A Test of Technical Analysis: Matching Time Displaced Generalized Patterns

We use a least squares metric to match the return pattern of a target stock with that of an out‐of‐sample‐twin. The twin with the smallest metric is found by a comprehensive period‐by‐period search of stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices data set extending back to 1926. If technical analysis has value, targets of twins producing the highest returns in the twin postperiod should also have the highest performance in the target postperiod. Using a randomly selected sample of 66,000 return patterns, we find higher means for targets corresponding to the highest returning twin quintile. We also use regressions to risk adjust target returns and find that twin returns in the postmatch period significantly predict risk‐adjusted target returns.     

Labor unions and tax aggressiveness

We examine the impact of unionization on firms' tax aggressiveness. We find a negative association between firms' tax aggressiveness and union power and a decrease in tax aggressiveness after labor union election wins. This relation is consistent with labor unions influencing managers' in one, or both, of two ways: (1) constraining managers' ability to invest in tax aggressiveness through increased monitoring; or (2) decreasing returns to tax aggressiveness that arise from unions' rent seeking behavior. We also find preliminary evidence that the market expects these reductions around union elections and discounts firms that likely add shareholder value via aggressive tax strategies.     

Boards,CEO entrenchment,and the cost of capital

Existing research on chief executive officer (CEO) turnover focuses on CEO ability. This paper argues that board ability is also important. Corporate boards are reluctant to replace CEOs, as this makes financing expensive by sending a negative signal about board ability. Entrenchment in this model does not result from CEO power, or from agency problems. Entrenchment is mitigated when there are more assets-in-place relative to investment opportunities. The paper also compares public and private equity. Private ownership eliminates CEO entrenchment, but market signals improve investment decisions. Finally, the model implies that board choice in publicly listed firms will be conservative.     

Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract

This study applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the commodity lead traded on the LME. The effects of cointegration on both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests is also examined. When cointegration is not modelled, evidence is found of both linear and nonlinear causality between cash prices and analysed predictor variables. However, after controlling for cointegration, evidence of significant nonlinear causality is no longer found. These results contribute to the empirical literature on commodity price forecasting by highlighting the relationship between cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality. The importance of interest rate and inventory as well as futures price in forecasting cash prices is also illustrated. Failure to detect significant nonlinearity after controlling for cointegration may also go some way to explaining the reason for the disappointing forecasting performances of many nonlinear models in the general finance literature. It may be that the variables are correct, but the functional form is overly complex and a standard VAR or VECM may often apply.     

Assessing the impact of economic liberalization across countries: a comparison of dairy industry efficiency in Canada and the USA

This paper examines and compares the technical efficiency measures of Ontario and New York dairy producers for the period 1992 to 1998. A nonparametric stochastic frontier model is introduced to estimate technical efficiency. The backfitting algorithm of Breiman and Friedman is used to estimate the frontier. Empirical results indicate that during the period of study, New York dairy farmers produced milk more efficiently than Ontario dairy producers, but the magnitude of the difference was small. The estimated mean technical efficiency for the former group is 0.602 as compared to 0.532 for the latter. The results also indicated that over time, dairy farms in both regions improved their level of technical efficiency. Furthermore, no correlation was found between farm size and estimated technical efficiency.     

Does more medical care improve population health? New evidence for an old controversy

This article investigates the aggregate relationship between medical care and health for the US population. I use annual state level panel data for the period 1983 to 2000 to estimate static and dynamic health production function models. I find no compelling evidence that greater aggregate utilization of medical care from application of existing technology improves population health by lowering mortality in the short run or long run. My results suggest that development of new medical technologies that diffuse rapidly throughout the nation and at different rates across states may well explain much of the decline in the age-adjusted death rate over the past several decades, as well as persistent differences in mortality across geographic regions. Overall, my findings suggest that the US may be experiencing ‘flat of the curve medicine’ with future improvements in mortality from medical care coming from new and better technologies rather than greater intensity of services.     

The long memory model of political support: some further results

This article extends the results of Byers et al. (1997 Byers, JD, Davidson, JEHD and Peel, DA. 1997. Modelling political popularity: an analysis of long range dependence in opinion poll series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 160: 471–90. Series A [Google Scholar]) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,?d,?0) model, though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s had no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.     

Expert opinion and cuisine reputation in the market for restaurant meals

As food is an experience good, the market for restaurant meals is a market where the cost of acquiring information regarding quality is relatively high. In such markets consumers often turn to reputation measures to guide purchase decisions. As Australia does not have a longstanding cuisine style of its own, and given Australia has been open to substantial immigration inflows since federation, it represents an especially appropriate market to study regarding the impact of individual restaurant reputation and collective cuisine reputation on meal prices. The following study uses the hedonic price approach to investigate the implicit price of individual reputation indicators, cuisine type reputation indicators and other objective indicators in the market for restaurant meals. The empirical findings presented suggest that both individual restaurant reputation and cuisine type reputation are important. Other important factors are shown to include the quality of the restaurant wine list, the availability of private dining rooms, and whether or not there is an outdoor dining option.     

Who pays the high health costs of older workers? Evidence from prostate cancer screening mandates

Between 1992 and 2009, 30 US states adopted laws mandating that health insurance plans cover screenings for prostate cancer. Because prostate cancer screenings are used almost exclusively by men over age 50, these mandates raise the cost of insuring older men relative to other groups. This article uses a triple-difference empirical strategy to take advantage of this quasi-random natural experiment in raising the cost of employing older workers. Using Integrated Public Use Microdata Series data from the March Supplement of the Current Population Survey, I find that the increased cost of insuring older workers results in their receiving 2.8% lower hourly wages, being 2% less likely to be employed and being 0.7% less likely to have employer-sponsored health insurance.