The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on International Stock Markets

We examine the effects of terrorist attacks on stock markets, using a dataset that covers all significant events and that directly relate to the major economies of the world. Our event study suggests that terrorist attacks produce mildly negative price effects. We compare these price reactions to those from an alternative type of unanticipated disaster, earthquakes, and find that price declines following terror attacks are more pronounced. However, in both cases prices rebound within the first week of the aftermath. We also compare price responses internationally and for separate industries, and find that reactions are strongest for local markets and for industries that are directly affected by the attack. Our results suggest that financial markets react strongly to terror events but then recover swiftly and soon return to business as usual. The September 11th attacks turn out to be the only event that caused long‐term effects on financial markets, especially in terms of industries' systematic risk.     

Central bank independence and financial instability

It has been argued that central bank independence (CBI) may not only be beneficial for reaching the objective of price stability, but also for maintaining financial stability. Greater independence from external pressure implies that central banks are less politically constrained in acting to prevent financial distress, while it also will allow them to act earlier and more decisively when a crisis erupts. We estimate the relation between CBI and a newly constructed measure of financial instability using a dynamic panel model for the period 1985–2005 with a large set of control variables. We find a significant and robust negative relation between CBI and financial instability, which is mostly due to political independence.     

Model-supported business-to-business prospect prediction based on an iterative customer acquisition framework

This article discusses a model designed to help sales representatives acquire customers in a business-to-business environment. Sales representatives are often overwhelmed by available information, so they use arbitrary rules to select leads to pursue. The goal of the proposed model is to generate a high-quality list of prospects that are easier to convert into leads and ultimately customers in three phases: Phase 1 occurs when there is only information on the current customer base and uses the nearest neighbor method to obtain predictions. As soon as there is information on companies that did not become customers, phase 2 initiates, triggering a feedback loop to optimize and stabilize the model. This phase uses logistic regression, decision trees, and neural networks. Phase 3 combines phases 1 and 2 into a weighted list of prospects. Preliminary tests indicate the good quality of the model. The study makes two theoretical contributions: First, the authors offer a standardized version of the customer acquisition framework, and second, they point out the iterative aspects of this process.     

(Non-)Insurance Markets,Loss Size Manipulation and Competition: Experimental Evidence*

The common view that insurer buyer power may effectively counteract provider market power critically rests on the idea that consumers and insurers have a joint interest in pushing for price and cost reductions. We develop theory and provide experimental evidence that the interests of insurers and consumers may be misaligned when insurers have the power to influence the service supplier’s cost. Insurers with such buyer power may benefit from increasing initial loss sizes to create demand for insurance. Insurer competition eliminates their profits but markets do not return to the initial non-insurance state. This constitutes a welfare loss.     

Dynamic efficiency of Cournot and Bertrand competition: input versus output spillovers

We consider the efficiency of Cournot and Bertrand equilibria in a duopoly with substitutable goods where firms invest in process R&D that generates input spillovers. Under Cournot competition firms always invest more in R&D than under Bertrand competition. More importantly, Cournot competition yields lower prices than Bertrand competition when the R&D production process is efficient, when spillovers are substantial, and when goods are not too differentiated. The range of cases for which total surplus under Cournot competition exceeds that under Bertrand competition is even larger as competition over quantities always yields the largest producers’ surplus.     

What is considered deception in experimental economics?

Experimental Economics - In experimental economics there is a norm against using deception. But precisely what constitutes deception is unclear. While there is a consensus view that providing false...     

The Split Core for Sequencing Games

The split core is a refinement of the core for sequencing games. The split core arises from a generalization of the equal gain splitting (EGS) rule that is introduced byCuriel et al. (1989). It is pointed out that the split core is the convex hull of permutation-based gain splitting allocations and the EGS allocation is in the barycenter of the split core. Finally, an axiomatic characterization of the split core is provided.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: 026.     

On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models

The ranking of multivariate volatility models is inherently problematic because when the unobservable volatility is substituted by a proxy, the ordering implied by a loss function may be biased with respect to the intended one. We point out that the size of the distortion is strictly tied to the level of the accuracy of the volatility proxy. We propose a generalized necessary and sufficient functional form for a class of non-metric distance measures of the Bregman type which ensure consistency of the ordering when the target is observed with noise. An application to three foreign exchange rates is provided.     

Does the Life Course Savings Scheme Have the Potential to Improve Work–Life Balance?

To improve individuals' work–life balance, trade unions, employers' organizations, governments and the European Commission currently promote a life course perspective in activating labour market policies. In 2006, the Life Course Savings Scheme (Levensloopregeling) was introduced in the Netherlands, which aims to increase labour participation and to improve the work–life balance over the life course. What can we learn from the Dutch case? In 2006, actual participation in the scheme was with 6% much lower than expected. Participation rates were higher among males, full timers, older employees, the higher‐income groups and persons with a partner. However, our multivariate analyses of data for over 500,000 civil servants show that the higher participation rates of males, full timers and older employees are related to the higher earnings of these groups, and that after control for earnings, participation is higher among females, part timers and the young. This indicates that the scheme has a potential to contribute to the work–life balance over the life‐cycle.     

Power laws and comparative advantage

Using a comprehensive international trade data set we document empirical Power Laws (PLs) for the distribution of the interaction between countries as measured by revealed comparative advantage. Using the recently developed estimator by Gabaix and Ibragimov (2011), we find strong evidence in favour of PLs along the time, country and sector dimension for three different levels of data aggregation. This finding is not predicted by any of the existing trade theories. The estimated PL exponents characterizing the distribution of revealed comparative advantage are stable over time but differ between countries and sectors. These differences are related empirically to country and sector characteristics, including population size, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factor intensities.