The use of macroeconomic models in economic policy making: The Norwegian experience

Planning in Norway has a long tradition. The use of models is an integral part of short- and medium-term economic policy administration. A large-scale input-output model, MODIS IV, is used as the short- and medium-term forecasting and planning model. The use of the model secures consistency when analysing the economy. The model is very open in the sense that important interrelations in the economy are left out. The model contains only ‘good’ relations in the Leif Johansen sense of the word. Smaller aggregate and more closed versions of the model are used for analysing policy alternatives. These models contain both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ relations. The use of macroeconomic models is an important aid for proposals regarding economic policy in the Ministry of Finance. Because the whole ministry (with expert help from other ministries) takes an active part in the model work, MODIS IV serves as the centralizing mechanism. It helps to make economists from many ministries go around the same centre, speak the same ‘language’ and organize all relevant information and judgements in a consistent way. Experience shows that ‘numbers discipline’ and force the different arguments on to a higher level of precision.     

Ethics and Politics to the Rescue of Neoclassical Economics?

Why is it so difficult to reform the economies of Eastern Europe? Jan Winiecki, of the Institute of Labour Economics in Warsaw, argues that the decline of moral standards under communism means that reform can only be brought about by people untainted by the old regime.     

The Temporary Staffing Industry and Workforce Development: Assessing a System of Local Experiments

Local workforce authorities in liberal market states are increasingly charged with mitigating long-term unemployment rooted in macroeconomic forces beyond their immediate control. In the US, and now elsewhere, these authorities have begun to establish partnerships with the temporary staffing industry as a means of extending their limited resources and improving job placement outcomes. Such partnerships are especially prominent in the US, where the Department of Labor has sanctioned policy experiments between local workforce authorities and the temporary staffing industry. In order to appraise these experiments, we present case-study evaluations of three diverse and highly touted employment schemes undertaken by American workforce authorities in conjunction with temporary staffing agencies. We find that under even the most favourable circumstances, the modest mechanisms of these programmes are unable to produce appreciable impacts within local labour markets.     

The evolution and performance of biotechnology regional systems of innovation

The paper maintains that biotechnology regions develop as complexsystems: they start with star scientists in research universities,generating knowledge spillovers, then move progressively towardsregional technology markets. In the process they attract venturecapital (or modify the behaviour of existing venture capitalfirms with the addition of biotechnology portfolios). The routinesof universities are also modified with the addition of intellectualproperty and technology transfer offices intervening as sellersin the newly created knowledge markets. The paper also considerswhether companies located in regional agglomerations grow fasterthan isolated ones, and whether companies spun-off from universitieshave a better performance than start-ups. The study is basedon about 90 Canadian-based publicly quoted biotechnology companies.     

To Be or Not Be …'Too Late': The Case of the Belgian Semi-annual Earnings Announcements

In this study, we demonstrate that the average reporting lag of Belgian interim reports is large but has decreased slightly over the years 1991–1998. Contrary to US findings, we show that the disclosure of interim reports containing bad (good) news is not systematically delayed (speeded up). Interim reports are value relevant since good (bad) news, according to a naïve earnings expectations model, induces positive (negative) abnormal returns. The 'short term' timeliness of the information disclosure, however, seems not to matter at all.     

Ethical Behaviour and Securities Trading

"Economic man does not ask himself ethical questions". Yet securities trading inevitably raises many ethical issues, and ethical behaviour may be restricting and costly. Drawing on his economics background and his executive experience in the insurance and pension investment industry, as well as supervisory positions on the European Option Exchange, Dr Goslings analyses the securities markets and their structure, and explores their moral strengths and weaknesses in The Netherlands and elsewhere, before offering some practical recommendations. He has held part time professorships at Erasmus University and Maastricht University teaching finance and is currently preparing a new course on risk and insurance. He is also active as an independent consultant at Wentholtweg 26, 7214 EG Epse, The Netherlands.