Strategic planning of complex economic systems ∗

A major drawback of conventional models of the behavior of economic systems (and derived tools for policy intervention) is that the desire for tractability leads generally to a high degree of abstraction from reality. This article suggests an alternative, and arguably complementary, approach which engages specifically with economic complexity. The technique used is one of interactive spatial modelling over long time periods where the principle economic agents base decisions on incomplete heuristic information. For illustrative purposes the model has been calibrated on the basis of Senegalese data for 1981–91 and broad generic equations presented. The article argues that such a methodological approach holds out considerable advantages for strategic planning of sustainable economic systems. In particular it permits the direct engagement of noneconomic disciplines and client stakeholders in the planning process.     

Graduate Economics Programs in the United States

Sterrett and Barr comment on the results of a survey of graduate programs in economics in the United States and on the marked increase in the number of masters degrees granted by the responding institutions.     

“Social Security-Adequacy,Equity, and Progressiveness: A Review of Criteria Based on Experience in Canada and the United States,” Robert L. Brown and Jeffrey Ip,January 2000

Abstract

We consider an optimal dynamic control problem for an insurance company with opportunities of proportional reinsurance and investment. The company can purchase proportional reinsurance to reduce its risk level and invest its surplus in a financial market that has a Black-Scholes risky asset and a risk-free asset. When investing in the risk-free asset, three practical borrowing constraints are studied individually: (B1) the borrowing rate is higher than lending (saving) rate, (B2) the dollar amount borrowed is no more than K > 0, and (B3) the proportion of the borrowed amount to the surplus level is no more than k > 0. Under each of the constraints, the objective is to minimize the probability of ruin. Classical stochastic control theory is applied to solve the problem. Specifically, the minimal ruin probability functions are obtained in closed form by solving Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations, and their associated optimal reinsurance-investment policies are found by verification techniques.     

Running on the spot? A review of twenty years of research on the management of human resources in comparative and international perspective

Research using a comparative and international perspective on the management of human resources is examined, drawing on articles published in leading human resource management, management/organizational behaviour and related social science journals between 1977 and 1997. In total a little under 2 per cent of the articles under review focused on the management of human resources in a comparative and international perspective. The largest group of these articles was comparative in nature (44 per cent), followed by those with an international perspective (35 per cent). A smaller number adopted a combined approach (17 per cent) and a few were separately classified as foreign national studies (4 per cent). Over time, there has been some progress made in terms of the number of articles published and the scope of topics covered. However, many of the articles displayed similar shortcomings to those noted in earlier reviews of cross-national management/organization studies: in particular, an over-reliance on a small number of primarily Anglo-Saxon countries, a lack of a longitudinal perspective, a loose specification of culture, an ethnocentric bias and a frequent failure to explain observed differences and similarities.     

The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices

During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.     

INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE OF COMMON STOCKS IN RELATION TO INSIDER OWNERSHIP

In this paper, the authors empirically examine whether corporations with high degrees of insider ownership enjoy superior returns compared with firms with more diffuse ownership. In addition, the authors evaluate the effects of insider ownership on security returns in relations to the well-known effects of size and earnings yield (or price-earnings) ratios. Results indicate that, in addition to Basu's price-earnings effect, insider ownership is a new statistically significant variable that is associated with abnormal returns. This return anomaly might occur because the market pays an inadequate price for top managements' equity ownership, a firm-specific fundamental variable that has a theoretical foundation in agency theory.     

Cross-Hedging: Basis Risk and Choice of the Optimal Hedging Vehicle

The basis between a futures contract and its underlying instrument is an important measure of the cost of using the futures contract to hedge. In a cross-hedge, the relative size of the basis of alternative hedging vehicles often plays a decisive role in the selection of the optimal hedging vehicle. After adjusting hedge ratios for basis risk, a genuine risk-cost trade-off is seen in hedging 90-day certificates of deposit with either the Treasury bill contract or the Eurodollar contract. The Eurodollar contract was not uniformly superior as generally believed.