MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE 1986 OIL PRICE DECLINE

The oil price decline during 1986 sparked a renewed debate over how oil price changes affect the economy and whether the effects of oil price declines are equal and opposite those of oil price increases. This article reviews theoretical and more casual arguments concerning this issue and describes some tests rejecting the hypothesis that the effects of oil price declines are asymmetric to those of oil price increases.     

Information Content of Insider Trading Around Corporate Announcements: The Case of Capital Expenditures

There is gathering evidence of insider trading around corporate announcements of dividends, capital expenditures, equity issues and repurchases, and other capital structure changes. Although signaling models have been used to explain the price reaction of these announcements, a usual assumption made in these models is that insiders cannot trade to gain from such announcements. An innovative feature of this paper is to model trading by corporate insiders (subject to disclosure regulation) as one of the signals. Detailed testable predictions are described for the interaction of corporate announcements and concurrent insider trading. In particular, such interaction is shown to depend crucially on whether the firm is a growth firm, a mature firm, or a declining firm. Empirical proxies for firm technology are developed based on measures of growth and Tobin's q ratio. In the underlying “efficient” signaling equilibrium, investment announcements and net insider trading convey private information of insiders to the market at least cost. The paper also addresses issues of deriving intertemporal announcement effects from the equilibrium (cross-sectional) pricing functional. Other announcement effects relate the intensity of the market response to insider trading, variance of firm cash flows, risk aversion of the insiders, and characteristics of firm technology (growth, mature, or declining).     

INTEREST RATES, RATE SPREADS, AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Interest rates and the spreads between interest rates are widely regarded as useful indicators of the future level of economic activity. This paper shows that when these series are divided into (i) an ordinary time series process and (ii) the effects of extraordinary disturbances, only the extraordinary disturbances predict economic activity. These disturbances are associated with periods of monetary policy intervention. Most of the predictive power is in contractionary disturbances that have persistent effects over time. The results imply that the predictive power of interest rates comes primarily from periods of contractionary monetary policy and is not due to ordinary movements in interest rates.     

Taxation when Borrowing is Costly*

The implications for taxation theory of a life-cycle model of consumption incorporating financial transactions costs are derived The equity case for progressive taxation is shown to correspond in a life-cycle setting, to an efficiency case. Individuals prefer a progressive tax system to a proportional one because the tax burden is lower when they are young and face high transactions costs of borrowing. Similarly, an income tax is preferred to a consumption tax. Unlike earlier models based on liquidity constraints, the model presented here involves a financial sector consuming real resources. This permits analysis of the tax treatment of financial services in a consumption tax system. Exemption of financial services will generally be desirable.     

Employers' Online Search: An Empirical Analysis

Drawing on job postings at an online job board, we find that employers who have to fill their vacancies immediately specify fewer job requirements, provide more details about the job application process, and are quicker to withdraw their vacancies from the job board than employers with job openings that do not have to be filled immediately. These findings offer new insights into the role of vacancy costs in determining how employers search for workers online.     

Exploring intersections of physicality and female‐only canoeing experiences1

The benefits of single‐gender experiences for females have been discussed in a variety of contexts, including education, sport and outdoor recreation. In both the discourses of female‐run outdoor adventure travel programs providing such experiences, and the leisure studies and outdoor education literatures, claims are made about the distinct social environment created on such trips and the positive outcomes for females undertaking them. Absent from these discourses is reference to empirical research exploring women's perceptions of such experiences, thereby allowing one to evaluate the merit of such claims. In what would initially appear to be an observation in a completely different vein, there is also a relative dearth of scholarly examinations within leisure and recreational studies of women's lived‐body experiences of their physicalities through active outdoor recreation, and the potentially empowering effects of them. This paper seeks to draw out the connections between these seemingly disparate observations through a qualitative examination of women's experiences of female‐only wilderness canoeing. While the reasons articulated by the women for undertaking such an experience did not explicitly identify issues related to their physicalities, clearly these issues resonated with and held implications for their experiences of them. This, in turn, provides substantiation for claims regarding the importance of the provision of all‐female outdoor experiences.     

Individualism and Momentum around the World

This paper examines how cultural differences influence the returns of momentum strategies. Cross-country cultural differences are measured with an individualism index developed by Hofstede (2001) , which is related to overconfidence and self-attribution bias. We find that individualism is positively associated with trading volume and volatility, as well as to the magnitude of momentum profits. Momentum profits are also positively related to analyst forecast dispersion, transaction costs, and the familiarity of the market to foreigners, and negatively related to firm size and volatility. However, the addition of these and other variables does not dampen the relation between individualism and momentum profits.     

将预算弱势变为优势

面对预算,作为财务总监的你,是兴奋、乐观、干劲十足,还是头疼、无奈、缺乏信心?根据Centage公司和管理及行政学院(IOMA)的调查,最糟糕的是由于不完善的预算编