The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

Der neue Standard zur bilanziellen Abbildung von Versicherungsverträgen (IFRS 17) – Eine kritische Analyse der Auswirkungen auf die Versicherungsbranche

The new standard for the accounting of insurance contracts (IFRS 17) will entail substantial changes for the insurance industry. In the following article the new standard is critically analyzed. First and foremost the coming valuation model, the so-called building block approach, is presented which will be the basis for all insurance contracts within the scope of IFRS 17. (For certain insurance contracts, especially those with direct participation features, or for less complex or short-term insurance contracts, there are some modifications.) To be more precise, IFRS 17 introduces an enterprise-specific valuation approach that is grounded on the so-called fulfilment value. This fulfilment value is determined by four separate building blocks (fulfilment-cashflow, discount rate, risk margin and contractual service margin), which will be addressed in detail. Finally, major changes in performed accounting practices that insurance enterprises are confronted with and will have to adapt to in their financial statements and accounts are pointed out.     

Minimum return guarantees,investment caps,and investment flexibility

We study the merits of capped retirement products with guarantee for investors who have the flexibility to dynamically adjust their investment strategy. All contracts under consideration are fairly priced such that the net profit of the provider is zero. Without the rider, an expected utility maximizing CRRA investor does not want an investment cap. Here, she commits herself to a strategy a priori. With the flexibility rider, the optimization problem changes and the optimal strategy is a response to an exogenously set price. A fair pricing then anticipates the optimal response of the investor. We show that the maximum expected utility of the investor can, for anticipated fairly priced products, be obtained for a finite cap. Thus, a capped product design can give a Pareto improvement to the otherwise uncapped contract version.     

Me or information technology? Adoption of artificial intelligence in the delegation of personal strategic decisions

Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the way we do business. Whereas both the adoption of technological innovations and strategic decision making have been subject to prior research, this experimental study is first to combine both. To understand the impact of choice complexity and cognitive perceptions on the willingness to delegate a strategic decision to an algorithm, we conducted an experiment with 310 participants. We find that although choice complexity has no effect, participants with low levels of situational awareness are more likely to delegate. The findings augment research on choice complexity in decision making by emphasizing the relevance of cognitive perceptions.