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61.
Jeremy Clark Bonggeun Kim Richie Poulton Barry Milne 《The Canadian journal of economics》2006,39(4):1151-1172
Abstract . Young people with little 'social or health capital' may be more likely to take up hazardous consumption and shun investments in human capital, raising their likelihood of a 'rags to rags' sequence. First, diminishing marginal utility could raise the marginal benefit of hazardous consumption and the cost of investment. But poor youths may also have lower expectations of future success, independent of the choices they make. Lower expectations of success could reduce the future cost of hazardous consumption and benefit of investment. We test the effect of expectations on decisions to smoke, drink hazardously, exercise, and complete high school, using a longitudinal study of youth in New Zealand. We find that 15-year-olds' expectations of success predict the subsequent onset of smoking, lack of exercise, and failure to complete high school, but not hazardous drinking. While some of the influence of expectations can be explained by low social and health capital, IQ, and other factors, expectations retain a direct effect on smoking and exercise once these other factors are controlled for. 相似文献
62.
Jeremy Wakeford 《Development Southern Africa》2004,21(1):109-132
This article investigates the relationship between labour productivity, average real wages and the unemployment rate in South Africa at the macroeconomic level, using time‐series econometric techniques. There is strong evidence of a structural break in 1990, after which time all three variables rose rapidly. The break appears to have negatively affected the level of employment in the first instance, and subsequently fed through into per worker wages and productivity. A long‐term equilibrium (cointegrating) relationship was found between real wages and productivity, but unemployment was apparently unconnected to the system, which lends support to the insider–outsider theory. A long‐term wage–productivity elasticity of 0,58 indicates that productivity has grown more rapidly than wages, which is consistent with the finding that labour's share of gross output has been shrinking over the past decade. These trends may be explained plausibly by the adoption of job‐shedding technology and capital intensification. 相似文献
63.
Jeremy Waddington 《英国劳资关系杂志》2003,41(2):335-358
During 2002 tension between trade unions and the Labour government reached a level not seen before in their relationship. This review examines the source of the tension and its manifestations. It shows that during the year a range of issues emerged that divided the government and unions. New Labour ‘modernizers’ cited these differences as reasons to further distance the Party from trade unions. The article argues that relations between trade unionism and the government are at low ebb, and that the extent of disagreement between the two is now more pronounced than at any other time since 1997. 相似文献
64.
This paper extends previous studies on bond ratings by modeling as a system of equations the determinants of a municipality's decision to obtain a bond rating and the determinants of the municipality's rating for the two major rating agencies. Our model provides a framework to examine formally the differences between the two agencies in the determinants of the ratings. We estimate the four-equation system by smooth simulated maximum likelihood estimation and then construct minimum χ2 tests on cross-equation restrictions based on optimal minimum distance estimation. Self-selection is found to be important in Moody's ratings while not in those of S&P. Split ratings appear to reflect differences in both the weight attached to specific determinants of the ratings and differences in the way the bonds are classified. 相似文献
65.
The Masakhane Campaign in South Africa has received a fair amount of criticism, largely because its high media profile has not been accompanied by delivery and improvement of services at the local level. Contrary to this generally negative perception, there are a number of local authorities that have greatly improved the situation in their areas through pragmatic strategies and programmes under the banner of Masakhane. This article presents information on the current status of the campaign in a sample of local authorities, and attempts to interpret this information so as to ascertain those factors that influence on the success or failure of local authorities as service providers. 相似文献
66.
Michael T. Owyang Jeremy M. Piger Howard J. Wall Christopher H. Wheeler 《Journal of urban economics》2008,64(3):538-550
This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is, therefore, the weighted average of the high-phase and low-phase growth rates, with the weight being the frequency of the two phases. We estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high-phase and low-phase growth rates. Growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix, while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only, specifically, the relative importance of manufacturing. Overall, our results strongly reject the notion that city-level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle. 相似文献
67.
The price elasticity of raw milk supply in Japan is estimated over time by a structural time-series model in state space form, and the changes in elasticity are tested by the diagnosing test of de John and Penzer in 1998. The supply function is modeled with a local linear trend and a strictly exogenous autoregressive distributed lag price. The seasonality in the data is adjusted by a structural time-series model. In the 1970–1997 period, there were major dairy policy changes in Japan: a production adjustment, related penalties, and two-tier pricing. Hokkaido is the region that mainly provides the supply of raw milk for milk products, while Tofuken is the region that mainly produces drinking milk. The estimated price elasticity in Hokkaido became stable after imposition of the production adjustment. On the other hand, price elasticity in Tofuken became stable after the inflation of the mid-1970s. Price elasticity is estimated to be more inelastic as well as more likely to converge in inelasticity in Hokkaido than in Tofuken. We discuss the relationship between changes in dairy policy and changes in price elasticity. 相似文献
68.
Prior competitive dynamics research has drawn on theories of information processing to model the subjective antecedents of executives' retaliation choices. This prior work has made great progress in developing our understanding of the retaliation choices most firms will make to a given type of attack. What the information processing perspective has not been able to do is explain firm‐specific behavior to predict which competitive moves individual firms will challenge, or explain why individual firms differ in the types of actions that they are most likely to challenge. The goal of this paper is to sharpen the theoretical and empirical focus on predicting firm‐level retaliation proclivities. We leverage managerial cognition research to examine the relationship between firm‐level differences in the cognitive frameworks that executives possess, and firm‐level differences in whether and how quickly firms challenge a market move. Results from a longitudinal study of the airline industry suggest that the addition of a cognitive perspective provides important insights into competitive retaliation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
69.
Jeremy J. Nalewaik 《International Journal of Forecasting》2011,27(2):281
This paper incorporates vintage differences and forecasts into the Markov switching models described by Hamilton (1994). The vintage differences and forecasts induce parameter breaks close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. A supplementary procedure estimates the statistical properties of the end-of-sample observations that behave differently from the rest, allowing inferred probabilities to reflect the breaks. Empirical results using real-time data show that these techniques improve the ability of a Markov switching model based on GDP and GDI to recognize the start of the 2001 recession. 相似文献
70.
Jeremy Waddington 《Industrial Relations Journal》2011,42(6):508-529
Drawing on survey evidence, this paper explores the quality of information and consultation at European works councils and developments in the support infrastructure available to representatives. The paper highlights that European works councils are an institution in process. As such, wide‐ranging developments have been implemented to improve their performance, but many of these will have to be extended in coverage if European work councils are to be exploited to better effect by labour. 相似文献