Understanding China's demand for resource imports

Is China's demand for resources driven predominantly by domestic factors or by global demand for its exports? The answer to this question is of interest given the highly resource-intensive nature of China's growth, and is important for many resource-exporting countries, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and India. This paper provides evidence that China's (mainly manufacturing) exports have been a significant driver of its demand for resource commodities over recent decades. First, it employs input–output tables to demonstrate that, historically, manufacturing has been at least as important as construction as a driver of China's demand for resource-intensive metal products. Second, it shows that global trade in non-oil resource commodities can be described by the gravity model of trade. Using this model it is found that, controlling for other determinants of resource trade, exports (and the manufacturing sector more generally) are a sizeable and significant determinant of a country's resource imports, and that this has been true for China as well as for other countries.     

The impact of entry costs on export market participation in agriculture

Theoretical models of market entry imply that sunk costs are an important factor in the decision to export. Following Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) , we develop a simple model of foreign market participation and use a Bayesian method to estimate the resulting dynamic discrete‐choice model with lagged dependent variable. Employing a balanced panel data that follows 81 trading partners for 30 years from 1971 to 2000, we estimate our model and compute the marginal effect of sunk costs on the likelihood of export market participation. We find that such costs are economically and statistically important for trade in all of the six major agricultural commodities (Cereals, Dairy, Fish, Meat, Vegetables and Fruits, and Sugar), for agricultural producers in both developed and developing countries. We also find evidence suggesting that, in general, market access for both developed and developing exporters had improved in the years following the Uruguay round of trade negotiations (1995–2000).     

Toward a model of governance and legality in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from China

This article develops and empirically examines a model of governance and legality of organizations in countries under significant system transformation. While previous research has focused on issues of governance structures, this study suggests that organizational legality is equally important. An analysis of survey data from 127 Chinese managers demonstrates that governance and legality are distinct dimensions. We suggest that an application of this empirically corroborated model to other transformational economies may reveal different configurations of the organizational field, mirror contrasting reform strategies, and indicate the possibility for alternative routes of organizational transformation. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard

Hegwood and Papell (2002) conclude on the basis of analysis in a linear framework that long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold for 16 real exchange rate series, which were analyzed in Diebold. I lusted, and Rush (1991) for the period 1792-1913 under the Gold Standard. Rather, PPP deviations are mean-reverting to a changing equilibrium—a quasi PPP (QPPP) theory. We analyze the real exchange rate adjustment mechanism for their data set assuming a nonlinear adjustment process allowing for both a constant and a mean shifting equilibrium. Our results confirm that real exchange rates at that time were stationary, symmetric, nonlinear processes that revert to a nonconstant equilibrium rate. Speeds of adjustment were much quicker when breaks were allowed.     

VENTURE CAPITAL AND IPO LOCKUP EXPIRATION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Most initial public offerings (IPOs) feature “lockup” agreements, which bar insiders from selling the stock for a set period following the IPO, usually 180 days. We examine stock price behavior in the period surrounding lockup expiration for a sample of 2,529 firms from 1988 to 1997. We find that lockup expirations are, on average, associated with significant and negative abnormal returns, but the losses are concentrated in firms with venture capital backing. For the venture‐capital‐backed group, the largest losses occur for high‐tech firms and firms with the greatest post‐IPO stock price increases, the largest relative trading volume in the period surrounding expiration, and the highest quality underwriters. JEL classification: G14, G24     

THE DECISIONS OF THE SHADOW MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE AND MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE SINCE 2002

We analyse the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the recommendations of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) over the period 2002–2011. We find that the SMPC policy recommendations have to a large extent agreed with the policy actions of the MPC on interest rates. We offer some suggestions as to how the recommendations of the SMPC could be enhanced.