沃顿商学院CEO乐闻被收购伎俩

人们一般认为,市场会对公司管理层施加约束力：管理不善将导致股价下跌,进而使公司置于被收购风险下,管理层就会丢掉饭碗。按此逻辑,市场本身就是激励高层提高绩效的良方。     

Multilevel analysis of the changing relationship between class and party in Britain 1964–1992

Previous analyses of the changing relationship between class and vote in Britain have assumed that the British Election Surveys constitute simple random samples. In fact, they are all clustered samples, and the number of sampling points has varied substantially over time. The paper uses the statistical technique of multi-level modelling to investigate the effects of this clustering and compares the results with those obtained with single-level logistic models. In general, the multilevel and single-level models lead to similar conclusions about the changing relation between class and vote; they both show evidence of a change in the class/vote relationship over time. However, the multilevel models also show that, while the clustering does not affect conclusions about the class dealignment debate, there are other important substantive findings which emerge from the multilevel approach. First, there is clear evidence of substantial constituency differences in the intercepts; that is, individuals had very different propensities to vote Conservative in different constituencies. Second, there were also significant constituency differences in class voting, that is, constituencies seemed to vary in their level of class polarization.     

Inflation in the Transition Economies: the post-Keynesian view

The notion that hostile takeovers must play a key role in corporate governance, by bringing purportedly efficient financial market pressures to bear on poorly performing managers, often underlies proposals for financial sector reform. This paper tests the most influential explanation of takeovers, the free cash flow theory of debt-financed restructuring, against a comprehensive sample of large U.S. hostile takeovers from the years 1978‐89. The tests provide little support for the free cash flow hypothesis: that over-retention of corporate resources, relative to investment opportunities, would distinguish targets from other companies. Firms with less debt are more likely to have been taken over. But this and closely related evidence is more consistent with the idea that the takeover and credit markets underwent a period of speculative overheating. Thus the role played by hostile takeovers in the corporate restructuring of the 1980s does not suggest that facilitating such activity should be a goal of present day financial reforms, in Europe or elsewhere     

On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises

Abstract:  This study extends Ertimur et al. (2003) and Jegadeesh and Livnat (2006a) by providing a contextual framework for the information content of revenue and earnings surprises. I find that the influence of earnings surprises (revenue surprises) on stock returns is lower (higher) in R&D intensive companies. Also, market reaction to earnings surprises is lower in the fourth quarter, and to revenue surprises it is higher in industries with oligopolistic competition. A comprehensive analysis indicates that, in contrast to previous studies for the full sample, in several contexts market reaction to earnings surprises is not higher than to revenue surprises.     

Introduction: How to Deal with Uncertainty in Population Forecasting?

Demographers can no more be held responsible for inaccuracy in forecasting population 20 years ahead than geologists, meteorologists, or economists when they fail to announce earthquakes, cold winters, or depressions 20 years ahead. What we can be held responsible for is warning one another and our public what the error of our estimates is likely to be.–Nathan Keyfitz (1981)     

The Interplay among Financial Regulations,Resilience, and Growth

Interconnectedness has been an important source of market failures, leading to the recent financial crisis. Large financial institutions tend to have similar exposures and thus exert externalities on each other through various mechanisms. Regulators have responded by putting in place more regulations with many layers of regulatory complexity, leading to ambiguity and market manipulation. Mispricing risk in complex models and the arbitrage opportunities through the regulatory loopholes have provided incentives for certain activities to be more concentrated in the regulated entities and for other activities to leave the banking into new shadow banking areas. How can we design an effective regulatory framework that would perfectly rule out bank runs and TBTF and to do so without introducing incentives for financial firms to take excessive risk? It is important for financial regulations to be coordinated across regulatory entities and jurisdictions and for financial regulations to be forward looking, rather than aiming to address problems of the past.     

The Asian Drivers and Africa: Learning from Case Studies

(1248) Andrea Goldstein, Nicolas Pinaud, Helmut Reisen and Dorothy McCormick When the OECD Development Centre launched research in 2005 to document the economic, political and social impacts of China’s and India’s economic growth on sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries, the arrival (or resurgence) of new important players had triggered concerns among traditional donors. Accusations ran from free riding on Western debt relief over violation of governance standards and unfair company competition to fragmentation of aid delivery. At the same time, there was a tendency to neglect the diversity of SSA in terms of resource endowments, trade links and industrial development. It was time then to promote African voices from various backgrounds to reflect Africa’s heterogeneity. The introductory section presents a summary of findings about the economic impact of the two Asian giants in SSA countries by Africa‐based economists, with three practical conclusions. First, African countries should favour strategies that minimise areas of direct competition with the Asian giants. Second, industrialisation strategies are required to exploit opportunities complementary to the Asian development path. Third, sectors of mutual interest should be identified in order to develop long‐term views on how to cooperate with China and India and these views should be mainstreamed into national development plans.     

Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze

This paper extends the empirical literature on the cyclical profit squeeze (CPS) theory of crisis by developing a multivariate model with superior decomposition methods. A structural time series (unobserved components) model with trend and structural VAR components is employed. The VAR captures the dynamic cyclical interaction between unemployment and profit's share of income and is interpreted as a linear version of Goodwin's (1967) predator-prey model. Model extensions incorporate the accumulation process and structural shifts. Estimation results for the US economy are used to sort out the controversial relevance of the CPS in the post-1970 period. It is concluded that the CPS is relevant during the period from 1949 to 1985, but is moderately weakened in the post-1970 period. Inconclusive statistical support for the CPS is found for the post-1985 era.     

Infrastructure Development and Regulatory Reform in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Case of Air Transport

This paper analyses the main policy issues raised by regulatory reform in air transport in sub‐Saharan Africa. Its basic premise is that improving ait infrastructure is of paramount importance for the region as it tries to integrate more thoroughly into the world economy. On the basis of the experience of OECD countries with privatisation, liberalisation, and regulatory design, the author analyses progress being made in sub‐Saharan Africa and identifies three important case studies: the restructuring of the regional airline of Francophone Western Africa, the sell‐off of the state‐owned airline of Kenya, and the overall reform process in South Africa, by far the largest market in the sub‐continent. The analysis highlights the importance of regional dynamics in the upgrading of the air transport industry in developing and emerging areas. Sub‐Saharan Africa has made smaller progress in this respect than, for instance, Central America. As the start of the Millennium Round and the first WTO air transport review approach, these issues will gain policy priority for all countries, and may become powerful bargaining tools for non‐OECD countries to press for more open access into OECD markets for the South's traditional exports.     

How do firms make money selling digital goods online?

We review research on revenue models used by online firms who offer digital goods. Such goods are non-rival, have near zero marginal cost of production and distribution, low marginal cost of consumer search, and low transaction costs. Additionally, firms can easily observe and measure consumer behavior. We start by asking what consumers can offer in exchange for digital goods. We suggest that consumers can offer their money, personal information, or time. Firms, in turn, can generate revenue by selling digital content, brokering consumer information, or showing advertising. We discuss the firm’s trade-off in choosing between the different revenue streams, such as offering paid content or free content while relying on advertising revenues. We then turn to specific challenges firms face when choosing a revenue model based on either content, information, or advertising. Additionally, we discuss nascent revenue models that combine different revenue streams such as crowdfunding (content and information) or blogs (information and advertising). We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for future research including implications for firms’ revenue models from the increasing importance of the mobile Internet.