VALUING HEALTH EFFECTS: THE CASE OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICLES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

This study presents a conservative estimate of the health benefits that would result from attainment of the federal ozone and fine particle (PM_2.5) standards in the South Coast Air Basin of southern California. A three‐stage approach is used that links pollution exposures to adverse health outcomes to economic values. The annual value of the aggregate health benefits approaches $500 million (with a range of $295–$646 million) for ozone and exceeds $21 billion (with a range of $12.85–$34.22 billion) for fine particles. Such results are useful to regulatory agencies and other policy makers when evaluating the merits of various air pollution reduction strategies. (JEL Q51, Q53)     

Families' use of the 1982 tax cut income

The likely allocation of extra income from the 1982 U.S. income lax rate reduction by a group of consumers was investigated. Eighty-five percent of the sample indicated they were likely to spend the additional income and 75% that they would save or invest it. Saving was related to income and age. Those indicating they were likely to save said they would require a larger sum of money as a result of the tax cut in order to make a decision about its use than did those who were most likely to spend it.     

Consumer Ruthlessness and Mortgage Default during the 2007 to 2009 Housing Bust

From 2007 to 2009 U.S. house prices plunged and mortgage defaults surged. While ostensibly consistent with widespread “ruthless default,” analysis of detailed mortgage and house price data indicates that borrowers do not walk away until they are deeply underwater—far deeper than traditional models predict. The evidence suggests that lender recourse is not the major driver of this result. We argue that emotional and behavioral factors play an important role in decisions to continue paying. Borrower reluctance to walk away implies that the moral hazard cost of default as a form of social insurance may be lower than suspected.     

The ‘Global’ in the City Economy: Multicultural Economic Development in Birmingham

This article draws on critiques of ‘global cities’ to conceptualize Birmingham, the UK's second largest metropole, as a ‘global’ city by highlighting forms of economic globalization that draw on the city's residents, their histories and their social and cultural networks. The article illustrates some of the diversity and significance of minority ethnic economic activity within Birmingham and the potential this holds for its future economic development, focusing on examples from three transnational networks (Chinese business networks, ethnic food manufacturing and the Bhangra music industry). The article signals a rather different understanding of ‘global’ as it relates to economic advantage, transnationalism and ethnic diversity within cities in general, and Birmingham in particular. We suggest that this different understanding of the global has important policy implications, not simply in terms of economic representations of the city, but also in terms of developing the possibilities of such transnational networks and engaging with the constraints facing them. We argue that encouraging a more relational way of thinking about cities like Birmingham has the potential for advancing social wellbeing by influencing socio‐economic policy and practice. We use the example of Birmingham, therefore, to engage broader debates about alternative paths of ‘global’ economic, social and cultural investment for UK (and other) cities. A partir de critiques des ‘villes planétaires’, cet article conceptualise Birmingham (deuxième métropole britannique) en tant que ville ‘planétaire’ en soulignant les formes de mondialisation économique qui s’appuient sur les citadins, leurs histoires et leurs réseaux sociaux et culturels. Pour illustrer en partie la diversité et la place de l’activitééconomique ethnique des minorités à Birmingham, ainsi que le potentiel afférent pour son essor économique futur, ce travail s’intéresse à des exemples issus de trois réseaux transnationaux (réseaux d’affaires chinois, fabrication d’alimentation ethnique et secteur de la musique indienne Bhangra). Il repère une compréhension assez différente de ‘planétaire’, selon que le terme est liéà un avantage économique, au transnationalisme et à la diversité ethnique au sein des grandes villes, et de Birmingham en particulier. Cette perception multiple a d’importantes implications politiques, à la fois au plan des représentations économiques de la ville et en termes de création de possibilités pour ces réseaux transnationaux et de prise en compte des contraintes à affronter. Encourager un mode de réflexion plus relationnelà l’égard de villes comme Birmingham permettrait de promouvoir le bien‐être social en influant sur la pratique et la politique socio‐économique. Le cas de Birmingham sert donc à lancer des débats plus larges sur les options d’acheminement de l’investissement économique, social et culturel ‘planétaire’ pour les grandes villes britanniques (et étrangères).     

A Reexamination of Auditor versus Model Accuracy within the Context of the Going-Concern Opinion Decision*

Abstract. The Cohen Commission and previous research have suggested that auditors' opinions are inferior indicators of bankruptcy relative to the predictions of statistical models. This research reexamines this question in light of two important considerations that make the comparison between audit opinions and model predictions considerably more reflective of the auditors' real-world decision environment. First, the sample is partitioned into stressed and nonstressed observations and the importance of doing so is demonstrated; second, the statistical models and the forecast errors are adjusted so that they reflect the proportion of bankrupt firms actually faced by auditors. The empirical results provide convincing evidence suggesting that the notion established in previous research that auditors' opinions are interior to models in predicting bankruptcy is unfounded. It should be noted, however, that neither the auditors' opinions nor the bankruptcy prediction model are very good predictors of bankruptcy when population proportions, differences in misclassification costs, and financial stress levels are considered. Résumé. Les travaux de recherche de la Commission Cohen et d'autres travaux qui les ont précédés semblent indiquer que les opinions des vérificateurs sont des indicateurs de faillite moins efficaces que les prédictions des modèles statistiques. Les auteurs se penchent à leur tour sur cette question, à la lumière de deux éléments importants qui font en sorte que la comparaison entre les opinions des vérificateurs et les modèles prévisionnels s'inscrit beaucoup plus dans le contexte décisionnel véritable dans lequel travaillent les vérificateurs. D'abord, l'échantillon est scindé en deux groupes d'observations selon la présence ou l'absence de contrainte financière, partage dont les auteurs expliquent l'importance; ensuite, les modèles statistiques et les erreurs prévisionnelles sont ajustés de manière & refléter la proportion des sociétés dont la faillite a été envisagée par le vérificateur. Les résultats empiriques démontrent de façon probante que les conclusions tirées des travaux précédents selon lesquelles les opinions des vérificateurs sont moins efficaces que les modèles en matière de prévision des faillites ne sont pas fondées. Il convient de noter, cependant, que ni les opinions des vérificateurs ni les modèles prévisionnels ne sont des prédicteurs très efficaces des faillites si l'on tient compte des proportions de la population, des différences dans le coût des erreurs de classification et du niveau de contrainte financière.     

Country-of-origin effect in apparel choices: A conjoint analysis

The purpose of this study was to determine Canadian consumers' beliefs about, and preferences for apparel products made in Canada, China and some other low-cost nations. The importance of the country-of-origin of garments relative to other apparel attributes in consumers' purchase decisions was also examined. Information integration theory provided the theoretical foundation for a conjoint analysis of product ratings. A simulated purchase of fleece sweatshirts was designed to conduct the conjoint analysis experiment. Consumers' beliefs regarding various attributes of apparel products made in Canada, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea were also measured. Significant differences were found in consumers' beliefs about garments made in different countries regarding quality, price, style and fit. Canadian clothing was perceived to be superior in quality, style and fit, but the most expensive. Results of the conjoint analysis indicated that Canada was the most preferred country-of-origin. The effect of country-of-origin on subjects' evaluations of sweatshirts, however, was less important than that of either quality or price. Beliefs about quality, price, style and fit of garments made in Canada, China and South Korea were found to be significantly related to subjects' utilities for sweatshirts made in such countries. Differences in beliefs and utilities were found among respondents differing in awareness of country-of-origin, ethnic background, age and education, but not among those who held different opinions about supporting domestic industries.     

Childhood and child labour in the British industrial revolution1

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of a large number of autobiographies by working men who lived through the industrial revolution has demonstrated that there was an upsurge in child labour in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries with children's work entrenched in traditional sectors as well as spreading in newly mechanized factories and workshops. I have interpreted this rise in terms of the appearance of a new equilibrium in the early industrial economy with more and younger children at work. The new equilibrium, in turn, was related to a number of co‐incidental developments including: an increase in the relative productivity of children as a result of mechanization, new divisions of labour, and changes in the organization of work; the dynamics of competitive dependence linking labour market and families; high dependency ratios within families; stumbling male wages and pockets of poverty; family instability; and breadwinner frailty. The establishment of these links forges a new synchronization between revised views of the industrial revolution and a revisionist history of child labour.