Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyse the determinants and the dynamics of current account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood‐based inference of these models requires high‐dimensional integration for which we use efficient importance sampling. Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country‐specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.     

Security of Property Rights for Whom?

Property insecurity of non-elites can be compatible with or even enhance economic growth, but it also encourages conflict—which can undermine long-term growth and economic development. Using a new set of indicators which measure the property insecurity of marginalized ethno-cultural minority groups, this article demonstrates that the severity of property insecurity for the worst-off group in a country is strongly associated with the onset of armed conflict, and—once civil war is controlled for—property insecurity for marginalized minorities corresponds with higher growth rates. Economic growth can occur when the property rights of elites are secure but marginalized minorities face a high risk of expropriation, as land may be reallocated into the hands of investors with skills and access to capital. However, the potentially growth-enhancing effect of forced displacement and resettlement is reduced, because the property insecurity of minorities also increases the likelihood of armed conflict.     

A volatility smile-based uncertainty index

Annals of Finance - We propose a new uncertainty index based on the discrepancy of the smile of FX options. We show that our index spikes near turbulent periods, forecasts economic activity and its...     

Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America

Exchange rates forecasting performance is tested by a model which incorporates endogenous monetary policy through a Taylor rule reaction function. Other usual monetary and equilibrium empirical exchange rate models are also evaluated for comparison purposes. Predictability is tested by comparing the models to a benchmark random walk specification. We contribute to the recent literature in many ways. First, we include models of forward-looking endogenous monetary policy to the exchange rate forecasting exercise, the Taylor model. Second, our data, set across countries, is uniform in terms of economies adopting both inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate. Third, our study sheds light on exchange rate determinants for emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico. Our results show strong predictability evidence for the Taylor model and indicate that assuming models of endogenous monetary policy and the present value of expected fundamentals is a rewarding strategy to model exchange rate determination.     

面授和在线教学中的师生行为：应对复杂概念（上）

本研究的目的是对在线和面授学习环境下教师与学生交互的质量和数量进行比较。研究选择一门护理理论硕士课程,由同一教授分别采用两种方式进行教学。运用知识的社会建构分析模型（Gunawar-dena,Lowe and Anderson,1997）,对面授课堂的记录和在线的帖子进行分析,以确定教师的行为类别,评定学生回应的级别。教师在每堂课上的行为都被分类,发生的次数也进行了统计。虽然教师介入的次数不同,但在两种学习环境下都表现出了相似的推动行为。学生参与情况用模型的五个阶段进行了分析,结果显示,大多数学生的交互行为处在模型的第一阶段,每种学习环境下都有一些学生达到知识建构的更高阶段,说明两种学习方式都是成功的,能够掌握复杂、抽象的概念。     

Do shareholder protection and creditor rights have distinct effects on the association between debt maturity and ownership structure?

This study examines the effects of the firm's ownership concentration and its institutional environment on corporate debt maturity choices. As ownership concentration and debt maturity are alternative governance mechanisms, we theorize and investigate whether their association is influenced by country-level governance factors that enhance outside monitoring by minority shareholders and debtholders. Our investigation is based on a dataset of 50,599 firm-year observations from 38 countries. We use a propensity-score matching approach and find that the effect of ownership concentration on debt maturity is conditional to country-level governance attributes. Ownership concentration has a negative effect on debt maturity in countries where both shareholder protection and creditor rights are weak. Ownership concentration, however, tends to lengthen debt maturity as protection increases, and this positive effect on the length of debt maturity is stronger in countries enhancing protection towards debtholders (instead of shareholders). We also explore other characteristics of ownership structure, such as the identity and presence of controlling shareholders. These results corroborate the view that entrenched shareholders may use debt maturity opportunistically. Our study provides new insights into the interplay between firm- and country-level governance mechanisms and a deeper understanding of cross-country differences in the association between ownership structure and debt financing.     

Nature of transfers,income tax function and empirical estimation of elasticity of taxable income for Brazil

This article aims to estimate the elasticity of taxable income (ETI), taking into account the nature of transfers and their use as a redistribution package (involving cash and in-kind transfers) to households in Brazil. Our contributions are twofold. First, we provide a simple model with balanced-budget government that reveals the role played by cash and in-kind transfers on the labour supply (and income tax revenues thereof). Next, in order to estimate ETI in the presence of cash and in-kind transfers, Brazilian population surveys (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios [PNAD]) are used to explore a limited tax reform that was implemented between 1997 and 1998. This reform only affected the higher income tax bracket. Our findings suggest that in-kind (cash) transfers are positively (negatively) associated with reported taxable income and precise estimation of ETI requires estimates of both types of transfers. Last, we estimate the ETI for Brazil in the range from 0.4 to 1.3 not different from those that maximize income tax revenues.     

Do central bank foreign exchange interventions affect market expectations?

The aim of this article is to study the impact of the Brazilian central bank swap interventions on the FX market from 2006 to 2013. In this period, these nontraditional interventions were the main FX instrument of the Brazilian Government. Since the central bank operates through a sequence of daily interventions in most of the period, we employ the event study method, which is appropriate to investigate cumulative impact of intervention episodes. We analyse the effects on the risk neutral distribution of BRL-USD exchange rate, which incorporates economic valuation besides the likelihoods. We investigate both changes in level and in the dynamics of the moments. Our tests indicate that interventions have little effects on the exchange rate distribution. We only find evidences of some impact on the dynamics of the mean, volatility and skewness over long horizons when the central bank takes short positions on the exchange rate.     

Disabled travel: not easy,but doable

Research on disabled tourists is still in its infancy and, at its present stage, the issue of accessibility in particular sets the research agenda. However, as with all tourists, disabled tourists' enactment of barriers as well as benefits pertaining to holidays depends on the individual's former experiences, travel career and engagement in other leisure activities. Accordingly, this paper accounts for the findings of a series of qualitative interviews with mobility-disabled tourists, the purpose of which was to engage disabled tourists in conversations based on their reflective enactment of their own touristic endeavour. The study revealed (1) that various associations for disabled people play crucial roles in determining both whether and how an individual takes on the role of tourist; (2) that disabled tourists especially go on vacation in order to be freed from the role of ‘objects of care’; (3) that tourism relates to the ends of overcoming self-doubt, redefining oneself and building self-confidence; and (4) that vacation decision-making is far more complex for the disabled tourist than for other tourists; albeit complexity is reduced as the disabled tourist becomes more experienced.     

Welfare-Induced Migration at State Borders: New Evidence from Micro-Data

This paper extends and synthesizes the various approaches used in the recent welfare migration literature to both offer the most comprehensive set of tests to date for welfare migration and to also determine the relative importance of short-distance moves in welfare migration flows. The current study follows on the finding of McKinnish (2005) of welfare migration effects obtained by comparing welfare participation at state borders to state interiors. This identification strategy is extended to micro-data from the 1980 and 1990 Decennial Censuses and combined with the demographic comparisons used elsewhere in the welfare migration literature. The signs and patterns of the estimates are consistent with the presence of welfare migration effects, and the magnitudes of the estimates are consistent with the importance of short-distance moves in welfare-induced migration flows, but most of the estimates are not statistically significant.