Why Sweden's pension reform was able to be successfully implemented

Governments that do not reform pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems will eventually face a pension crisis. In a democracy, reforms require majority support. The problem is that pension reform requires today's generation to bear the burden to avoid burdening tomorrow's generation. Sweden recently passed pension legislation that specifies a gradual transition from a public defined-benefit plan to a defined contribution plan. Why was Sweden successful in reforming its pension system? We find that a political economy perspective helps to answer this question: there are more winners who would vote in favour of the reform than non-winners who would vote against it. When comparing the net effect (present value of expected benefits minus present value of remaining contributions) of the new and old systems, contributions of the working generation (age < 53) are reduced by more than their expected benefits.     

Pricing Asian options in a semimartingale model

In this paper we studyy arithmetic Asian options when the underlying stock is driven by special semimartingale processes. We show that the inherently path dependent problem of pricing Asian options can be transformed into a problem without path dependence in the payoff function. We also show that the price is driven by a process with independent increments, Levy processes being a special case. This approach applies for both discretely or continuously options.     

How Today's Consumers Perceive Tomorrow's Smart Products*

This paper investigates consumer responses to new smart products. Due to the application of information technology, smart products are able to collect, process, and produce information and can be described as “thinking” for themselves. In this study, 184 consumers respond to smart products that are characterized by two different combinations of smartness dimensions. One group of products shows the smartness dimensions of autonomy, adaptability, and reactivity. Another group of smart products are multifunctional and able to cooperate with other products. Consumer responses to these smart products are measured in terms of the innovation attributes of relative advantage, compatibility, observability, complexity, and perceived risk. The study shows that products with higher levels of smartness are perceived to have both advantages and disadvantages. Higher levels of product smartness are mainly associated with higher levels of observability and perceived risk. The effects of product smartness on relative advantage, compatibility, and complexity vary across product smartness dimensions and across product categories. For example, higher levels of product autonomy are perceived as increasingly advantageous whereas a high level of multifunctionality is perceived disadvantageous. The paper discusses the advantages and pitfalls for each of the five product smartness dimensions and their implications for new product development and concludes with a discussion of the limitations of the study and suggestions for further research.     

Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?

It is largely recognised that fiscal policy will have largerresponsibilities for cyclicalstabilisation in EMU given the loss of the monetary instrument.At the same time, theEMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely onautomatic fiscal stabilisers,rather than active policies in cushioning the business cycle.We show that automaticstabilisers are relatively powerful in the event of shocksto private consumption, but lessso in the case of shocks to private investment and exports.In the case of supply sideshocks, the automatic stabilisers are largely ineffective,but this may actually be a goodthing to the extent that supply-side disturbances call forstructural adjustment rather thancyclical stabilisation.     

Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii) long‐range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy, relative to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long‐maturity interest rates and for long‐horizon forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continuity and Discontinuity in Accounting Technology in Danish State Institutions

The development of accounting technology in the Danish state sector is characterised by episodes of disruption and the longevity of certain principles that define accounting's accountability as involved in producing the state as a unit, as providing a continuous concern for productivity, and as providing the means by which a parliamentary democracy may work. The episodes of disruption may often repair on this trinity of issues. The recent transformations are radical as they introduce a new form of management via individualised 'accounting-cultured' institutions and managers. They do so via a heightened emphasis on a core technology already in place supplemented by a new mode of output orientation rather than input orientation via a Company Accounts . In addition to reporting on spending, this set of accounts introduced a series of non-financial measures such as productivity, quality, and customer satisfaction.     

Book production and the onset of modern economic growth

We provide a new data set on per capita book production as a proxy for advanced literacy skills, and assess this relative to other measures. While literacy proxies very basic skills, book production per capita is an indicator for more advanced capabilities. Growth theory suggests that human capital formation plays a significant role in creating the ‘wealth of nations.’ This study tests whether human capital formation has an impact on early-modern growth disparities. In contrast to some previous studies which denied the role of human capital as a crucial determinant of long-term growth, we confirm its importance.