The Dog That Did Not Bark: Insider Trading and Crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level, insiders' sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders' purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. A key feature of our theory is that rational uninformed investors may react more strongly to the absence of insider sales than to their presence (the “dog that did not bark” effect). We test our hypothesis against competing stories, such as insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution.     

Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation

In the last years, regulating agencies of many countries in the world have adopted VaR‐based risk regulation to control market risk of financial institutions. This paper investigates the consequences of such kind of regulation to social welfare and soundness of financial institutions through an equilibrium model. We show that the optimum level of regulation for each financial institution (the level that maximizes its utility) depends on its appetite for risk and that some of them can perform better in a regulated economy. In addition, another important result asserts that under certain market conditions the financial fragility of an institution can be greater in a regulated economy than in an unregulated one.     

The Cross‐Market Spillover of Economic Shocks through Multimarket Banks

This study investigates the mortgage lending of banks operating in multiple U.S. metropolitan areas during the housing market collapse of 2007–09. We show that multimarket banks reduced local portfolio lending in response to high overall mortgage delinquencies in their other markets, consistent with the view that local economic shocks can be transmitted to other regions through banks’ internal capital markets. This spillover was greatest when the bank lacked a branch presence and when the market was highly peripheral to the bank in terms of its total mortgage lending. These effects were not fully offset by securitization or other portfolio lenders.     

Public Input Competition under Stackelberg Equilibrium: A Note

This paper examines the Stackelberg equilibrium for public input competition and compares it with the noncooperative Nash equilibrium. Given two asymmetric regions, we show that under the Nash equilibrium the more productive region tends to spend more on public input, which results in this region attracting more capital than the less productive region. The comparison of the two equilibria reveals that the leader region obtains a first‐mover advantage under the Stackelberg setting. This suggests that if regions interact with each other sequentially as in the Stackelberg equilibrium, then the regional disparity that is due to the heterogeneity of productivity is likely to be mitigated or enlarged, depending on which region performs the leadership role in the competition process.