The Turn-of-the-Year in Canada

A number of investigators have reported that January stock returns in the U.S. exceed returns for other months of the year. This paper documents a similar finding for Canadian stocks over the period 1951–1980. However, Canada did not introduce a capital gains tax until 1973 and the paper reports that January returns in Canada exceed returns for other months of the year before and after this date. Thus, these data do not support the tax-loss-selling-pressure hypothesis as the entire explanation for the turn-of-the-year effect in stock returns, nor, by implication, do they support the tax-loss-selling-pressure hypothesis as the complete explanation for the “small firm” effect in U.S. stocks returns.     

L'information financière stratégique: le cas des négociations collectives*

Résumé. Les auteurs analysent le comportement stratégique des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la diffusion publique de l'information financière dans 673 communications publiées avant, pendant et après quatre grèves syndicales au Canada. L'information financière, publiée dans la presse écrite au cours des périodes auxquelles les auteurs se sont intéressés, comportait des données quantitatives et qualitatives au sujet des entreprises échantillonnées. Le comportement stratégique suppose la désignation d'un acteur par un autre dans l'information communiquée. Les analyses ont révélé que la fréquence des communications était beaucoup plus élevée pendant les grèves et immédiatement avant qu'au cours d'autres périodes. Des techniques d'analyse de réseau ont été employées pour examiner les liens unissant sept groupes d'acteurs qui ont été désignés dans l'information communiquée. Les réseaux de communication d'information ont augmenté en densité au cours des grèves mais se sont décentralisés, L'analyse confirme l'hypothèse selon laquelle les interactions stratégiques dans l'information communiquée sont multilatérales et dynamiques. Il serait donc simpliste de chercher à modéliser la communication d'information financière dans le cadre de négociations collectives sous forme de joute bilatérale à laquelle se livrent les parties sur une période donnée. La gestion de la communication d'information dans ce contexte semble s'opérer dans une conjoncture économique et sociale complexe.     

SOME EMPIRICAL EFFECTS OF USING PERMANENT STRIKER REPLACEMENTS

This study uses survey data to examine issues related to legislation that would bar employers from permanently replacing striking workers. Hiring permanent replacements does not significantly affect the proportion of full capacity at which the employer operates struck facilities but significantly decreases the proportion of bargaining unit members who get back their jobs after a strike. More controversially, firms hiring permanent replacements obtain less favorable collective bargaining contracts than do firms that do not hire permanent replacements .     

What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns

This paper uses a vector autoregressive model to decompose excess stock and 10-year bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and excess stock and bond returns. In monthly postwar U.S. data, stock and bond returns are driven largely by news about future excess stock returns and inflation, respectively. Real interest rates have little impact on returns, although they do affect the short-term nominal interest rate and the slope of the term structure. These findings help to explain the low correlation between excess stock and bond returns.     

Notes and Numbers on Marx's Falling Rate of Profit*

The purpose of this paper is to estimate and investigate the behaviour of Marx's rate of profit for the period 1919 to 1981. The components of this rate, viz. constant and variable capital which are consistently defined as stock variables, surplus value, organic composition of capital and rate of exploitation, are estimaed for two sub periods for the manufacturing and the corporate enterprises sectors respectively. The rate of profit does not exhibit a discernible trend movement over the period of observation. However, it is subject to pronounced pro-cyclical variations. A similar picture emerges for the organic composition of capital and the rate of exploitation. The results are critically evalualed.     

Indirect Tax Exemptions and the Distribution ot Lifetime Income: A Simulation Analysis*

This paper uses a simulation model to compare the lifetime consequences of a revenue neutral partial shift towards a consumption tax, involving exemptions, with its cross-sectional effects. Exemptions of goods consumed proportionately more by lower income groups reduce the inequality of the distribution of net lifetime consumption by more than in the cross-sectional case. However, the tax shift increases lifetime inequality by more than it increases cross-sectional inequality, and the net effect is that exemptions cannot compensate for the income tax change. Concern with inequality is most appropriately handled by raising transfer payments rather than introducing exemptions.