Variations of Delphi

This paper describes a number of variations to refine the classical Delphi technique, which have been tested in two recent Delphis. A calculated median and interquartile range are introduced. The use of parallel questionnaires to explore many questions simultaneously is described. The use of probabilities in ratio form is suggested, as are general data transforms for median and interquartile range calculation. The idea of ranking the timing of events is described, and when calculations of the different timescales people use are employed, it is shown that part of the convergence in succeeding rounds arises from changes in people's timescales. Correlation between events is used to identify events that interact and hence, Cross Impact Analysis is required.     

University of Texas Roundtable on Recent Trends in U.S. Venture Capital

At a recent private equity conference hosted by the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas in Austin, four venture capitalists representing the East and West Coasts provided testimony to the spread of the VC industry far beyond Silicon Valley to places like New York, London, and Berlin—as well as Austin itself. The result, in the words of one panelist, has been “a shift from Silicon Valley as the epicenter of so much innovation and growth to something more like a globally distributed network of capital, talent, and opportunity.” Along with this geographic expansion of the industry, perhaps the most notable change is the tendency of today's VCs to delay the IPOs of their portfolio companies and, by keeping them private longer, capture more of their growth in value. Whereas 20 years ago 90% or more of the value appreciation came after the IPO of a highly successful company (think about Micro‐Soft or Amazon.com ), a much larger share of the overall value creation now appears to be taking place before the IPO, thanks to the growing use of a funding vehicle known as private initial public offerings, or PIPOs. The use of PIPOs has enabled VC‐backed companies to attract large amounts of capital from large institutional investors like Fidelity—which in the past would not have invested in the company until the IPO—while retaining what the panelists view as significant advantages of private ownership and governance.     

Megaquarry versus decentralized mineral production: network analysis of cement production in the Great Lakes region,USA

The geography of mineral resources and human settlement influences the production–consumption cycle of cement and other mined construction materials, and affects the energy, cost and environmental burden associated with these materials. Although mines that supply most construction products have traditionally been located near major points of consumption, population pressures have raised the possibility that these small, widely scattered operations might be replaced by large, megaquarry operations. This study uses network analysis to compare transportation-related energy and cost for cement production from highly centralized facilities, or megaquarries, to that from smaller production facilities dispersed throughout the Great Lakes region of the United States. Results show that a transition to megaquarries can increase transport-related energy and associated environmental impacts by almost 50%. This suggests that decisions involving the location of mining operations for construction products are best made on a regional rather than local basis.     

Local financial development and growth

Using unique, district-level, economic growth data, I investigate the connection between banking sector development, human capital, and economic growth in Indian districts. Disaggregate data helps avoid many of the omitted variable problems that plague similar cross-country studies. The data show districts to be financially constrained by the lack of local banking sector development, and the relationship may be non-linear. For districts in the sample, moving from the 75th percentile of credit/net domestic product to the 25th percentile implies an average loss of 4% in growth over the 1990s decade. The data also shows that human capital deepening can reduce the financial constraint. In a district at the 25th literacy percentile, the implied growth loss due to a constrained banking sector is twice as large as in a district at the 75th literacy percentile. The results are robust to the inclusion of various controls and changes in specification.