CEO Turnover and Retention Light: Retaining Former CEOs on the Board

Prior CEO turnover literature characterizes the board's decision as a choice between retaining versus replacing the CEO. We focus instead on the CEO's decision rights and introduce a third option in which the incumbent CEO is removed but retained on the board for an extended period, which we call Retention Light. Firms may benefit from Retention Light because former CEOs possess unique monitoring and advising abilities, but the former CEO could also exploit available decision rights for personal benefit. A Retention Light CEO's decision rights generally exceed those of CEOs who exit the firm entirely but fall short of the rights of a retained CEO. We find that when prior firm performance is better, the former CEO is more likely to be retained on the board (Retention Light) than to exit the firm. However, this relation is weaker when the CEO reaches normal retirement age at which time CEO power becomes more important. We also provide evidence on how the nature of the CEO's bargaining power varies with his personal attributes and board characteristics in its influence on the Retention Light decision. Retention Light firms are more likely than CEO‐exit firms to select a successor CEO with relatively weaker bargaining power. Finally, Retention Light involving a nonfounder CEO is negatively associated with the firm's postturnover financial performance. Overall, Retention Light is a distinct CEO turnover option that has important consequences for board decisions and firm performance.     

HETEROGENEITY,EXCESS ZEROS,AND THE STRUCTURE OF COUNT DATA MODELS

This paper demonstrates that the unobserved heterogeneity commonly assumed to be the source of overdispersion in count data models has predictable implications for the probability structure of such mixture models. In particular, the common observation of excess zeros is a strict implication of unobserved heterogeneity. This result has important implications for using count model estimates for predicting certain interesting parameters. Test statistics to detect such heterogeneity-related departures from the null model are proposed and applied in a health-care utilization example, suggesting that a null Poisson model should be rejected in favour of a mixed alternative. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Of paradigms and metaphors in auditing thought*

Abstract. Assumptions serve as the basis from which we reason and therefore pervasively influence the nature of our understanding of any substantive area. Auditing is no exception. Yet, the core assumptions that underlie auditing thought have largely been left unexamined. The purpose of this paper is to examine the core ontological assumptions, (assumptions as to the primitive elements of what constitutes reality), and epistemological assumptions, (assumptions as to how knowledge is attained), that underlie contemporary auditing thought. It is concluded: 1) that auditing is characterized by an overwhelming domination of a functionalist paradigm, which views reality as concrete and objective (rather than uncertain and subjective) and which emphasizes a regularized, patterned existence (rather than one characterized by intrinsic tension and contradiction); and 2) that this paradigm ultimately influences and constrains our understanding of auditing. Alternative paradigms are used to examine the concepts of audit evidence and auditor consensus to dramatize the effects of making alternative assumptions of reality. Implications for practitioners and for researchers are also explored. Résumé. Les hypothèses servent de fondement à nos raisonnements et par conséquent, influencent l'essence de notre compréhension de tout domaine. La vérification n'est pas une exception et les hypothèses essentielles qui sous-tendent la pensée en vérification, n'ont pas vraiment été examinées. L'objectif de cet article est d'examiner les hypothèses essentielles ontologiques (hypothèses concernant les éléments primitifs de ce qui constitue la réalité) et les hypothèses épistémologiques (hypothèses relatives au comment de l'atteinte de la connaissance) qui sous-tendent la pensée contemporaine en vérification. On y conclut: 1) que la vérification est caractérisée par une domination écrasante d'un paradigme fonctionnel qui voit la réalité comme étant concrète et objective (plutôt qu'incertaine et subjective) et qui met l'emphase sur une existence régularisée et modelée (plutôt qu'une existence caractérisée par la contradiction et une tension intrinsèque); et 2) que ce paradigme influence et contraint ultimement notre compréhension de la vérification. Des paradigmes alternatifs sont utilisés pour examiner les concepts d'information probante et de consensus du vérificateur afin de dramatiser les effets d'utiliser des hypothèses alternatives de la réalité. Les implications pour les practiciens et les chercheurs sont également considérées.     

Forecasting the Market Return on Common Stocks

Most institutional fund managers attempt to adjust the stock-bond composition of portfolios over time in anticipation of stock market movements. Using quarterly data in 1962–72 for the United States, this paper demonstrates that 'profitable' strategies for timing portfolio composition in common stocks and Treasury bills are generally not attainable after transaction costs if one uses lagged observations of corporate profit, money supply and consumer sentiment to forecast the market return, as this information is largely reflected in current stock prices. By contrast, accurate forecasts of these aggregate variables lead to substantial market-timing profits relative to a buy-and-hold policy of remaining fully invested in common stocks.     

The Consumer Tax Equivalent of a Tariff with Imperfect Substitutes

In estimating the Consumer Tax Equivalent (CTE) and Producer Subsidy Equivalent (PSE) of a tariff, it is often assumed that the imported good is a perfect substitute for the relevant locally made good. However, in evaluating the economy-wide effects of a change in tariff using general equilibrium models, it is common to assume that the imported good is an imperfect substitute (so-called Arming-ton assumption)¹ This paper estimates CTE assuming imperfect substitution in order to be consistent with the assumption commonly used in general equilibrium models. It shows how estimates of the CTE and PSE are sensitive to assumptions about the substitution elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of supply for the locally made good.