浙江加快农业发展方式转变的战略思考

浙江现代农业发展取得了巨大成就,也面临着许多新的矛盾和问题,加快推进农业发展方式转变的战略路径是要构建新型农业生产经营管理体系、产业功能区体系、产业结构体系、科技支撑体系、要素市场体系、社会化服务体系、安全生产体系、支持保护体系。     

Introducing Environmental Variables in Nonparametric Frontier Models: a Probabilistic Approach

This paper proposes a general formulation of a nonparametric frontier model introducing external environmental factors that might influence the production process but are neither inputs nor outputs under the control of the producer. A representation is proposed in terms of a probabilistic model which defines the data generating process. Our approach extends the basic ideas from Cazals et al. (2002) to the full multivariate case. We introduce the concepts of conditional efficiency measure and of conditional efficiency measure of order-m. Afterwards we suggest a practical way for computing the nonparametric estimators. Finally, a simple methodology to investigate the influence of these external factors on the production process is proposed. Numerical illustrations through some simulated examples and through a real data set on Mutual Funds show the usefulness of the approach.JEL Classification: C13, C14, D20     

“Panelizing” Repeated Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a non-stationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of binary dependent variables in a time series of repeated cross-sectional (RCS) surveys. The model offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fishers method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch and West German women using ISSP (and other) data from 10 annual Dutch surveys conducted between 1987 and 1996 and 7 annual West German surveys conducted between 1988 and 1994. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are discussed.     

Empirical Bayes analysis of log-linear models for a generalized finite stationary Markov chain

This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established.     

Dynamic and Comparative Static Analysis of Imperfectly Competitive International Fishery

A dynamic system for change of fish stock is formulated assuming that two asymmetric rival countries harvest fish from a common fishing ground and sell it in an imperfectly competitive market. The existence of a unique stable steady state is examined based on the dynamic system. Comparative static analysis is conducted in relation to changes in national fishing management policies to explore, among other things, rent-shifting from one country to another.     

Determinants of dining satisfaction and post-dining behavioral intentions

The purpose of this research is to empirically investigate the determinants and consequences of dining satisfaction with restaurant services. A total of 338 undergraduate business students participated in this research. Results reveal that there exist three sources of customers’ satisfaction with restaurant services: positive emotions, perceived service quality and negative emotions. Positive emotions have more impact on customers’ satisfaction than negative emotions. In addition, emotions mediate the impact of perceived service quality on dining satisfaction. Finally, satisfaction has a significant impact on recommendation, customer loyalty and willingness to pay more.     

The impact of advertising content on movie revenues

We analyze the contents of print ads in the motion picture industry (e.g., number of reviews quoted in the ad, the presence of a top reviewer, size of the ad, star, director, etc.). We find that external validation (a recommendation by a top reviewer) is more important to revenues than the informative content of the ad.     

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects in the drift and the diffusion

Consider N independent stochastic processes \((X_i(t), t\in [0,T])\), \(i=1,\ldots , N\), defined by a stochastic differential equation with random effects where the drift term depends linearly on a random vector \(\Phi _i\) and the diffusion coefficient depends on another linear random effect \(\Psi _i\). For these effects, we consider a joint parametric distribution. We propose and study two approximate likelihoods for estimating the parameters of this joint distribution based on discrete observations of the processes on a fixed time interval. Consistent and \(\sqrt{N}\)-asymptotically Gaussian estimators are obtained when both the number of individuals and the number of observations per individual tend to infinity. The estimation methods are investigated on simulated data and show good performances.     

Digitale Spaltung im Zeitalter der S?ttigung

Using Bourdieu??s Habitus-Capital theory and a representative dataset this study shows that social position influences internet use. The study is thus connected to the research about thedigital divide. A secondary analysis of the ACTA 2008 (n?=?7.623, representative of Germans between 14 and 64 years who use the internet) shows on the one hand that there are still gaps in internet usage (gender, generation, and education gap). On the other hand the results indicate acapital gap. Since the accumulation of capital in the internet is connected with education as well as economic status, there is a threat of a downward spiral: Those who have less capital (education, money) gather less internet knowledge. Since cultural capital influences a person??s social position, internet use enhances social inequality.