Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models

For hypotheses on the coefficient values of the lagged-dependent variables in the ARX class of dynamic regression models, test procedures are developed which yield exact inference for given (up to an unknown scale factor) distribution of the innovation errors. They include exact tests on the maximum lag length, for structural change and on the presence of (seasonal or multiple) unit roots, i.e. they cover situations where usually asymptotic and non-exact t, F, AOC, ADF or HEGY tests are employed. The various procedures are demonstrated and compared in illustrative empirical models and the approach is critically discussed.     

Wealth inequality and efficiency in the Commons, part II: the regulated case

Does more inequality lead to more efficiency in the managementof common property resources? To answer this question, an attemptis made to develop relevant theoretical models and to articulatethem with empirical evidence drawn mainly from social sciencestudies. The paper is divided into two parts. In this, the secondpart, it is shown that inequality tends to amplify the distributiveeffects of regulation when the latter is carried out throughthe use of second best instruments. As a resuh efficiency gainsfrom regulation must decrease as inequality increases, for allusers to gain from such regulation.     

Individual decisions and group decisions: The fundamental differences

The paper contains a unified development of Arrow's impossibility theorem for rational group decisions, Gibbard and Satterthwaite's impossibility theorem for strategy-proof group decisions, and the close reciprocal relationship that exists between these two theorems.     

An Argument for Deregulating the Transfer of Agricultural Technologies to Developing Countries

In the past few decades many developing countries have liberalizedtrade and investment, removing barriers to imports and allowingthe introduction of new foreign technologies. Unfortunately,agriculture often remains outside this reform process. Regulatoryobstacles continue to restrain the transfer of technologiesthrough private trade in seeds and other inputs. Industrialcountries characteristically allow the transfer of private andpublic technologies through multiple channels. Developing countriesoften force technology transfer through a single channel controlledby government agencies, with an emphasis on official performancetests. This article analyzes the institutional arrangementsgoverning the international transfer of new agricultural technologies,examining the cases of agricultural machinery in Bangladeshand seed varieties in Turkey. The analysis shows that allowingthe private transfer of technologies and refocusing input regulationson externalities could lead to significant productivity andincome gains in developing countries.     

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.