The Influence of Elections on the Accounting Choices of Governmental Entities

This paper investigates whether gubernatorial elections affect state governments’ accounting choices. We identify two accounts, the compensated absence liability account and the unfunded pension liability account, which provide incumbent gubernatorial candidates with flexibility for manipulation. We find that, in an election year, the liability associated with compensated absences and unfunded pension liabilities are both systematically lower. We also find that the variation in these employment‐related liabilities is correlated with proxies for the incumbent's incentives and ability to manipulate their accounting reports. Jointly, these results suggest that state governments manipulate accounting numbers to present a healthier financial picture in an election year.     

Do Rating Agencies Benefit from Providing Higher Ratings? Evidence from the Consequences of Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration

We ask whether credit rating agencies receive higher fees and gain greater market share when they provide more favorable ratings. To investigate this question, we use the 2010 rating scale recalibration by Moody's and Fitch, which increased ratings absent any underlying change in issuer credit quality. Consistent with prior research, we find that the recalibration allowed the clients of Moody's and Fitch to receive better ratings and lower yields. We add to this evidence by showing that the recalibration also led to larger fees and to increases in the market shares of Moody's and Fitch. These results are consistent with critics’ concerns about the effects of the issuer‐pay model on the credit ratings market.     

Behind the Scenes: The Corporate Governance Preferences of Institutional Investors

We survey institutional investors to better understand their role in the corporate governance of firms. Consistent with a number of theories, we document widespread behind‐the‐scenes intervention as well as governance‐motivated exit. These governance mechanisms are viewed as complementary devices, with intervention typically occurring prior to a potential exit. We further find that long‐term investors and investors that are less concerned about stock liquidity intervene more intensively. Finally, we find that most investors use proxy advisors and believe that the information provided by such advisors improves their own voting decisions.     

The Global Side of the Investment-Saving Puzzle

In this paper, we reexamine the long-standing and puzzling correlation between national saving and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long-run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of saving and investment. We also find that the global components in saving and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.     

CUSTOMER POWER,STRATEGIC INVESTMENT,AND THE FAILURE OF LEADING FIRMS

Why might firms be regarded as astutely managed at one point, yet subsequently lose their positions of industry leadership when faced with technological change? We present a model, grounded in a study of the world disk drive industry, that charts the process through which the demands of a firm's customers shape the allocation of resources in technological innovation—a model that links theories of resource dependence and resource allocation. We show that established firms led the industry in developing technologies of every sort—even radical ones—whenever the technologies addressed existing customers' needs. The same firms failed to develop simpler technologies that initially were only useful in emerging markets, because impetus coalesces behind, and resources are allocated to, programs targeting powerful customers. Projects targeted at technologies for which no customers yet exist languish for lack of impetus and resources. Because the rate of technical progress can exceed the performance demanded in a market, technologies which initially can only be used in emerging markets later can invade mainstream ones, carrying entrant firms to victory over established companies.     

WASTIN’ AWAY IN MARGARITAVILLE? NEW EVIDENCE ON THE ACADEMIC EFFECTS OF TEENAGE BINGE DRINKING

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study examines the relationship between teenage binge drinking and three measures of academic performance: grade point average, out-of-school suspensions, and unexcused absences from school. While ordinary least square estimates show that binge drinking is associated with diminished academic performance, individual fixed-effects estimates suggest that much of this relationship can be explained by unmeasured heterogeneity. After controlling for individual fixed effects and for changes in drug use, psychological well-being, and time preference, binge drinking has a much smaller and often statistically insignificant effect on school performance. ( JEL I10, I21, I18)     

The Early Careers Of Engineers And The Accumulation Of Skills In The Canadian Economy

In this paper we use world cycling records to study the pattern of technological development of the track bicycle. We find that there is a strong evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among cycling records which in turn provides indirect evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among technological innovations. Interestingly, the ‘contagiousness’ of records is not a salient characteristic of track and field competitions where, arguably, technology plays a smaller role.     

Does the digital divide matter? The role of information and communication technology in cross-country level and growth estimates

The bulk of information and communication technology is made of weightless, implementable, and infinitely reproducible knowledge products (such as software and databases). These products are transferred by telephone lines, accessed through internet hosts, and processed through personal computers. In this work, the coefficient of the labour augmenting factor in the aggregate production function has been estimated using proxies of variables crucially affecting the diffusion of (non-rival and almost non-excludable) knowledge products. This specification provides interesting answers to some of the open issues in the existing growth literature. The most recent information, though available for a limited period, shows that telephone lines, personal computers, mobile phones, and internet hosts significantly affect levels and growth of income per worker across countries. The result is robust to changes in sample composition, econometric specification, and estimation approach.     

Volatility forecasts and at-the-money implied volatility: a multi-component ARCH approach and its relation to market models

This article explores the relationships between several forecasts for the volatility built from multi-scale linear ARCH processes, and linear market models for the forward variance. This shows that the structures of the forecast equations are identical, but with different dependencies on the forecast horizon. The process equations for the forward variance are induced by the process equations for an ARCH model, but postulated in a market model. In the ARCH case, they are different from the usual diffusive type. The conceptual differences between both approaches and their implication for volatility forecasts are analysed. The volatility forecast is compared with the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between date t and t + ΔT), and the implied volatility (corresponding to an at-the-money option with expiry at t + ΔT). For the ARCH forecasts, the parameters are set a priori. An empirical analysis across multiple time horizons ΔT shows that a forecast provided by an I-GARCH(1) process (one time scale) does not capture correctly the dynamics of the realized volatility. An I-GARCH(2) process (two time scales, similar to GARCH(1,1)) is better, while a long-memory LM-ARCH process (multiple time scales) replicates correctly the dynamics of the implied and realized volatilities and delivers consistently good forecasts for the realized volatility.