中国“人口红利”及其获取对策

中国东、中、西部三大区域和各个省份的人口红利变动趋势有所不同,西部地区人口红利期较东、中部滞后,省与省之间呈现出东部老年赡养负担重,西部少儿抚养负担重的差异格局。应该抓住机遇采取促进就业、加强劳动力合理流动、加大人力资本积累、做实养老保险个人账户和适时推迟退休年龄等对策措施以获取人口红利。     

建立我国地方公债制度的探讨

目前，各级地方政府不管是来自正规渠道，还是非正规渠道，普遍存在大量债务。地方政府公债是国家公债制度的重要组成部分，举债权是各级政府应有的财权，我国建立地方公债制度已有可行性。设计地方公债制度，包括地方公债监管制度、地方公债发行和偿还制度、风险防范制度以及协调地方政府公债与中央政府国债的平衡等方面。     

生态工业园区促进城市经济增长了吗?——基于双重差分法的经验证据

作为绿色发展理念在工业领域内的一种具体实践形式,生态工业园区是解决生态环境恶化和促进区域经济可持续发展的重要途径之一.生态工业园区强调绿色、低碳和循环的发展模式,在兼顾经济发展的基础上,更多强调对生态环境的保护,符合我国建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的发展目标.利用全国范围内获批的生态工业园区这一准自然实验,运用全国283个城市经济社会统计数据,实证检验了生态工业园区对其所在城市经济增长的影响.实证研究发现:生态工业园区显著促进了所在城市的经济增长,在利用夜间灯光亮度以及改变实证策略等稳健性检验下该结论保持稳健.进一步研究表明,生态工业园区通过促进地区产业结构升级、加剧政府间竞争以及提高地区经济集聚水平等机制影响了城市经济发展.研究结论表明,生态工业园区对城市经济增长有显著的促进作用,绿水青山带来了金山银山.     

Market-implied ratings and their divergence from credit ratings

In this article, we investigate the divergence between credit ratings (CRs) and Moody's market-implied ratings (MIRs). Our evidence shows that rating gaps provide incremental information to the market regarding issuers' default risk over CRs alone in the short horizon and outperform CRs over extended horizons. The predictive ability of rating gaps is greater for more opaque and volatile issuers. Such predictability was more pronounced during the 2008 financial crisis but weakened in the post–Dodd–Frank Act period. This finding is consistent with credit rating agencies’ efforts to improve their performance when facing regulatory pressure. Moreover, our analysis identifies rating-gap signals that do (do not) lead to subsequent Moody's actions to place issuers on negative outlook and watchlists. We find that negative signals from MIR gaps have a real economic impact on issuers’ fundamentals such as profitability, leverage, investment, and default risk, thus supporting the recovery-efforts hypothesis.