EAST ASIAN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: DO THEY PROMOTE GLOBAL FREE TRADE?

Abstract.  We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non-discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self-interest.     

基于东北亚经济合作的战略伙伴关系

文章在分析了东北亚经济合作的必要性的基础上,探讨了作为主要经济合作手段 的东北亚各国产学研机构间的战略伙伴关系,并提出了发展东北亚经济共同体的具体模式。     

清中期广西的客民及土客械斗

清中期,由于广东与广西之间的不平等商品交换和广东人口大量地向广西迁移,引起了广西社会矛盾的深化。虽然广东的移民(客民)为广西经济的开发作出了贡献,但人口增加与耕地不足的矛盾出现了,其表现形式之一就是客民与土著(包括少数民族)间的械斗。由于恶劣的社会经济条件,造成了大部分客民与天地会、‘海贼’结为一伙,进行了反地方官、反清的活动。自雍正年间开始,广东嘉应州的部分客家不断移居广西东南地区,与土著之间在土地、水利、风水、女人等问题上产生纠纷,导致客民和土著间的械斗。这是广西社会秩序动乱的最基本的因素,也是太平天国运动发展的重要转机。     

Fiscal federalism,jurisdictional competition,and the size of government

Fiscal federalism is commonly held to reduce the size of government, but how does it do so: through shrinking the welfare state, cutting government consumption, or reducing public investment? This paper examines tax competition under fiscal federalism through the lens of imperfect competition theory, derives new empirical implications from different theories of fiscal federalism, and tests those hypotheses with new variables and data. Cross-national statistical results show that jurisdictional competition under fiscal federalism is associated with reductions in the administrative expense of government but not the size of the welfare state. Moreover, the apparent impact of fiscal federalism with a high degree of jurisdictional competition is larger than that estimated in previous research. Once the models have been appropriately specified, the United States is no longer an outlier among high-income democracies on either government consumption or social spending. Close examination of the data reveals that some fiscally federal systems better approximate a “market-preserving model” and others a “capital-privileging” or “state-corroding” model.     

Real-world utilization of molecular diagnostic testing and matched drug therapies in the treatment of metastatic cancers

Aims: To assess the frequency of biopsies and molecular diagnostic testing (human DNA/RNA analysis), anti-cancer drug use (genomically-matched targeted therapy [GMTT], unmatched targeted therapy [UTT], endocrine therapy [ET], and chemotherapy [CT]), and medical service costs among adults with metastatic cancer.

Methods: Adults diagnosed with metastatic breast, non-small cell lung (NSCLC), colorectal, head and neck, ovarian, and uterine cancer (2010Q1–2015Q1) were identified in the OptumHealth Care Solutions claims database and followed from first metastatic diagnosis for ≥1 month and until the end of data availability. Utilization was assessed for each cancer cohort (all and patients aged ≥65 years); per-patient-per-month (PPPM) medical service costs were assessed for all patients. Testing frequency estimates were applied to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data to estimate the number of untested patients (2010–2014).

Results: Patients with metastatic cancer (n?=?8,193; breast [n?=?3,414], NSCLC [n?=?2,231], colorectal [n?=?1,611], head and neck [n?=?511], ovarian [n?=?275], and uterine [n?=?151]) were 63 years old (mean), with 11.1–22.2 months of observation. Biopsy and molecular diagnostic testing frequencies ranged from 7% (uterine) to 73% (ovarian), and from 34% (head and neck) to 52% (breast), respectively. Few were treated with GMTT (breast, 11%; NSCLC, 9%; colorectal, 6%). Treatment with UTT ranged from 0.7% (uterine) to 21% (colorectal). Biopsy, diagnostic testing, and anti-cancer drug therapy were less frequent for those ≥65 years. Medical service costs (PPPM, mean) ranged from $6,618 (head and neck) to $9,940 (ovarian). The estimated number of untested new patients with metastatic cancer was 636,369 (all) and 341,397 (≥65).

Limitations: In addition to the limitations of claims analyses, diagnostic testing frequency may be under-estimated if patients underwent testing prior to study inclusion.

Conclusions: The low frequency of molecular diagnostic testing suggests there are opportunities to better inform management of patients with advanced cancer, particularly decisions to treat with GMTT.     

Environmental evaluation of agri-environment schemes using participatory approaches: Experiences of testing the Agri-Environmental Footprint Index

The Agri-Environment Footprint Index (AFI) has been developed as a generic methodology to assess changes in the overall environmental impacts from agriculture at the farm level and to assist in the evaluation of European agri-environmental schemes (AES). The methodology is based on multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and involves stakeholder participation to provide a locally customised evaluation based on weighted environmental indicators. The methodology was subjected to a feasibility assessment in a series of case studies across the EU. The AFI approach was able to measure significant differences in environmental status between farms that participated in an AES and non-participants. Wider environmental concerns, beyond the scheme objectives, were also considered in some case studies and the benefits for identification of unintentional (and often beneficial) impacts of AESs are presented. The participatory approach to AES evaluation proved efficient in different environments and administrative contexts. The approach proved to be appropriate for environmental evaluation of complex agri-environment systems and can complement any evaluation conducted under the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. The applicability of the AFI in routine monitoring of AES impacts and in providing feedback to improve policy design is discussed.     

Renminbi Internationalization： Progress, Prospect and Comparison

Using principal component analyses, this paper constructs two internationalization indices for the renminbi (RMB) and 32 other major currencies. We find that the RMB's currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) is still low, and far behind the 4 most important international currencies. In 2009, it was ranked 18th among all important international currencies. However, in terms of the currency internationalization prospect index (CIPI), the RMB has remained the world's fifth highest since 2006. Although it is still far behind the US dollar and the euro, surpassing the ranking of the yen and the pound is possible in the near future. The dramatic difference in the ranking between the CIDI and the CIPI is a result of China's tight capital account control, the usage continuity of international currency due to network externalities, and the narrow foreign exchange and imperfect financial markets. Hence, to a large degree, the RMB's potential as an international currency depends on China's capital account liberalization.     

Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.     

Resource abundance and economic growth in China

This paper revisits the resource curse phenomenon in China and differs from the previous studies in four respects: (i) City-level data is used; (ii) A spatial variable is constructed to estimate the diffusion effect of natural resources among cities in the same province; (iii) The impact of resource abundance on economic development is investigated not only at the city level but also at the prefectural level in China; (iv) We use a functional coefficient regression model to deal with city-specific heterogeneity and, at the same time, analyze the transmission mechanism of the resource curse phenomenon. Our empirical results show that there is no significant evidence to support the existence of a resource curse phenomenon in China. On the other hand, we find that the degree of natural resource abundance in a city has a positive diffusion effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities within the same province at the city level, but not at prefectural levels. We attribute this to the urban bias policy.