The fed model: The bad,the worse,and the ugly

The negative relationship between stock market P/E ratios and government bond yields seems to have become conventional wisdom among practitioners. However, limited empirical evidence and a misleading suggestion that the model originated in the Fed are used to support the model's plausibility. This article argues that the Fed model is flawed from a theoretical standpoint and reports evidence from 20 countries that seriously questions its empirical merits. Despite its widespread use and acceptance, the Fed model is found to be a failure both as a normative and as a positive model of equity pricing.     

Measurement Error in Access to Markets*

Microeconometric studies increasingly utilize travel times to markets as a determinant of economic behaviour. These studies typically use self‐reported measures from surveys, often characterized by measurement error. This paper is the first validation study of access to markets data. Unique data from Peru allow comparison of self‐reported variables with scientifically calculated variables. We investigate the determinants of the deviation between imputed and self‐reported data and show that it is non‐classical and dependent on observable socio‐economic variables. Our results suggest that studies using self‐reported measures of access may be estimating biased effects.     

Institutional distance among country influences and environmental performance standardization in multinational enterprises

This research compares and contrasts the findings in Aguilera-Caracuel et al. (2013) with the outcomes of applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) — a methodological strategy that gathers quantitative and qualitative information to explain complexity at the case level and generality across cases. Using the same sample of 128 multinational enterprises (MNEs) with headquarters and subsidiaries based in the USA, Canada, France, and Spain, we identify a set of relevant configurations of causes and conditions to explain environmental performance standardization. By avoiding separate treatments for each variable, which is typical in multiple regression analysis (MRA), we overcome prior limitations and propose a new way of understanding this phenomenon. In summary, our results significantly reinforce and complement the previous results.     

Social norms and recognition in social fundraising campaigns: The moderating role of self-construal

Developing effective solicitation campaigns has become a priority for nonprofit organizations to raise funds. To do so, they have begun to introduce social information and recognition mechanisms in their campaigns to encourage donations, yet our current understanding of the effectiveness of these interventions is limited. This study intends to contribute to a better understanding of the effectiveness of these campaigns by investigating the role played by social norms, recognition, and their interplay in charitable giving. In addition, the study also investigates the extent to which these effects are moderated by self-construal, an important individual psychological trait. This empirical investigation conducted an experimental design between subjects on a sample of 261 participants. A two-stage correction approach was used to estimate two dependent variables. The effectiveness of social norms and recognition varies depending on the decision in play (whether to donate, or how much to donate) as well as on an individual's self-construal (independent or interdependent). Strategies that combine several of these mechanisms should take into account their objective, that is, whether it is focused on boosting symbolic support or on incentivizing significant contributions. This article contributes by demonstrating that the type of social norm and the type of recognition matter, as they produce significant different effects on both the donation decision and the donation amount.     

Conditional beta pricing models: A nonparametric approach

We propose a two-stage procedure to estimate conditional beta pricing models that allows for flexibility in the dynamics of asset betas and market prices of risk (MPR). First, conditional betas are estimated nonparametrically for each asset and period using the time-series of previous data. Then, time-varying MPR are estimated from the cross-section of returns and betas. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also perform Monte Carlo simulations for the conditional version of the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993) and show that nonparametrically estimated betas outperform rolling betas under different specifications of beta dynamics. Using return data on the 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios, we find that the nonparametric procedure produces a better fit of the three-factor model to the data, less biased estimates of MPR and lower pricing errors than the Fama–MacBeth procedure with betas estimated under several alternative parametric specifications.     

Tourism image, evaluation variables and after purchase behaviour: inter-relationship

Numerous authors have pointed out the influence of tourism image on consumer behaviour. Tourism image will also exercise some influence on the quality perceived by tourists and on the satisfaction obtained from the holiday experience. This paper focuses on the relationship between the image of a destination as perceived by tourists and their behavioural intentions, and between that same image and the post-purchase evaluation of the stay. We will also examine the relationship between quality and satisfaction and between these variables and the tourist's behaviour variables. We place the accent on a joint analysis of these relationships, using a structural equation model. The results of the empirical study show that tourism image is a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, intention to return and willingness to recommend the destination. The role of image as a key factor in destination marketing is thus confirmed. With reference to the other relationships, on the one hand, it is confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and intention to return and that satisfaction determines the willingness to recommend the destination. However, the influence of quality on ‘willingness to recommend’ and the influence of satisfaction on ‘intention to return’ cannot be corroborated. In this sense, further research could be necessary.     

Spot water markets and risk in water supply

Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low‐profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders.     

Testing for structural stability in the whole sample

The paper examines a Lagrange Multiplier type test for the constancy of the parameter in general models with dependent data without imposing any artificial choice of the possible location of the break. In order to prove the asymptotic behaviour of the test, we extend a strong approximation result for partial sums of a sequence of random variables. We also present a Monte-Carlo experiment to examine the finite sample performance of the test and how it compares with tests which assume some knowledge of the possible location of the break.     

Controlling the Urban Fabric: The Complex Game of Distance and Proximity in European Upper‐Middle‐Class Residential Strategies

This article presents an open discussion of the processes of urban secession and gentrification in contemporary European cities, arguing that intergroup social dynamics in urban spaces are generally more complex than either extreme mutual avoidance or the colonization of neighbourhoods by the wealthiest groups. We analyse the residential strategies of urban upper‐middle class managers in various European metropolitan areas through in‐depth semi‐structured interviews to argue that these groups develop complex strategies of proximity and distance in relation to other social groups. The development of these ‘partial exit’ strategies takes place through specific combinations of practices that allow groups to select the dimensions they are willing to share with other social groups, and those in which they prefer a more segregated social environment for themselves and their families. The responses of our interviewees were consistently more nuanced and complex than suggested by a simplistic theory about their drive to withdraw from society, forcing us to develop more sophisticated conceptual frameworks to account for the growing prevalence of multi‐layered identities and spheres of reference and solidarity, specific combinations of elective segregation and local involvement, and more active patterns of mobility combined with local embeddedness.     

Entrepreneurial dynamics of the self-employed and of firms: a comparison of determinants using Spanish data

Entrepreneurship is viewed at either an individual level (self-employment), or a firm level (firms’ creation) phenomenon. We also observe the self-employed and firms that hire employees and grow, and others that do not. This paper theorizes occupational and firm-creation decisions and uses Spanish data on industry, region and time to compare entrepreneurial indicators based on official statistics of the number of self-employed individuals and of the number of firms, both with and without employees. The results show that there are important differences in the patterns of the determinants of growth rates in the self-employed and in firms and, within each of them, between those that hire employees and those that do not. We establish sound arguments to recommend the highest level of disaggregation possible in entrepreneurship studies.