.00 hardback.

A Strategy of Change: concepts and controversies in the management of change David C. Wilson London, Routledge, 1992, 147pp., ISBN 0-4 15-053269, £10.00 pbk.     

A system for evaluating social welfare programs and allocating contributed resources based on citizen input

This paper describes the development and implementation of a social welfare program evaluation system developed by a Community Council to aid the resource allocation decision process of a local United Way. The system assigns a “utility” measure to each program based on how the program satisfies the long-term social welfare goals of the community adjusted for the effect of short range, time dependent criteria affecting the region. Data for the processes described was obtained by quantifying the subjective feelings of the individual members of the Community Council. The results have been accepted by the United Way Organization and are currently being used to assist in the planning and resource allocation functions of the fund.