Britt,Steuart Henderson. Psychological Principles of Marketing and Consumer Behavior. Lexington,Mass.: Lexington Books, 1978

Abstract

Conventionally, an advertiser's spending on the creative component of an advertising campaign is small in relation to the media budget and is channeled exclusively to a single advertising agency. Gross challenged those conventions more than 20 years ago, using a mathematical model of advertising effectiveness. His model suggested spending more on the creative component and doing so in a competition among several independent sources. The model assumed a normal distribution of effectiveness of advertisements. Data on response to consumer product ads show that the distribution of effectiveness is not normal, but quite skewed. Using Monté Carlo simulations and Gross's framework, the authors find that the skewness strengthens the case for competition. Shifting a sizable percentage of a campaign budget away from media spending and into competitive generation of creative renderings apparently can be very profitable.     

The Compatibility of Advertising Regulation and the First Amendment

This article argues that advertising regulation and the First Amendment are not nearly so incompatible as has been popularly suggested. The reason lies in their common historical roots. Advertising regulation has its origins in the law of caveat emptor, a law of freedom of speech established from the same philosophical background as was the First Amendment. This relationship is described, and implications for present and future regulation are discussed.     

In Defense of DEFECT

The one-state machine that always defects is the only evolutionarily stable strategy in the machine game that is derived from the prisoners' dilemma, when preferences are lexicographic in complexity. This machine is the only stochastically stable strategy of the machine game when players are restricted to choosing machines with a uniformly bounded complexity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C70, C72.     

INTERNATIONAL LISTINGS, THE SECURITY MARKET LINE AND CAPITAL MARKET INTEGRATION: THE CASE OF US LISTINGS ON THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE

This paper examines for international capital market segmentation by testing for changes (both inter-temporally and inter-beta) in the parameters of the riskreturn pricing relationship caused by the listing of US stocks on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) between 1965 and 1987. It is hypothesized that international listings reduce the negative effects associated with barriers to international investments, help integrate world markets and therefore decrease internationally listed stock's required returns. Significant negative deviations from the Sharpe-Lintner (SL) pre-listing pricing relationship during the postlisting period are therefore expected, primarily caused by decreases in the intercept parameter. We find, in support of the hypothesis, significant negative deviations from the predictions of SL for our sample, although they do not appear to have an intertemporal dimension. These deviations are largely associated both with decreases in the value of the SL model's intercept parameter and with low beta firms, and point toward some integration benefits from US listings on the LSE.     

Resource allocation, equality of access and health

Based upon the experience of Tanzania, this paper relates resource allocation in the health sector to the output of health, by contrasting access to and utilization of available health services by urban and rural populations. The writer argues that increased health expenditures alone cannot yield an efficient health care return unless the additional expenditure is spread ‘thinly’, in keeping with the realities of population distribution, transport possibilities, and disease patterns in most poor countries. Detailed data are presented for recurrent and capital expenditures for health facilities at different levels, and the output of those institutions is considered in terms of the volume of services offered. Those services are then measured according to their utilization by urban and rural populations. Because referral systems are found to function only marginally, it is argued that further building of large hospitals is not justified in the present situation of most poor countries. Specifically, the writer describes the ways in which Tanzania is changing its inefficient and unjust health care system. The paper concludes that the major obstacles to change are not shortages of resources or technologic ignorance but social systems that do not place high value upon the health care needs of rural peasants. It is in this way that the professional and elitist interests of the few are often destructive of the needs of the many.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis

In this article, we analyze the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports, using Spanish quarterly data for the period 1977–1998, by means of Granger causality tests in a cointegration framework. Our results point to the existence of a relationship of complementarity between both variables, with Granger causality running in the short run from outward FDI to exports, and bilateral Granger causality in the long run.     

Economy as a Social System: Niklas Luhmann's Contribution and its Significance for Economics

Niklas Luhmann's (1927–1998) ambitious research project was aimed not only at describing society as a global social system, but it also analyzed various subsystems (including an economic one). The article assesses Luhmann's vision of the economy, summarized mainly in his Wirtschaft der Gesellschaft, wherein he addresses basic economic notions: the economic system, money, prices, rationality, and the market. I then interpret his ideas in the context of modern discussions in economics (intersubjective structures, complex systems, and evolutionary modeling). I also propose some heuristics implied by Luhmann's economic ontology, which are potentially interesting for methodological and theoretical strategies of modern economics.     

Sequential estimate for linear regression models with uncertain number of effective variables

As a result of novel data collection technologies, it is now common to encounter data in which the number of explanatory variables collected is large, while the number of variables that actually contribute to the model remains small. Thus, a method that can identify those variables with impact on the model without inferring other noneffective ones will make analysis much more efficient. Many methods are proposed to resolve the model selection problems under such circumstances, however, it is still unknown how large a sample size is sufficient to identify those “effective” variables. In this paper, we apply sequential sampling method so that the effective variables can be identified efficiently, and the sampling is stopped as soon as the “effective” variables are identified and their corresponding regression coefficients are estimated with satisfactory accuracy, which is new to sequential estimation. Both fixed and adaptive designs are considered. The asymptotic properties of estimates of the number of effective variables and their coefficients are established, and the proposed sequential estimation procedure is shown to be asymptotically optimal. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimation method, and a diabetes data set is used as an example.     

Perceptions of Change in Business Relationships and Networks

Our research deals with the role of actors in change in business relationships and networks. In this study, we explore how cognitive elaboration of experience of a relationship affects the relationship development. The link between behaviors and cognitive elaborations has been the object of recent research in marketing, but little attention has been given to the issue of cognition and behaviors when actors interact in business relationships. Given the role of relationships and their dynamics for the development of business networks, we believe that the issue deserves more attention. Also, compared to the interest in the space dimension of business networks, i.e., network pictures, perceptions of time have been under-investigated. We report findings from 84 bilateral interviews with managers involved as customers or suppliers in 21 relationships with ICT Security at two points in time. We collected their interpretations and reinterpretations of past developments, outcomes, and desired outcomes of the relationships in which they were involved. Our data suggest that the link between managers' cognitive elaborations and relationship dynamics is less direct than commonly assumed. We argue that evolution of a relationship cannot be explained by individual interpretations of the parties involved in the relationship; a preliminary finding is that actors' intentions appear more to shape the interpretations, rather than the contrary.     

Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to ‘orthodox’ stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal–monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.