Analysis of efficient markets

A simple trading model is presented in which Bayes’ rule is used to aggregate traders’ forecasts about risky assets’ future returns. In this financial market, Bayes’ rule operates like an omnipotent market-maker performing functions that in 1776 Adam Smith attributed to an “invisible hand.” We have analyzed two distinct cases: in the first scenario, the traders’ forecast errors are uncorrelated, and in the second scenario, the traders’ forecast errors are correlated. The contribution of our paper is fourfold: first, we prove that the “efficient market” mean-return can be expressed as a complex linear combination of the traders’ forecasts. The weights depend on the forecast variances, as well as on the correlations among the traders’ forecasts. Second we show that the “efficient” variance is equal to the inverse of the sum of the traders’ precision errors, and is also related to the correlations among the traders’ forecast errors. Third, we prove that the efficient market return is the best linear minimum variance estimator (BLMVE) of the security’s mean return (in the sense that it minimizes the sum of the traders’ mean squared forecast errors). Thus, an efficient market aggregates traders’ heterogeneous information in an optimal way. Fourth, we prove that an efficient market produces a mean return (price) as a Blackwell sufficient (most informative) experiment among all possible aggregated expected return (price) forecasts.     

Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved

We report the results of a novel experiment that addresses two unresolved questions in the judgmental forecasting literature. First, how does combining the estimates of others differ from revising one’s own estimate based on the judgment of another? The experiment found that participants often ignored advice when revising an estimate but averaged estimates when combining. This was true despite receiving identical feedback about the accuracy of past judgments. Second, why do people consistently tend to overweight their own opinions at the expense of profitable advice? We compared two prominent explanations for this, differential access to reasons and egocentric beliefs, and found that neither adequately accounts for the overweighting of the self. Finally, echoing past research, we find that averaging opinions is often advantageous, but that choosing a single judge can perform well in certain predictable situations.     

Shareholder Value Maximisation,Stock Market and New Technology: Should the US Corporate Model be the Universal Standard? 1

In 1992 a blue‐ribbon group of US economists led by Michael Porter concluded that the US stock market‐based corporate model was misallocating resources and jeopardising US competitiveness. The faster growth of US economy since then and the supposed US lead in the spread of information technology has brought new legitimacy to the stock market and the corporate model, which is being hailed as the universal standard. Two main conclusions of the analysis presented here are: (a) there is no warrant for revising the blue‐ribbon group’s conclusion; and (b) even US corporations let alone developing country ones would be better off not having stock market valuation as a corporate goal.     

Social Conflict and Gradual Political Succession: An Illustrative Model*

This paper studies the evolution of political institutions in the face of conflict. We examine institutional reform in a class of pivotal mechanisms—institutions that behave as if the resulting policy were determined by a “pivotal” decision maker drawn from the potential population of citizens and who holds full policy‐making authority at the time. A rule‐of‐succession describes the process by which pivotal decision makers in period t + 1 are, themselves, chosen by pivotal decision makers in period t. Two sources of conflict—class conflict, arising from differences in wealth, and ideological conflict, arising from differences in preferences—are examined. In each case, we characterize the unique Markov‐perfect equilibrium of the associated dynamic political game, and show that public decision‐making authority evolves monotonically downward in wealth and upward in ideological predisposition toward the public good. We then examine rules‐of‐succession when ideology and wealth exhibit correlation.     

Small entrepreneurial ventures culture, change and the impact on HRM: A critical review

Effective management of people is increasingly recognized in the literature as a vital contributor to organizational performance and indeed survival. Nevertheless, studies of the dynamics of human resource management in small entrepreneurial ventures are relatively sparse. In this paper we draw upon a range of behaviourally-informed research publications to demonstrate that a culture of owner-influenced individualism and informality pervades these ventures, affecting prime human resource issues such as performance related practices, training and development, work–life balance and other critical dimensions of employee welfare. A preference for informality and an absence of strategy to inform owner–employee relations sits uneasily alongside growing political pressures toward codification of the management of employees in small entrepreneurial ventures. The response to these pressures may have significant implications both for relationships with employees and for organizational performance.     

Export Flexibility and Hedging

The paper considers a risk-averse international firm which sells its output in either the domestic or the foreign market. The firm possesses export flexibility, and so it can choose between the domestic and export markets after considering the foreign exchange rate. It is shown that a separation property holds if the proper hedging instrument is used: the firm's production depends on market prices and technology and does not depend on its attitude towards risk nor on its expectations. A full-hedge proposition is derived.     

Academicians' and practitioners' views on the content and importance of the advanced financial accounting course

This study reports the results of a survey of accounting academicians and accounting practitioners in public and private accounting. The purpose of the study was to examine the content and importance of the advanced financial accounting course. The results indicate that most schools require the course for accounting majors and the topics most often covered are consolidations and business combinations, partnership accounting, governmental/nonprofit accounting, and foreign currency accounting. Regarding the respondents' perceptions of what should be covered in this course, academicians indicated that significantly more time should be devoted to consolidations and business combinations while accounting practitioners indicated that a broader range of topics should be covered in the course. Also, academicians are more in agreement with the statement that the advanced financial accounting course is a good indicator of students' analytical skills. The results of this study should be of interest to accounting departments that are reviewing their curricula and individuals teaching advanced financial accounting.     

Effects of EU dairy policy reform for Dutch dairy farming: a primal approach using GMM estimation

This paper estimates a production function for milk using ageneralised method of moments estimator to avoid the endogeneityproblem. Using the first-order conditions for profit maximisation,the economic effects for individual Dutch dairy farms of the2003 EU dairy policy reform are analysed. With an expected milkprice decrease of 21 per cent, profit decreases on average by22 per cent. EU direct payments compensate for roughly 53 percent of this fall in profit. The profit reduction means that69 per cent of all small farms have negative income from farming,compared with 15 per cent in the initial situation.     

RELATIVE EFFICIENCIES OF NON-LIFE REINSURANCE MARKETING METHODS

Abstract: This paper extends the study of the relative cost efficiency of insurance delivery systems from the primary market to the market for non-life reinsurance services. As in the primary market for insurance services there are two predominant methods of marketing reinsurance services: reinsurers who rely on employees, termed direct writers, and those who rely on brokers.
An extensive literature relating to the primary market for non-life insurance consistently indicates that independent agency insurers have a cost disadvantage relative to exclusive agency insurers. This literature also suggests that independent agency insurers may supply superior service but a continuing erosion of the market share of independent agency insurers suggests that the perceived service differential is not valued sufficiently to offset the perceived cost differential.
The authors find evidence that, cet. par., broker supplied reinsurers operate with lower costs than direct reinsurers but we find less convincing evidence of a service differential favoring direct reinsurers. More significantly, we observe that the largest component of the traditional measure of the reinsurer's cost is the commission paid back to the primary insurer: the seemingly lower cost brokers provide a higher net cost product. Yet brokers thrive in the marketplace suggesting the existence of a product differentiated by service or quality. With the important caveat that measures of service are imperfect and data is limited, we find no evidence of a service differential.