PIRACY ON THE SILVER SCREEN*

Using survey data on movie consumption by about 500 University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students, we ask whether unpaid consumption of movies displaces paid consumption. A variety of cross‐sectional and longitudinal empirical approaches show large and statistically significant evidence of displacement. In the most appropriate empirical specification, we find that unpaid first consumption reduces paid consumption by about 1 unit. Unpaid second consumption has a smaller effect, about 0.20 units. Our analysis indicates that unpaid consumption, which makes up 5.2 per cent of movie viewing in our sample, reduced paid consumption in our sample by 3.5 per cent.     

DOES INFORMATION UNDERMINE BRAND? INFORMATION INTERMEDIARY USE AND PREFERENCE FOR BRANDED WEB RETAILERS*

Investments in brand, and third‐party information, provide alternative methods for convincing potential customers that vendors will deliver as promised. This study uses a 13‐month panel dataset on 1998–99 Internet shopping behavior and use of information intermediaries by over 30,000 households to examine whether information use undermines brand. Individuals using price comparison sites substantially increase their level of shopping at unbranded retail sites, while they shop less at Amazon. The results have possible implications for both firm strategy and the evolution of market structure. If information weakens the pull of brand, then Internet retailing may grow less concentrated over time.     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

Sequential Bayesian Analysis in accounting settings*

Abstract. The familiar decision analysis setting in accounting, such as a cost-volume-profit analysis setting, is modeled as arising in a “larger” context in which subsequent choice is also contemplated. We then ask when this “larger” context decomposes in a manner such that the immediate problem of interest can be modeled as an expected utility maximization problem that is completely divorced from the subsequent choice problem. Outcome and taste independence conditions are the key ingredients in being able to model the immediate problem as having no link whatever to its successor. Résumé. Le contexte dans lequel les techniques d'analyse de décision comme par exemple l'analyse co?t-volume-profit est utilisée est un cadre d'un modèle élargi qui tient compte du choix subséquent. On se demande en quelles circonstances ce contexte élargi peut-il se décomposer de façon telle que le problème d'intérêt immédiat en soit un de maximisation complètement séparé du problème du choix subséquent. Le résultat et des conditions d'indépendance de préférence sont les ingrédients clés pour modeler le problème immédiat comme n'ayant aucun lien avec son successeur.     

A Strategy for Labor

Labor's decline is advanced, disastrous for democracy, and unlikely to be relieved by labor law reform at the national level. Unions need a strategy for revival that does not premise such relief, and that takes account of the deeper changes in social and economic organization that have undermined their strength. Such a strategy is available, but it requires a sharp break with the uncoordinated, firm-centered, and politically non-independent “service model” unionism, exclusively preoccupied with units where majority status has been achieved, still generally practiced today.     

Regulatory Arbitrage and International Bank Flows

We study whether cross‐country differences in regulations have affected international bank flows. We find strong evidence that banks have transferred funds to markets with fewer regulations. This form of regulatory arbitrage suggests there may be a destructive “race to the bottom” in global regulations, which restricts domestic regulators’ ability to limit bank risk‐taking. However, we also find that the links between regulation differences and bank flows are significantly stronger if the recipient country is a developed country with strong property rights and creditor rights. This suggests that, while differences in regulations have important influences, without a strong institutional environment, lax regulations are not enough to encourage massive capital flows.     

Order Arrival,Quote Behavior,and the Return-Generating Process

This paper establishes three empirical results. We find positive autocorrelation in actual intra-day stock returns, in intra-day returns computed from quote midpoints, and in the arrival of buy and sell orders. We present a model of return generation that incorporates these features via lagged adjustment of the limit-order price and positive dependence in bid and ask transactions. The return model is observationally equivalent to an ARMA process, which is consistent with the observed return behavior.     

Stock Returns,Inflation, and Economic Activity: The Survey Evidence

The primary purpose of this paper is the use of survey expectations data to study the empirical relationships between stock returns, inflation, and economic activity. In the course of this analysis and as a secondary purpose, the paper discusses general considerations involving the use of expectations proxies and makes recommendations for econometric techniques. The main empirical findings are: (1) Hypothesized relationships between expected economic activity and expected inflation do not in practice appear to be important in explaining the negative relationship between expected inflation and stock returns. (2) Nevertheless, the survey data do lend some support to the hypothesis of a quantity theory relationship between expected inflation and expected economic activity, holding constant monetary growth. (3) The cross-forecaster dispersion of economic activity forecasts, a proxy for real uncertainty, appears to be a significant determinant of stock returns. Inclusion of this variable eliminates the negative impact of expected inflation.