American option valuation using first-passage densities

This paper explores the advantages of pricing American options using the first-passage density of a Brownian motion to a curved barrier. First, we demonstrate that, under this approach, the exact computation of the optimal boundary becomes secondary. Consequently, a simple approximation to the optimal boundary suffices to obtain accurate prices. Moreover, the first-passage approach tends to give more accurate prices than the early-exercise-premium integral representation. We present two ways of implementing the approach. The first is based on an exact representation of the first-passage density. The second exploits the method of images, which gives us a family of barriers with first-passage densities given in closed form. Both methods are very easy to implement and give accurate prices. In particular, the images-based method is extremely accurate.     

Banking Competition,Collateral Constraints,and Optimal Monetary Policy

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions: monopolistically competitive banks that charge endogenous lending spreads, and collateral constraints. We show that welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the “consumption gap” between borrowers and savers, and a “housing gap” that measures the distortion in the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Collateral constraints create a trade‐off between stabilization goals. Following both productivity and financial shocks, and relative to strict inflation targeting, the optimal policy implies sharper movements in the policy rate, aimed primarily at reducing fluctuations in asset prices and hence in borrowers' net worth. The policy trade‐offs become amplified as banking competition increases, due to the fall in lending spreads and the resulting increase in borrowers' leverage.     

From Wall Street to Main Street: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Consumer Credit Supply

How did the collapse of the asset‐backed securities (ABS) market during the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis affect the supply of credit to the broader economy? Using new data on the U.S. credit union industry, we find that ABS‐related losses are associated with a large contraction in the supply of credit to consumers, especially among those credit unions that began the crisis with weaker capitalization. We also find that this credit supply shock restricted the availability of mortgage and automobile credit. These results show how movements in the prices of financial assets can affect the real economy.     

Comparable Axiomatizations of Two Allocation Rules for Cooperative Games with Transferable Utility and Their Subclass of Data Games

The axiom of balanced collective contributions is introduced as a collective variant of the axiom of balanced contributions proposed by Myerson. It requires the identical average impact of the withdrawal of any agent from a game on the remaining population. It turns out that the axiom of balanced collective contributions and the classical axiom of efficiency characterize the equal allocation of nonseparable costs, an allocation rule that is extensively used in cost allocation problems and in accounting. In particular, the equal allocation of nonseparable costs coincides with the nucleolus on the class of data games within the European REACH legislation. While our result does not hold on data games, extra axioms enable provision of comparable characterizations of the equal allocation of nonseparable costs and the Shapley value on this class of games.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases

We introduce a theoretical framework that contributes to the understanding of noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs) epidemics: even if NCDs are noninfectious diseases, they may spread due to the social transmission of unhealthy activities such as unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and smoking. In particular, we study the intergenerational dimension of this mechanism. We find that, due to the social transmission of NCDs, agents choose lower health conditions and higher unhealthy activities than what is socially optimal. Taxes on unhealthy activities, that may subsidize health investments, can be used to restore the social optimum. Finally, our model is consistent with the existence of regional asymmetries regarding the prevalence of obesity and NCDs.     

Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance,Large-Scale Asset Purchases,and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment

We study the incidence and severity of periods with a binding effective lower bound on nominal interest rates and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies—forward guidance about the path of future interest rates, large-scale asset purchases, and spending-based fiscal stimulus—in mitigating the detrimental consequences of the lower bound for macro-economic stability. Based on the ECB's New Area-Wide Model of the euro area, our findings suggest that, if left unaddressed, the lower bound can cause substantial macro-economic distortions. In the near term, forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo these distortions. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases, and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, especially when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward-guidance policy via a signaling effect. In the long run, with an equilibrium real rate as low as zero, a combination of all three policies is needed to materially reduce the distortions.     

Consumption,Credit, and the Missing Young

There are more young adults today with either no credit history or insufficient credit history to be scored by one of the major credit bureaus than there were before the Great Recession—a reality that is likely an outcome of the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009–10. In regressions that include a rich set of controls, we show that measures of young adults missing a credit score in credit bureau data act as a drag on state-level consumption growth. We demonstrate that this effect is driven by young people's loss of access to credit since the legislation went into effect.     

Monetary Policy and Inequality

We analyze the distributional effects of monetary policy on income, wealth, and consumption. We use administrative household-level data covering the entire population in Denmark over the period 1987 to 2014 and exploit a long-standing currency peg as a source of exogenous variation in monetary policy. We find that gains from softer monetary policy in terms of income, wealth, and consumption are monotonically increasing in ex ante income. The distributional effects reflect systematic differences in exposure to the various channels of monetary policy, especially nonlabor channels (e.g., leverage and risky assets). Our estimates imply that softer monetary policy increases income inequality.     

Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms

Developments in U.S. house prices over the past decade mirror those of the 1996–2006 boom. Construction activity has, however, been weak. Using data for 254 U.S. metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. We find that housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas in which land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts. Consistent with the declining housing supply elasticities, we find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger effect on house prices during the past decade than during the previous boom. At the same time, building permits respond less.