Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?

We investigate optimal portfolio choice for an investor who is skeptical about the degree to which excess returns are predictable. Skepticism is modeled as an informative prior over the R²$R^2$ of the predictive regression. We find that the evidence is sufficient to convince even an investor with a highly skeptical prior to vary his portfolio on the basis of the dividend-price ratio and the yield spread. The resulting weights are less volatile and deliver superior out-of-sample performance as compared to the weights implied by an entirely model-based or data-based view.     

Managing the Waters of Baՙth Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria

The Syrian government and international development agencies commonly present water scarcity as being one of Syria's main development challenges. This paper draws on a set of international reports, written in consultation with Syrian officials, to reveal the politics of this scarcity. I show how water scarcity is constructed and ordered through spatial representations. Rather than accepting the common explanation that scarcity is the result of population pressure, I argue that Syria's water scarcity is a consequence of the ruling Ba?th party's continuous promotion of water-intensive agriculture. This support for the agricultural sector, motivated in part by a desire for food self-sufficiency and growth through an expansion in irrigated agriculture, is linked to the rural roots of the Ba?th party and the influential Peasants Union. In revealing these key national politics, this analysis highlights how geopolitical studies of water in the Middle East must move beyond a focus on inter-state dynamics and pay critical attention to the politics operating around water distribution and use on a range of scalar levels.     

Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: confusion,competition and complacency

Flood risk insurance can be an effective tool in assisting the restoration of damaged property after a flood event and sustaining communities through difficult times. It can also form part of a wider flood risk management strategy. In the light of recent flood events in the UK and in the context of changing property insurance markets, the universal cover previously enjoyed by floodplain residents has been called into question. Conflicting media and industry views leave the floodplain resident and the wider community in confusion. A survey of floodplain residents in England regarding their experience with flooding and flood insurance in England has been undertaken. The results reveal that some floodplain residents do indeed encounter difficulties when seeking insurance for their homes. However, despite the risk‐averse policies of some insurers, availability of insurance is still strong in both at‐risk and previously flooded locations. Success in gaining insurance may lead to complacency among residents who see no advantage in pursuing other, more costly, damage mitigation actions. As a tool in risk management, therefore, the market is prevented from realising its potential by competition, which results in a lack of a consistent approach, rewards homeowners' search strategies and reduces information flow.     

Collaboration at work: An integrative multilevel conceptualization

The term collaboration has been used throughout a variety of research disciplines to describe multiple types of interaction; yet, a unified, comprehensive definition of the construct remains elusive. This lack of clarity regarding the distinctions and commonalities between collaboration and other interaction concepts has resulted in conceptual confusion that affects practice and research in human resource management. Practitioners see collaboration as more of a buzzword than as an effective human resource strategy. Previous theory development efforts have not yet taken a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach. This has resulted in failure to integrate key themes across disciplines into an overall view of collaboration, which is a commonplace practice in business and military sectors alike. This paper describes a multidisciplinary conceptualization of collaboration and discusses the implications of this integrative theory to human resource management and strategy development as well as future research efforts.     

An Empirical Study of Environmental Awareness and Practices in SMEs

With increasing awareness of environmental issues, there has been rising demand for environmental-friendly business practices. Prior research has shown that the implementation of environmental management practices is influenced by existing and potential stakeholder groups in the form of external pressures from legislators, environmental groups, financial institutions and suppliers, as well as internally by employees and owner/manager attitudes and knowledge. However, it has been reported that despite business owner/managers having strong “green” attitudes, the level of implementation of environmental-friendly practices is low. In order to explore the connection between pressures for improved practices and the management actions taken, this article examines how influence from various stakeholders is related to awareness of environmental issues, and how this awareness relates to actions taken within the businesses to reduce the environmental impact of their operations. The results indicate that legislation does result in general environmental awareness, and that organizations are then willing to␣change their business processes and environmental strategies. However, despite their actions they have little awareness of the benefits that might arise from cost reductions from their environmental-friendly practices. Those influenced by their suppliers act to reduce waste, but do not put into place formal environmental management systems, or use environmental messages to market their goods or services. Nevertheless, it can be argued that they have a real commitment to environmental issues, as evidenced by a willingness to voluntarily contribute to environmental organizations.     

Work motivation and public service motivation: disentangling varieties of motivation and job satisfaction

Research on motivation in the public sector has used public service motivation (PSM) and self-determination theory (SDT) interchangeably. This paper compares both theories, develops hypotheses pertaining to their assumptions, and empirically tests them in two public offices in Switzerland. We then explore their relationship with job satisfaction as an indicator of predictive validity. We find that SDT and PSM display conceptual differentiation and SDT has a strongest relationship to job satisfaction. However, moderation analysis suggests that employees with high levels of PSM have more stable job satisfaction compared to their low-PSM counterparts.     

Innovation and performance in the hotel industry

The growing competition in the hotel industry is one of the main challenges of this segment, which increasingly depends on the ability to innovate. Thus, this article aims to analyze the impact of innovation on the performance of employees and hotel organizations. This is an exploratory study, with a quantitative approach using a structured computer-administered questionnaire to 73 managers of hotel chains, located in Brazil, which correspond to 792 hotels. Data analysis used multiple linear regression method with SPSS software to find out the relationship between the factors of innovation (communication, processes, leadership, and strategy) and the performance of employees and hotel organizations. Results show that the factors of communication, leadership, and strategy directly influence the performance of the employees. However, only the leadership factor directly affects the performance of hotel organizations.     

Nature conservation for future sustainable shorelines: Lessons from seeking to involve the public

The soft coastline of eastern England is dynamic, with much of it subject to the risk of erosion or flooding. A number of internationally important coastal nature conservation sites are under threat. This paper explores the character and reasoning behind changing coastal management policies and governance practices in England. It reveals how Natural England is tackling these changes, notably with regard to establishing reconstituted nature conservation sites and re-designed coastlines. Such an approach requires the close involvement of policy leaders, agency officers, local maritime authorities and local residents. This paper explains how participatory processes play a critical role in the design of new coastlines that are ecologically and geomorphologically sustainable yet enable local communities to survive and flourish. A case study involving a visioning exercise at Winterton-on-Sea in Norfolk, UK, highlights the many practical difficulties around planning for the uncertain future of internationally important nature conservation sites, and local economies and communities. Future moves toward sustainable coastal alignments will have to involve a wide mix of public and civic bodies, as well as local communities, and will be underpinned by risk-based planning and well-researched adaptation and relocation arrangements.