The New Deal and Modern Memory

The “Great Recession,” which began at year‐end 2007, was precipitated by plunging real estate values, followed by borrower defaults and financial crisis for the public and private institutions that supplied loanable funds to the mortgage market. With economic growth not yet returned to trend, three years on more than 9% of the American labor force remains unemployed. Current macroeconomic events, perhaps inevitably, have been compared to those of the Great Depression of 1929–1933, both in terms of severity and of the efficacy of the public policies adopted ostensibly to restore prosperity. In this article, I review the literature on the New Deal, paying particular attention to modern scholarship emphasizing the role of presidential politics and antibusiness political rhetoric in deepening and prolonging the Great Depression. The parallels between then and now suggest that the two economic contractions had similar causes and elicited equally counterproductive policy responses.     

When Do Analysts Adjust for Biases in Management Guidance? Effects of Guidance Track Record and Analysts’ Incentives

Prior research indicates that analysts do not fully adjust for the general downward bias in earnings guidance issued by management. We report the results of two experiments designed to investigate how guidance track record and analysts’ incentives jointly explain the extent to which analysts adjust for guidance bias. Our results suggest that analysts with accuracy incentives adjust for management’s track record of downwardly biased guidance when the bias is relatively small (one cent), but those with relationship incentives do not. Furthermore, the difference in adjustment is larger when the bias track record is inconsistent than when it is consistent. Also, when guidance bias is larger (two cents) relative to smaller (one cent), analysts with relationship incentives partially adjust, as they appear to strike a balance between accuracy and their desire to please management. These findings hold implications for investors, regulators, and the interpretation of prior research.     

Joint determination of biological encephalization,economic specialization

In this paper, we develop a paleoeconomic model of the co-evolution of economic specialization and encephalization—the common physiological measure of intelligence as reflected by brain mass relative to total body mass. Our economic analysis links ecological and social intelligence theories of increased encephalization in early hominins through a model in which both economic and ecological feedbacks jointly determined the evolutionary incentives. We focus on degrees of specialization affected by coordination costs with and without market exchange. Our results suggest encephalization would be a process characterized by diminishing returns to behavioral advances. In terms of the long-running debate in economics over whether specialization increases or decreases intelligence, our results suggest from an evolutionary perspective the answer depends on economic/social institutions and how these influence ecological interactions.     

Factors Influencing NCQA Accreditation Decisions of HMOs

This paper describes how National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA) accreditation of a managed care plan can be used as a signal of plan quality. A model is then developed examining the factors affecting the probability that a plan will be accredited. Larger and older plans are more likely to be accredited. For-profit plans are also more likely to be accredited. Competition in the marketplace from other accredited plans increases the probability of a plan being accredited. The results indicate that plans that have lower costs of accrediting as proxied by size and age are more likely to be accredited.     

Spatial determinants of Japanese FDI in China

Research on foreign direct investment in China has spawned an increasingly large literature. Whilst regional cleavages with respect to the distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) are acknowledged, empirical research on the spatial determinants of FDI in China has been limited. Furthermore, research on the spatial determinants of home country FDI in China has thus far been neglected due to difficulties in accessing the appropriate data. The objective of this paper is to examine the spatial determinants of Japanese direct investment in China by using an econometric model. To that purpose, a dataset is created from the Toyo Keizai directory on the overseas activities of Japanese companies. The results show that tertiary education, inland waterways, as well as coastal location are positive and significant determinants of Japanese investment in China.