U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market

We examine the association between the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar and US presidential cycles. Results show that Republican presidencies tend to start with a strong dollar, which then depreciates over the course of the presidency. In contrast, Democratic presidencies tend to begin with a weak dollar that then appreciates. These patterns result in an apparent presidential effect in US foreign exchange rates, the direction of which depends on whether exchange rates are measured by levels or by returns.     

Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities

We examine the financial conditions of dealers that participated in two of the Federal Reserve's lender-of-last-resort (LOLR) facilities—the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF)—that provided liquidity against a range of assets during 2008–2009. Dealers with lower equity returns and greater leverage prior to borrowing from the facilities were more likely to participate in the programs, borrow more, and, in the case of the TSLF, at higher bidding rates. Dealers with less liquid collateral on their balance sheets before the facilities were introduced also tended to borrow more. The results suggest that both financial performance and balance sheet liquidity play a role in LOLR utilization.     

Political Party Affiliation of the President,Majority in Congress,and Sin Stock Returns

We find that in contrast to the stock market, which performs better during Democratic presidencies, “sin” stocks—publicly traded producers of tobacco, alcohol, and gaming—perform better during Republican presidencies and even more so when the Republican presidency is accompanied by a Republican majority in at least one chamber of Congress. We examine whether sin firms use contributions to establish connections with politicians and find that sin firms contribute more to Republican candidates and that these contributions are greater when Republicans are in power. We also find a positive relation between political contributions and future returns. The relation is stronger for contributions to Republicans.     

Technical Progress and the North–South Terms of Trade

In a classical world where prices of both northern manufactures and southern raw materials are determined by market demand and supply, technical progress in one region leads to a terms-of-trade improvement of the other region irrespective of whether technical progress is labor-saving or raw-material saving. But in a neo-Kaleckian framework characterized by surplus capacity, and an effective demand problem in the North and a capacity constraint in the South, the terms of trade would turn against the South even if the North experienced a higher rate of technical progress than that of the South.     

Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies

This paper primarily examines whether the ‘hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve’ (HNKPC) holds for four important emerging economics viz., Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. This has been done after testing for the structural stability of this relationship. Econometric issues like the test of unit roots in presence of a structural break and estimation of output gap have also been done appropriately. Our findings suggest that the HNKPC is not stable for all the four countries. However, the analysis based on the two sub-periods thus formed clearly shows mixed evidence in respect of holding of this relationship.

     

Does Autonomy Matter in State Owned Enterprises? Evidence from Performance Contracts in India

Empirical evidence on the effect of managerial autonomy on the performance of state‐owned enterprises (SOE) is surprisingly scant despite autonomy being a preferred reform instrument over partial privatization in many countries. Using longitudinal data on performance contracts of state‐owned enterprises in India, this paper finds that managerial autonomy is associated with significant increases in enterprise profitability and efficiency. Further, using India's unique reform experience where both managerial autonomy and partial privatization were pursued side by side, the paper finds that while the positive effects of autonomy continue post‐partial privatization, the effects of partial privatization on performance are ambiguous. Specifically, once autonomy is controlled for, partial privatization has a positive effect on SOE profitability only after it crosses a critical level of government disinvestment. The findings suggest that organizational reforms such as granting managerial autonomy can be an important policy instrument in improving SOE performance particularly in cases where governments are unable to make substantial disinvestments.     

A Stackelberg Oligopoly with Nonidentical Firms

This paper extends the Stackelberg model to include any number of nonidentical firms and demonstrates significant counterintuitive results. For example, entry of an additional firm may increase the quantities and/or profits of some existing firms; it may also increase the total industry profit.     

A reexamination of corporate sell-offs of real estate assets

This article reexamines the now generally accepted notion that sell-offs of real estate assets provide positive returns for sellers but not for buyers. Following previous research, we use event study methods, but we modify the conventional market model to permit its residuals (unexpected returns) to be described by a time-varying conditional variance. We also differ from previous work in that our sample contains only sell-offs that can be precisely dated. Although we find substantial evidence of time-varying volatility in the unexpected return series, our economic results confirm the conventional viewpoint.     

Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the federal reserve’s responses to the crisis

In responding to the severity and broad scope of the crisis, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has aggressively utilized both traditional monetary policy instruments, as well as innovative tools to provide liquidity. In this paper, the Fed’s actions are examined in light of the evolution of risk during the crisis. The empirical evidence supports the Fed’s views on the primacy of liquidity constraints in the earlier stages of the crisis and the increased prominence of counterparty credit risk as the crisis evolved in 2008. I conclude that an understanding of the prevailing risk environment is necessary to evaluate when central bank programs are likely to be effective and under what conditions the programs might cease to be necessary.     

REDISTRIBUTION AND FREE TRADE IN AGRICULTURE: ARE THEY COMPLEMENTARY?

The purpose of the paper is to look at the welfare effects of trade in agricultural goods in a less developed country where the agricultural market is controlled by a handful of large farmers. It is shown that the success of trade reform depends on the distribution of output between large and small farmers and the success of land reform leading to redistribution from the large to the small farmers depends on trade reform. In other words, if undertaken in isolation, each reform might lead to a fall in welfare, but if jointly undertaken, they will lead to an increase in welfare. Thus the two reforms are complementary.