An Analysis of the Ex Ante Probabilities of Mortgage Prepayment and Default

Observed mortgage prepayment and default rates have been far different than the ruthless option exercise rates predicted by contingent claims models of mortgage pricing. The discrepancies have been attributed to both the competing-risk nature of prepayment and default and to transactions costs. This paper tries a different means of reconciliation. We introduce a third stochastic process, household income, into the usual pricing model that includes only the spot interest rate and the house price. The presence of income allows considering consumption-theoretic determinants of termination. The role of mortgage underwriting rules in restricting optimal prepayment is also explicitly modeled. Numerical ex ante prepayment and default rates based on the theoretical model come much closer to historical experience.     

Asset specificity,firm heterogeneity and capital structure

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the importance of specialized assets and other unique characteristics of a firm in explaining the variance in capital structure across firms. The results show that firm-specific effects contribute most to the variance in leverage, suggesting a strong link between strategy and capital structure.     

Wealth effects and the current account with endogenous terms of trade

Portfolio balance models of exchange rate dynamics generally neglect diversification in internationally traded goods. They thereby avoid a difficulty in demonstrating that models allowing such diversification are not globally unstable, as highlighted by Dornbusch and Fischer (1980). This note shows that simple perfect foresight versions of traditional endogenous terms of trade models are unambiguously characterized by saddlepoint stability.     

Sensory characteristics of fufu prepared with cassava roots (Manihot esculenta Crantz) stored in polyethylene sacks

This study was carried out to assess the effect of storage of cassava roots in polyethylene sacks for periods of 2, 4, 6 and 8 weeks on the sensory characteristics of cassava fufu, a popular Ghanaian dish. Freshly harvested cassava roots were dipped in tap water and packed into polyethylene sacks in 2‐kg batches and stored at room temperature (25°C ± 1°C). Samples of fresh cassava fufu were evaluated and then at two weekly intervals for a period of 8 weeks. Attributes evaluated were colour, smell, elasticity, smoothness and taste. A structured six‐point ranking scale ranging from 6 (excellent) to 1 (very poor) was used for the evaluation. The data were analysed using analysis of variance, and the least significance difference test at P < 0.05 was used to determine differences between means. The results showed that storage of cassava roots for up to 8 weeks did not significantly affect the colour, smell, elasticity and taste of cassava fufu. However, smoothness of fufu prepared with cassava stored for 6 and 8 weeks was significantly different from the samples of the fresh cassava, and those stored for 2 and 4 weeks. It was concluded that cassava roots stored for periods up to 8 weeks in polyethylene sacks produced fufu of similar characteristics as fresh cassava fufu. This method is therefore recommended for use by homemakers, food service operators, cassava retailers and processors to save them time, energy and money used for the frequent trips for purchases. The method would also reduce post‐harvest losses to a large extent.     

Value Congruence Awareness: Part 1. DNA Testing Sheds Light on Functionalism

This exploratory study examines awareness of the other party's instrumental, terminal, and work values by members of supervisor and employee dyads. Subjective estimates of value congruence, provided by either member of the dyad, correlated with actual value congruence scores determine conscious awareness levels in all cases. Results demonstrate supervisory awareness of employee terminal values, but not work values or instrumental values, even though these latter value types probably possess the greatest relevance to achieving organizational goals. Further, employees possess awareness of supervisor work values but not instrumental or terminal values. These findings challenge traditional assumptions underlying the functionalism position on organizational culture that appears in the literature most frequently read by practicing managers.     

A cost-utility analysis of prolonged-release tacrolimus relative to immediate-release tacrolimus and ciclosporin in liver transplant recipients in the UK

Background: Calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) represent the cornerstone of immunosuppressive therapy after liver transplantation. A recent network meta-analysis (NMA) evaluated the relative efficacy of CNIs ciclosporin, prolonged-release (PR) tacrolimus, and immediate-release (IR) tacrolimus in adult liver transplant recipients based on randomized and large observational trials published since 2000. Based on the NMA findings, the present study evaluated the cost-utility of PR tacrolimus relative to ciclosporin or IR tacrolimus in liver transplant recipients in the UK.

Methods: A Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost-utility of immunosuppressive regimens in liver transplant recipients, capturing costs associated with immunosuppression, retransplantation, acute rejection (AR), and cytomegalovirus infection. Mortality, graft loss, and AR odds ratios were derived from the NMA. Costs were taken from the British National Formulary and the NHS National Tariff and expressed in 2016 pounds sterling. Future costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% annually.

Results: Over 25 years, PR tacrolimus resulted in increased life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) relative to IR tacrolimus and ciclosporin. Relative to ciclosporin, QALE increased by 1.17 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with PR tacrolimus while costs increased by GBP £4645, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3962 per QALY gained. Relative to IR tacrolimus, QALE increased by 0.78 QALYs and costs by £1474, resulting in an ICER of £1889 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis showed the analysis to be most sensitive to dosing assumptions.

Conclusions: Based on a UK-specific analysis of the projected cost-utility of PR tacrolimus relative to IR tacrolimus and ciclosporin, PR tacrolimus was cost-effective, improving life expectancy and QALE relative to both IR tacrolimus and ciclosporin, yielding ICERs below £20 000 per QALY gained. The main limitations of the study were data source heterogeneity and omitting the economic and clinical effects of treating aspects of recurrent liver disease.     

Elderly Female-Headed Households and the Decision to Trade Down

Results from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics show that elderly women appear to be much more circumspect than men about making housing changes. Some of this apparent difference occurs because elderly women have low levels of financial assets. Elderly women also appear to be much more likely than men, when they do move, to dissave out of home equity. Yet what appears on the surface to be a gender difference in the decision to dissave in later life turns out upon closer examination to occur because of divorce and the event of widowhood.     

Effects of domestic multiculturalism on job attitudes in Nigeria: a research note

This study investigates possible cultural differences in job attitudes among the three main sub-cultural groups dominating the entire population of the Nigerian work-force: Hausa (n=80), Ibo (n=119) and Yoruba (n= 151). Several hypotheses were derived from previous knowledge of the three cultures and differences were explored in the relationships between perceptions and attitudes concerning specific aspects of the job. Consistent cross-cultural differences that can be related to characteristics of the cultures studied were revealed with regard to only three motivational factors, namely, interpersonal relations, nature of work and supervision. The overall results seem to indicate that employees' cultural background has little impact on their perceptions of job motivation. However, a number of different personal variables were found to affect responses. Practical and research implications of the findings are discussed as well as directions for future research.