The process of consultation: responding to challenge

China could be a challenging destination for Western business expatriates. However, their extent of adjustment to life and work could be contingent on the size of the location of their assignment. Maybe Westerners adjust more easily to large cities with their more Western-style way of life and consumption patterns than to less Westernized small towns and villages. To examine this proposition, a mail survey was directed at Western business expatriates assigned to locations of varying size in China. As expected, results showed that the size of the location was positively associated with adjustment to the general non-work environment as well as with work adjustment. Surprisingly, there was no relationship between the size of the location and adjustment to interacting with host nationals, presumably due to language problems. The distinct implications of these findings are discussed in detail.     

Technology assessment network building: The International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions

With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.     

Asset price bubbles in Arrow-Debreu and sequential equilibrium

Summary. Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium in an infinite-time economy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuation of assets. In contrast, the known examples of price bubbles in a sequential equilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countable additivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation of assets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature of price bubbles in light of this theory. We define a payoff pricing operator that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimum cost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that the payoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set of positive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, provided that there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the known examples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation is linear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble means that the dividends of an asset can be purchased in sequential markets at a cost lower than the asset's price. We present further examples of equilibrium price bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear, or linear but not countably additive.     

Efficient rank tests for semiparametric competing risk models

We consider a semiparametric competing risk model given by k independent survival times. The paper offers an asymptotic treatment of tests for the semiparametric null hypothesis of equality of the underlying risks. It turns out that modified rank tests are asymptotically efficient for certain semiparametric submodels, where the baseline hazard is a nuisance parameter. In addition, the asymptotic relative efficiency of the present tests is derived. A comparison of asymptotic power functions can then be used to classify various tests proposed earlier in the literature. For instance a chi-square type test is efficient for proportional hazards. Data driven tests of likelihood ratio type are proposed for cones of alternatives. We will consider certain stochastically increasing alternatives as a special example. The paper shows how the concept of local asymptotic normality of Le Cam works for hazard oriented models.     

Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?

It is largely recognised that fiscal policy will have largerresponsibilities for cyclicalstabilisation in EMU given the loss of the monetary instrument.At the same time, theEMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely onautomatic fiscal stabilisers,rather than active policies in cushioning the business cycle.We show that automaticstabilisers are relatively powerful in the event of shocksto private consumption, but lessso in the case of shocks to private investment and exports.In the case of supply sideshocks, the automatic stabilisers are largely ineffective,but this may actually be a goodthing to the extent that supply-side disturbances call forstructural adjustment rather thancyclical stabilisation.     

Vertical integration as a remedy for imbalances in the ‘Porterian’ value system. The Dutch financial securities industry at the beginning of the 20th century

The way of accounting for vertical integration, of this paper is based on the ‘Porterian’ value system and focuses on the relation between the creation and appropriation of value. The essence of a value system is that at each stage in the system value is created and added to the value created at previous stages. We propose that firms which are unable to appropriate the value they create at the stage they currently inhabit, would find it advantageous to integrate vertically towards stages offering a more attractive relation between value appropriation and value creation. This argument will be illustrated here by the case of a large Dutch bank that integrated vertically towards securities trading.     

Concept‐Based Bayesian Model Averaging and Growth Empirics

In specifying a regression equation, we need to specify which regressors to include, but also how these regressors are measured. This gives rise to two levels of uncertainty: concepts (level 1) and measurements within each concept (level 2). In this paper we propose a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address these uncertainties. We examine the effects of different growth determinants taking explicit account of the measurement problem in the growth regressions. We find that estimates produced by HWALS provide intuitive and robust explanations. We also consider approximation techniques which are useful when the number of variables is large or when computing time is limited.     

Extending the SAM with Social and Environmental Indicators: An Application to Bolivia

Extending economic accounts with sets of social and environmental indicators is a first step towards a more integrated analysis of aspects of sustainability problems. In this article, therefore, a proposal is made to nest social and environmental indicators into an existing economic accounting framework. The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is taken as a basis, because of its flexibility regarding extensions with non-monetary data addressing social and environmental concerns. The main thrust of the paper is methodological. From the discussion of methodological issues and the application to the SAM for Bolivia for the year 1989, it is concluded that it is, in principle, feasible and relatively simple to extend the SAM with the two sets of indicators. However, additional data will have to be collected to be able to address, more adequately, the problems of sustainability.     

Consequences of competitive bidding in project-based production

This paper discusses the consequences competitive bidding have on lead time in project-based production, such as construction. Earlier studies argued that competitive bidding may significantly increase resource consumption and generate waste in the delivery process, which this paper supports. However, the relation between competitive bidding and lead time has been less discussed. Lead time reduction has long been considered a fundamental objective for overall business improvement. An objective of our study was to understand what contributes to long lead times. The reported findings are from a 4-year study on the delivery process of power distribution equipment, a type of engineered-to-order (ETO) product. The paper concludes by suggesting procurement practices that reduce lead times for ETO products.