Co‐movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co‐movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co‐movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid‐2008 to the end of 2009 co‐movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co‐movement during the sampled period.     

Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International‐to‐Retail Price Transmission

We examine the impact of the end of the coffee export quota system (EQS) on international‐to‐retail price transmission in France, Germany and the United States. We take account of the existence of long‐run threshold effects and short‐run price transmission asymmetries (PTAs). We find evidence of threshold effects in both periods (EQS and post‐EQS) in all three countries and the presence of short‐run PTAs during the post‐EQS period in all countries, but not during the EQS period. Our results indicate that the threshold values are smaller in the post‐EQS period, suggesting that retail prices became more responsive to changes in international prices. However, the speed of adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium decreases during the post‐EQS period in the three countries. In the short run, non‐linear impulse response analyses indicate that a shock in international prices was more persistent during the EQS period than in the post‐EQS period. Moreover, we find evidence of short‐run PTAs in the post‐EQS period, with differences across countries. We find support for the ‘rockets and feathers’ principle in the United States; in contrast, retail prices respond faster when international prices are falling in Germany and France. We explain these differences in terms of market structures.     

Future information systems for road transport: A Delphi panel-derived scenario

Modern information and microelectronic technology can be used to improve road traffic. The aim of this study is to create scenarios on how new information systems for improved road traffic can evolve. What are the driving forces? Who can act? Who can benefit? What are the social impacts?Through the use of a Delphi panel of professionals, researchers, and informed generalists, we have gathered impulses for the scenarios on how information technology, communication means, and control systems can reshape future road traffic. The issue studied is how this “Road Transport Informatics” (RTI) will evolve.     

On the generic impossibility of truthful behavior: A simple approach

Summary We provide an elementary proof showing how in economies with an arbitrary number of agents an arbitrary number of public goods and utility functions quasi-linear in money, any efficient and individually rational mechanism is not strategy-proof for any economy satisfying a mild regularity requirement.The authors wish to thank William Thomson, Salvadpr Barberá, José Angel Silva and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The remaining errors are our exclusive responsibility. Financial support from DGICYT under project PB 91-0756 and the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas is gratefully acknowledged.     

Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports

This paper applies smooth transition models to capture the nonlinear behavior in the imports data of six major European economies and to assess whether such nonlinearities are related to business cycle asymmetries. Two classes of switch between regimes are considered: endogenously determined transition that assumes nonlinearities are generated by idiosyncratic components specific to foreign trade, and exogenous transition based on GDP growth as a more direct indicator of the cyclical state of the economy. The results support the proposition that the dynamics of imports are nonlinear. In Belgium, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom, regimes change over the business cycle, while in Germany and Italy the switch between regimes is endogenous. National characteristics play a role in defining the position of extreme regimes, the smoothness of the transition, and local dynamics within each state.Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Lisbon, Portugal, March 10–14, 2004) and at the VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Vigo, Spain, June 3–5, 2004). The authors thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018

In order to increase competitiveness among individual producers and to encourage their integration, the federal government of Mexico has pursued the establishment, at both the state and national levels, of supply chains, or Sistema Producto (SP). For fisheries and aquaculture, 33 SPs exist at the state level and 7 at the national level, 1 of them for tilapia. The objective of this study is to carry out a foresight analysis (FA) of 4 tilapia SPs in Mexico—for the States of Colima, Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán—analyzing their 2018 vision for the development of the tilapia chain. FA provides an integral vision of both the internal and external environments, identifying the key factors for each SP and helping to develop the best strategies in order to compete successfully. Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán identify marketing aspects as key elements for their 10-year future: adding value to the product by means of new processing technologies, developing their own brand, and identifying and differentiating their product based on sanitary issues. Colima focuses its industry future success on efficiency improvements. Finally, the main technological disruptions identified by the 4 states are the incremental use of information technology, product and process certification, new hatcheries with genetically-improved fry, and new processing methodologies developed and/or applied.     

The Legislator as Political Entrepreneur: Investment in Political Capital

This paper applies the standard Austrian theory of capital investment to the standard interest group model of legislator behavior. Distinguishing between reputational capital and representative capital as interdependent forms of political capital, I argue that legislator behavior (specifically roll call voting) can be explained as entrepreneurial investment in political capital under uncertainty. I discuss several examples in which this approach can potentially add predictive power regarding legislative voting.     

Employment shifts, economic reform and the changes in public/private sector wages in Mexico: 1987–1997

Over the last decade, the public sector in Mexico experienced substantial fiscal reform, divestiture of public enterprises, and the elimination of many regulations affecting pay and employment. This study analyzes the changes in the public/private sector differences in wages during the 1987–1997 period. The results from analyzing microdata from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano show that relative public sector wages increased from 1987 to 1997. Most of the relative wage increase in the public sector can be explained by increases in the price of skills and by changes in sorting across sectors. The results have important public policy implications since they suggest that public sector workers earn more and their wages have grown faster than those of their private sector counterparts. As such, policies contemplating public sector reform should take into account the effect of these measures on the inter-sectoral income distribution and the overall economic growth. First version received: April 2000/Final version received: December 2000     

Education and wages in the Czech and Slovak Republics during transition

An employer-based sample of over 400,000 Czech and 125,000 Slovak men is used to estimate the benefits of education in 1995–1997. By 1997, education of all types had become substantially more highly rewarded in both countries than it was either under communism or in the early years of the transition. Education's value began increasing earlier and reached a higher level in the Czech Republic than in Slovakia. Increases in the value of education were especially pronounced for types of education ideologically disfavored by communism.