Chinese Consumer Market: Continual Emergence of New Business Patterns

In 2020,the Chinese consumer market will further face the challenge of the weakening demographic dividend and flow dividend.Although the consumer industry is still growing steadily overall,the industry has entered a new stage of stock competition,demand differentiation and accelerated innovation.     

An exploratory study of earnings management detectability,analyst coverage and the impact of IFRS adoption: Evidence from China

Analysts serving as external monitors to managers is a topic of considerable interest in the analyst coverage literature. There are two outcomes of analyst coverage studies: curbing and stimulating earnings management. However, recent studies (such as Yu, 2008) only provide evidence supporting the curbing side. Given the fact that the data of these studies focus on developed markets and the finding of Rodríguez-Pérez and Hemmen (2010) that external governance mechanisms may stimulate earnings management in an opaque information environment, we conjecture whether stimulating side would be dominant in emerging markets. China offers a valuable setting for us to test the question. Using the data of China capital market from 2003 to 2009, we find that analyst coverage stimulates earnings management through above-the-line items (ALIs) where earnings management cannot be easily detected, and curbs earnings management through below-the-line items (BLIs) where earnings management can be easily detected. We also find that the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in China does create many new opportunities for managers’ earnings management but does not significantly improve the monitoring effect of analyst coverage. We only find that compared to those without analyst coverage, firms with analyst coverage have a lower level of earnings management through BLIs after IFRS adoption. These findings suggest that information opacity may weaken the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms and high quality accounting standards in the literal sense may not enhance the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms if it is not compatible with the market’s institutional environment. In addition, we find that firms with earnings meeting the benchmark have a lower level of earnings management, which indicates that bright-line accounting based rules used in emerging capital markets may constrain the managers’ behavior.     

Following brands on Twitter: an extension of theory of planned behavior

Due to its immediacy and efficiency, Twitter has recently emerged as a form of marketing communication tool that offers unique advantages for two-way communication between marketers and consumers. This study examines brand-following behavior on Twitter using the Ajzen's model of theory of planned behavior (TPB). Results show that attitude toward brand following, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and brand attachment are positively associated with intention to follow brands on Twitter. Consumers’ intention to create (i.e., intention to tweet at brands) and disseminate (i.e., intention to retweet the links of brands) brand-related information, as well as purchase intention, are the outcomes of intention to follow brands on Twitter. Overall findings suggest that TPB model can be used to predict Twitter users’ brand-following behavior. More importantly, our finding that brand attachment drives consumer intention to follow brands on Twitter extends the TPB framework. This study provides both theoretical and managerial implications.     

Do Neighbours Influence Value‐Added‐Tax Introduction? A Spatial Duration Analysis

The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved errors, but it can also be present in the baseline hazards and the dependent variables. A new spatial survival model with these three possible spatial correlation structures is explored and used to investigate the implementation of value‐added tax (VAT) in 99 countries over the period 1970–2009. Estimation is performed by a Bayesian approach through the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The estimation results suggest the presence of a significant spatial correlation among the VAT introductions of neighbouring countries.     

Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation

This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.     

中国失业保险制度改革方向:纳入社会救助——基于历史背景与功能定位的分析

失业保险在建立和长期发展过程中,具有缓和劳资矛盾、天然双向平滑经济波动、提供失业保障和平滑个人收入的基本功能。但随着各国劳动保护及福利制度的发展,失业保险在政治和经济方面的功能减弱,且其失业收入损失补偿功能常常引发失业陷阱,于是各国进行了以促进积极就业为导向的改革。中国失业保险制度曾经为经济体制转型起到了“减震器”的作用。随着劳动保护和社会保障制度的发展和政府就业政策的完善,在二元就业结构、户籍制度、公共部门人力资源管理制度及政府承担就业促进任务的影响下,我国失业保险的政治、经济、失业人口收入补偿、就业促进功能未能有效发挥。在比较了若干改革方案后,本文认为,取消失业保险并将其功能并入社会救助体系是新时代背景下我国失业保险制度的最优改革路径。     

浅析FEWD随钻测井技术的作用与应用效果

随钻遥测、随钻电法、声波、核、核磁共振、随钻地震等技术近几年具有长足的发展。随钻测井技术主要应用于地质导向和地层评价。大力发展随钻测井技术是油田技术服务公司的一个主要关注方向。我国发展随钻测井技术要有新的思路,实现跨越式发展,才能紧跟世界石油工业先进技术的发展步伐,达到提高国内随钻测井技术水平的目的。本文针对利用该FEWD形成的随钻测井技术,介绍了该技术涉及到的常用井下仪器组合、常用钻具组合、现场施工管理方式、主要应用技术,以及该技术的应用范围、应用效果和在部分油田的使用情况。     

Market timing: Recent development and a new test

Henriksson-Merton's market timing test suffers nontrivial size distortion when the event forecast is autocorrelated. A new test is suggested to detect the dependence of two autocorrelated binary time series. It complements the existing tests due to better test power.     

A research note on market creation in the pharmaceutical industry

When a firm launches a market-creating innovation, it launches a new product for which there are no close product substitutes. Thus, the new product causes a shift in the existing product-market structure of an industry. This paper reports on the findings of the analysis of 51 large pharmaceutical firms and their market-creating activities. The study suggests that market-creating firms have capabilities in both R&D and marketing. Furthermore, market-creating firms enjoy stronger efficiencies, manage costs better and make more profitable use of their assets.