Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?

The aim of this paper is to assess inflation forecast accuracy over the short-term horizon, using Consumer Price Index (CPI) disaggregated data, through a bottom-up approach. That is, aggregating forecasts is compared with aggregate forecasting. A new dimension to the question of to bottom-up or not is introduced by considering different levels of data disaggregation, namely a higher disaggregation level than the one considered up to now. This raises modelling issues that one has to cope with. In particular, it is suggested the use of a new strand of models, the Factor-Augmented SARIMA models. Considering as case-study the Portuguese one, we find an inverse relationship between the forecast horizon and the amount of information underlying the forecast, when minimizing the RMSFE.     

Defaults in bank loans to SMEs during the financial crisis

We investigate the role of (business) collateral and (personal) guarantees alongside small and medium enterprise (SME), lending bank and loan characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sectors, and geographic locations while controlling for unobserved time effects in predicting default at the peak of the financial crisis. First, we find a positive relation between collateral and default, and a negative relation between guarantees and default. Second, we find a negative relation between the joint influence of collateral and high credit score, and a positive relation between the joint influence of collateral and low credit score and default. We also find a negative relation between the joint influence of guarantees and high credit score. These findings are relevant for SME policies aimed at facilitating access to credit, reducing the cost of borrowing, and decreasing default; risk management of banks; and the application of theories of financial economics in the context of a financial crisis.     

The economy of Portugal and the European Union: From high growth prospects to the debt crisis

This paper documents some of the recent economic history of Portugal, since its accession to the EEC, to the adoption of the Euro and more recently to the financial and economic crisis. In the first part of the paper we show the economic performance of Portugal during the last 25 years till now, from the fast growth of the late 1980s and early 1990s to the current recession. We point out some of the reasons for this trajectory – slow productivity growth, disconnection between productivity and wages, continued external and public deficits – and choose three areas that must be improved in order to reverse the current downward spiral – justice needs to be more effective and faster, education needs to improve its quality and distribution across the population, and the public administration must become more efficient.     

The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area

This article investigates the dynamics of aggregate wages and prices in the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural vector error-correction model, where the structural shocks are identified using the long-run properties of the theoretical model, as well as the cointegrating properties of the estimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation emerge as more persistent in the EA than in the US in the face of import price, unemployment, or permanent technology shocks. This finding is robust to the changes in the sample period and in the models’ specifications entertained in the article.     

Looking backward to look forward: water use and economic growth from a long-term perspective

Recent research has examined the relationship between natural resources and economic growth. Considered vitally important, not only for humanity’s well-being but also for the integrity of the ecosystem, the relationship between water use and economic growth has nevertheless traditionally attracted little attention by analysts. This article studies water use trends from 1900 to 2000 throughout the world and their relationship to the main determinants of economic growth. To do this, we first analyse water use trajectories. Second, to proceed with the determinants of water use, we reformulate the Ehrlich and Holdren’s impact, population, affluence, technology (IPAT) equation (1971), decomposing water use trends into changes in economic demands and in water use intensity on the basis of a decomposition analysis. Finally, a simple scenario analysis is conducted, to project future water use trends under different economic, demographic and technological assumptions.

?The empirical evidence shows that economic and population growth have been crucial in explaining the increase in water use over the past 100 years, with significant regional differences. Nevertheless, the decline in water use intensity has been responsible for a significant reduction in the growth of total water use.     

Shell scenarios: What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects

Much of the discussion of past scenario development in business has centred on Shell's pioneering work in the 1970s. This paper examines more closely what was done and published, drawing on the direct experience of some of those most closely involved in the detailed work and upon hitherto unpublished and uncited material, to present a rather different narrative than what is to be found in the existing literature. The result nevertheless retains the reputation of Shell's scenario methodology as useful for understanding and gaining advantage from an uncertain future, while shedding light on how current uncertainties may be better handled in corporate strategy appraisal.     

Women and Retirement Pensions: A Research Review

Abstract

The links between women's caring work and access to economic resources are particularly critical in the context of widespread public policy debates about retirement and pensions, many of which neglect care as a key issue for analysis. However, among feminist economists it is widely recognized that women's patterns of care provision have adverse implications for their access to economic resources in later life. The feminist economics literature examines many of the interactions between women's caring roles and their access to resources, particularly women's capacity to access economic resources through publicly mandated or regulated pension schemes. This article reviews research that places women's patterns of work and care at the center of analyses of retirement pension policy in an effort to provide a summary of research on gender and pensions policy and to contrast the extent to which differing institutional and policy frameworks accommodate women's caring roles.     

Negotiating fair pay and conditions: low paid women's experience and perceptions of labour market deregulation and individual wage bargaining

The OECD is strongly supportive of the industrial relations changes recently introduced in Australia. This article examines the experiences of low paid women in a deregulated labour market context. The research highlights the gendered effects of the recent reforms and cautions against the use of Australia as a model framework.     

Ownership, Productivity Change, and Financial Performance in Chinese Industry

This paper investigates Chinese industrial productivity from 1980 to 1996. Results include series for foreign-linked, shareholding, and private enterprises. We find long-term productivity increase, with growth rates declining during the 1990's. Productivity outcomes outside the state and collective sectors are modest, with shareholding enterprises suffering productivity declines. The paper examines differences in marginal factor productivity across ownership types, considers the impact of business cycles on the interpretation of productivity trends, and documents a statistical relationship among the profitability of state enterprises, the relative productivity performance of state firms, and the entry of new firms outside the state sector.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 786–813. Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts 02254; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260; Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 5 Jianguomennei Street, Beijing, China 100732.